Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from Eliot Crist.
Mike Evans OVER 1,049.5 receiving yards (-112, FanDuel — 1 unit)
Evans has now played and dominated for the six years in the NFL, going over 1,000 yards in every season and failing to see less than 118 targets in a single year of his career. In fact, he has only gone under 1,050 yards a single time in his career, but his prop line is set at 1,049.5 yards on FanDuel Sportsbook. Why so low? Because Tom Brady replaces Jameis Winston and people are concerned Brady has a noodle arm that doesn't match Evans' game? That is a bad reason, but we thank the books for buying in the narrative and giving us excellent value.
FTN’s Jeff Ratcliffe has NFL projections up and has Brady leading the league in passing yards and Evans finishing sixth overall in yards with 1,227. Jeff is one of the best in the business, and this is a very reasonable median projection … and it is still 177 yards over his line.
The concern over Brady is overblown and does not take into account that he was playing with the worst downfield personnel in football last year in New England. Even considering the talent he had to work with, he still finished with 60 deep ball attempts last year — 15th in the league — and his deep ball completion percentage was 41.7% — ninth-best. Yes, Winston led the league in deep balls, but he completed only 36.3% of them. Expect Brady to know how to attack with the best deep threat in the league and the value of Evans’ targets to soar.
While the Bucs are loaded at the skill positions and Evans will have more competition for touchdowns with Rob Gronkowski, receiver targets are going to go one or two places, Evans or Chris Godwin. We have seen for two straight years that both receivers can succeed and have massive years. Godwin taking slot duties will not drop Evans’ average depth of target, and Evans should certainly still have over 120 targets in 2019.
Last season, there were 18 players who saw over 110 targets and finished with an aDOT of over 10.0 yards; 15 of them went for more than 1,050 yards. Evans’ volume and role in this offense is going to have him put up yards in bunches. Evans led the league in aDOT among those 110-target guys, managing to put up just eight fewer yards than DeAndre Hopkins despite Hopkins catching a whopping 37 more passes.
This yardage over/under is flat-out too low and one of the best values on the board. Use the data, ignore the narrative and bet Evans over 1,049.5 yards.
