Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Gridiron season is finally upon us! This season I’ll be providing my NFL “Playbook” each week to highlight my favorite player prop bets on the slate. We have such great DFS and betting content daily, and I’m both honored and excited to deliver the first edition this week.
Chris Godwin Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards
(-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Last season Godwin racked up a 1,000-yard season for the third straight year. The Buccaneers have found their QB in Baker Mayfield, and Godwin has been a reliable No. 2 option at receiver. Per FTN’s StatsHub, Baker Mayfield threw for the third-most air yards in the NFL last season. Vertical play opportunities will continue to be a part of the TB offense, with Godwin and Mike Evans being the main beneficiaries. Godwin cleared this longest reception prop in 11 of his 19 games last season and now opens the year against the Commanders, who were the worst pass defense in the league in 2023. Washington allowed the fourth-most completions of 20-plus air yards last year (32).
Tony Pollard Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
(-110, Bet365)
New threads, same Pollard? Tony Pollard signed with the Titans this offseason after spending the first five years of his career with the Cowboys. He kicks the season off against a Chicago Bears defense that was great to end the year, but they were vulnerable to receiving running backs. Chicago allowed 1,003 receiving yards to running backs last year, most in the NFL. Pollard has gone over this number in 14 of his last 20 games, and even though it was in Dallas, his new QB Will Levis targeted running backs 20% of the time last year.
Evan Engram Over 43.5 Receiving Yards
(-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Engram put up career highs in both receptions (114) and receiving yards (963) last year. The Jaguars lost WR Calvin Ridley in the offseason, but they brought in veteran WR Gabe Davis and rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. Engram was Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target last season, pulling in a 21.6% target share. I expect volume to remain high this season even with the new additions due to the chemistry that Lawrence and Engram have built. Expect the Dolphins’ linebacker core to struggle at slowing down the veteran tight end.
Davante Adams Over 68.5 Receiving Yards
(-113, FanDuel Sportsbook)
We get to start the season with Davante Adams against the Chargers? The veteran wide receiver has a history of destroying the Chargers secondary. In four games as a Raider against LA, Adams is averaging 123.5 receiving yards and 1 touchdown per game. Adams will have a new QB this season with Gardner Minshew coming over from the Colts, but that is cause for no concern. Per FTN Data, Minshew averaged 14.8 first-read throws per game in 2023. With all of the news floating around about Adams being unhappy in Vegas, I believe the Raiders will keep the star wide receiver heavily involved in the gameplan weekly, expect a big opening week from 17.
Cooper Kupp Over 66.5 Receiving Yards
(-113, FanDuel Sportsbook)
A healthy Cooper Kupp with a line below 70 yards is an auto bet. Kupp had a clean training camp this summer and rolls into the year 100% healthy. The emergence of Puka Nacua will not hurt the Matthew Stafford-to-Kupp connection, I believe it makes them more dangerous. Even while dealing with injuries last season, Kupp commanded a 25.7% target share for the Rams and averaged 12.5 yards per catch. The total for this matchup is set at 52.5 points, the highest on the Week 1 slate. The Rams are also 3.5-point underdogs on the road in this one, so I’m expecting them to be playing from behind, which opens up more passing opportunities.
