MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
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Prop: Teddy Bridgewater OVER 3350.5 passing yards (-110, FOXBet)
Ron Rivera is now the head coach of the Washington Football Team, and in to Carolina comes Baylor’s Matt Rhule, who handpicked LSU passing game coordinator Joe Brady as his new offensive coordinator. Many believe that Carolina is going through a true rebuild, but there’s talent in place, and I believe this is more of a retooling situation. I fully expect the Panthers to be competitive in 2020, which means I’m fairly confident in Bridgewater.
Last year, Joe Burrow threw the ball 35.1 times per game for LSU, which is significant because Brady played a big part in calling the shots for the Tigers. And while Burrow was an exceptional college quarterback, the LSU offense showed us that Brady likes to open things up and attack defenses through the air. Can he run the same offense against NFL defenses? Unlikely. And can he trust Bridgewater to do the same things that Burrow could? Probably not. But it’s hard to envision a scenario in which Bridgewater isn’t throwing the ball something like 27-30 times per game. Brady also spent 2017-18 with the New Orleans Saints, where he surely learned a thing or two about scheming receivers open.
In five starts for the Saints last season, Bridgewater threw for 241 yards per game, which is a 3,856-yard pace over a full season. However, Bridgewater threw for 278.3 yards per game in his final three starts, which is a 4,453-yard pace over 16 games. Bridgewater clearly got better as he got more comfortable leading his team, and I don’t think it’s out of the question for him to fall somewhere in between the per-game numbers of his first two starts and those of his last three in 2020. Having a receiver as good as Michael Thomas obviously made things easier, but the Panthers arguably have a better overall receiving corps than the Saints did a year ago. D.J. Moore seems poised for a breakout campaign, and both Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson could have been the No. 2 option for New Orleans last season. Also, star running back Christian McCaffrey will turn a lot of short passes into big gains.
Six of Bridgewater’s 16 scheduled games will be against teams that ranked in the bottom 10 in passing defense efficiency last year, according to Football Outsiders. He also faces the Chargers, who were right on the outside of that list. On top of that, he’ll play Tampa Bay twice, and he also has a meeting with Kansas City. All three of those games could feature a significant amount of yardage.
Bridgewater might not be the long-term answer in Carolina, but he’s a solid stop-gap option, and he’s fully capable of executing Brady’s offense. As long as he can stay healthy, I think he’ll breeze by this total, which happens to be much lower at FOXBet than anywhere else.
