MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from ‘The Big Noise’ himself, Brad Evans.
Prop: Stefon Diggs UNDER 975.5 yards (-110, DraftKings)
After a successful stint in Minnesota with Kirk Cousins, the sure-handed wide receiver is off to Buffalo, an arid region for vertical production. Though his fantasy worth has declined, the change in scenery presents a betting buying opportunity. Here’s why:
- To be fair, Diggs is an accomplished route-runner who carves through zone defenses with the precision of a gold-medal skeet shooter. His success rates on curls, slants and quick outs leap off the screen. Equally dynamite down the field, he ranked No. 3 in yards per target (12.1), No. 4 in yards per route (2.97), No. 9 in average depth of target (15.15) and No. 17 in total air yards last year. In other words, the man executes at a high level in various scenarios.
- However, Diggs reached stratospheric heights thanks to the pinpoint accuracy of Cousins. Yes, the QB is off the mark on gender reveal tosses, but in reality the Vikings passer is one of the sharpest throwers in the league. Last season, he ranked QB4 in adjusted completion percentage. Josh Allen, meanwhile, isn’t a recommended ax-throwing partner. In 2019, he was QB20 or lower in several completion metrics, most notably deep-ball (QB33), red zone (QB46) and overall adjusted (QB30). The downgrade cannot be overstated.
- The geographic relocation is a parallel move in workload terms. Buffalo called “pass” 58.8% of the time in ‘19, a bit ahead of Minnesota (48.0%). Of course, Allen tucked and ran it on a lot of those, something he's likely to keep doing. Yes, Diggs won’t have to battle Adam Thielen for passer affections, but John Brown, who accounted for 25.7% of the Bills’ target share last fall, is no sack of potatoes. Slot man Cole Beasley will also be heavily involved. Add it up and 100-110 targets could be Diggs’ ceiling.
Bottom line, Allen has reportedly worked feverishly to improve his accuracy this offseason. Still, unless he morphs into Jim Kelly circa ‘90, Diggs will have to maximize every target to cross the proposed threshold. Fat chance. A finish in the 900- to 925-yard range feels right.
