NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
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Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from ‘The Big Noise’ himself, Brad Evans.
Prop: Leonard Fournette OVER 850.5 rush yards (-110, DraftKings)
Do you like fistfulls of cash money? It appears DK is offering, freely and generously. The above line is an absolute insult to the Jaguars running back who has unfairly gained a negative reputation among fantasy and bettors alike. Did he whizz in everyone’s nachos or something? Enough with the verbal grenades. Show the man some respect. Here’s why:
- Running behind an offensive line that ranked in the lower quarter of the league last season in run-blocking efficiency and facing eight or more men in the box 31.7% of the time, Fournette chugged along with the vim and vigor of a runaway beer truck. On 265 carries, he accumulated 1,152 ground yards, logging an exhaustive 90.1% of the Jags opportunity share.
- On closer inspection, the plowshare shined in multiple advanced categories. On between-the-tackles carries he routinely plowed through would-be tacklers, generating 3.22 yards after contact per attempt while forcing a missed tackle 19.9% of the time. He also registered 11 runs of 15 or more yards, the eighth-most in the NFL.
- Sure, Chris Thompson and Colorado product Laviska Shenault will reduce his workload, but their impact is primarily tied to Fournette’s receiving production. As long as he remains upright, the rusher — in likely his last season in Jacksonville — should easily command upwards of 17-19 carries per game. Don’t fret about negative gamescripts. He and the Jags experienced plenty of deficits last season and he obliterated the proposed total.
Bottom line, Jacksonville openly shopped Fournette this past offseason, but found no proper suitor. Bound to be run into the ground, he’s a high-volume RB who’ll smash and dash his way to 1,000 or more ground yards this fall. Whether in fantasy or betting, the battering ram packs oodles of profit potential. Chase the cat.
