MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
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Kenyan Drake over 975.5 -110 – DraftKings – 1 Unit AND Kenyan Drake leads the league in rushing +2200 – FanDuel – 0.25 units
Drake was transitioned tagged this offseason and is now set to be the bell-cow back for the Arizona Cardinals this season. He was traded after Week 8 last year, where he had 15 or more carries and played in over 69% of the snaps in all but one game. He averaged 15.3 carries per game as a Cardinal, and his full-season pace would have been 246 carries. Of the 11 backs last year who carried the ball 245 or more times, only two failed to go over the 1,000-yard mark, Le'Veon Bell and Sony Michel, two of the least efficient backs in the league.
In fact, of the 20 backs to see over 200 total carries, a pace Drake eviscerated, only five failed to rush over 1,000 yards, all but one of which averaged 3.8 or fewer yards per carry. While yards per carry is an overrated statistic, Drake has averaged 4.8 and 4.5 YPC in the last two seasons. Simply put, his efficiency and volume would have to take a nosedive to not soar past this number.
The Cardinals offense is very running back-friendly. They posted a top-five running back performance in 2019, and they have the pace of play that leads to more opportunities. The Cardinals had the fifth-highest second-to-snap rate in the NFL last season, per the pace tool, and ran the ball on 48.8% of their plays in their last three games, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
The Cardinals are set to be a much-improved team this year and are due for more positive touchdown regression than any team in the league after scoring just 0.19 points per snap, the lowest rate in the league. As they improved down the stretch, winning two of their final three games, they ran at a clip similar to the Ravens, 49ers and Titans. If they are able to be more competitive and turn things around, Drake has 28-plus-carry upside, making him worth taking a shot at 22-1 to lead the league in rushing.
Find more Kenyan Drake props here.
