Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day, our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from Anthony Amico.
Prop: Deshaun Watson NFL MVP (+2500, DraftKings)
The NFL MVP looks like it could easily be a yearly back and forth between Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes after the seasons they each put up in 2019 and 2018, respectively. Since the NFL draft, Dak Prescott has received a lot of love as a good mid-tier bet who has now moved to be one of the favorites. However, Watson’s name deserves to be mentioned as well. Here’s why:
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While he has not had the outlier TD season of Jackson and Mahomes, Watson has been extremely productive in his own right. He has averaged 294.7 yards per game and 7.5 yards per opportunity (pass or rush) the past two seasons. That compares favorably with both Jackson (303/7.4) and Mahomes (331.17/8.3) in their MVP seasons (playoffs included, minimum 30 snaps). As a pass/run threat, Watson finds himself squarely in between our last two MVPs, keeping him primed for elite production in 2020.
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The trade of DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona has caused Watson to lose some luster, but not enough has been mentioned of the additions of Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb. Since he entered the league in 2014, Cooks has been one of the most efficient WRs in football, averaging 9.3 yards per target. That ranks seventh among WRs with at least 300 targets in that time frame. Cobb, meanwhile, averaged 10 yards per target just last year with Dallas. There is a great chance here for Houston to not just match, but exceed what Hopkins brought to the Texans in the aggregate.
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Price. Though Watson is 25/1 on DK, he is 20/1 or worse on every other sportsbook. This line offers tremendous value compared to other locations. He also provides a lot more bang for your buck than Mahomes (+400), Jackson (+700) and Prescott (+1400).
It is easy to lose sight of the upside Watson possesses in 2020, but that would cause you to miss out on a fantastic value. Watson is one of the premier young QBs in the NFL, and he is likely seeing discounted odds at winning the league MVP.
