Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from Brad Evans.
Darren Waller OVER 900.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
Waller crawled out from the deepest recesses of fantasy football drafts to deliver an unbelievable breakout season. He harnessed his raw athleticism, sprinted from his off-the-field-plagued past and became an indispensable target for Derek Carr. Still, disrespected here’s why firing off on the above future is smart money:
- Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards’ arrival may signal a reduced workload for Waller, but don’t be so easily duped. The tight end may slice a small chunk off last year’s 117-target total, but he was the definition of sure-handed, reeling in 78.3% of his passes from Carr. His resulting 90 receptions and 1,146 yards pulverized the above total. Even if his target share dips from 23.8% to around the 19-21 range, he should coast past 75 receptions.
- Inflicting damage in the open field is one of Waller’s finest qualities. Slashing and dashing through traffic he ranked TE6 in YAC per reception (6.60) last fall. Also a top performer in total air yards (TE5) and RACR (TE2), which measures a receiver’s yards created, he’s an advanced analytics dreamboat. Generating chunk gains from otherwise short-distanced connections only solidifies his odds of cashing the over.
- Carr, whether throwing passes normally or behind his back, is one of the most accurate throwers in the league. Last season on 32.1 attempts per game he ranked No. 2 in adjusted completion percentage. His ability to thread balls through keyholes is critical to Waller’s success. Also not too shabby on chucks beyond 20 yards (93.1 deep-ball passer rating in ‘19), he bolsters the TE’s chances for again reaching 1,000 yards, especially if Las Vegas lives up to their “throw more” claims.
Bottom line, the above line is Dairy Queen ice cream soft. As people daydream about the potential of Ruggs and Edwards, Carr’s Mr. Reliable is the ultimate reality to eclipse any proposed yardage total.
