Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from Eliot Crist.
D.J. Moore OVER 1,050 receiving yards (1 unit) — DraftKings
D.J. Moore leads league in receiving (0.25 units) — FanDuel
Moore burst onto the scene in his first two seasons, going for 1,175 receiving yards last season after having a strong rookie campaign that featured 788 total receiving yards. Last year, he became the unquestioned top target in Carolina, finishing with 135 targets and commanding 32.3% of his team's air yards while seeing 22.9% of his team's targets.
Moore comes into the 2020 season as the hot name in fantasy, but his player prop number on Draftkings Sportsbook of just 1,050.5 yards is not matching the hype. While his 1,249.5-yard line on FoxBet does do that, and it creates a nice middle opportunity, I would rather count my money by taking the over 1,050.5 yards for Moore.
In 2019, there were 13 players with 100 or more targets who also saw at least 32% of their teams air yards, and 11 of them finished with over 1,051 yards. There is no reason for his prop number to be lower than his total yards from last year, as only injury will stop him from being the top receiver on the Panthers. This year's Panthers team hired Joe Brady from LSU to run a pass-happy, up-tempo offense, which should increase his volume. They also lost Luke Keuchly and project to have one of the worst defenses in football.
As I write this, the Panthers are projected to win just 5.5 games — that’s more good news for Moore. In his career when the Panthers are underdogs, he has put up bigger numbers, averaging 12.7 more yards, 0.9 more receptions and 1.41 more targets per game. He also gets a QB upgrade in Teddy Bridgewater from Kyle Allen, who was one of the league's most inaccurate quarterbacks. While Bridgewater doesn't take chances down field, he is extremely accurate and will set Moore up for plenty run-after-the-catch opportunities. Last year, Moore finished eighth among all receivers in yards after catch and is one of the league's most dynamic playmakers with the ball in his hands.
Moore beat 1,050.5 yards in just 15 games last year and the stars are aligned for him to smash it again in 2020. In fact, while betting Moore over on his prop yardage seems like easy money, there is more value on his long-shot props. On FanDuel Sportsbook, he is +6600 to lead the league in receiving yards. He finished eighth in receiving yards last season despite missing a game and having the 72nd-best target accuracy. Last year, Michael Thomas led the league in both yards and best target accuracy and the quarterback he had for multiple games is now Moore’s new quarterback. I’m all in on Moore’s over and am willing to sprinkle something on him leading the league in receiving yards as well.
