MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from Brad Evans.
Davante Adams OVER 7.5 touchdowns (-121, DraftKings)
Limited by a hampering dose of plantar fascia last season, Adams simply wasn’t his usual end-zone spiking self. Though he registered a whopping 30.3% of the Packers’ target share, he posted an uncharacteristic five touchdowns. The wide receiver, however, is in a favorable spot to leave investors in the green this season. Here’s why:
- On an island full of misfit toys, Adams is a mint condition Optimus Prime still in the box. More doesn’t meet the eye when one looks around at his competition for targets — Allen Lazard, Marques Valdes-Scantling, Jace Sternberger, Equanimeous St. Brown, Jake Kumerow, whoever the hell Reggie Begelton is. Though HC Matt LaFleur is committed to a more conservative ground-heavy brand, the veteran wideout should again command a mammoth target share, one that could easily set the pace among NFL wide receivers.
- Recent history supports the above prognostication. Just journey back to 2018, an enjoyable time when the world wasn’t consumed by a ceaseless pandemic. That fall, Adams sat comfortably in the captain’s seat in TDs at his position. Whether on fades, slants or quick outs, he consistently demoralized DBs, often emerging victorious in one-on-one battles. Over 15 games, he was targeted 46 times inside the red-zone (28.4 red-zone TGT%), hauling in 13 touchdowns. What’s more remarkable, Aaron Rodgers ranked QB50 in red-zone completion percentage that year. Adams’ tireless efforts, on 162 Rodgers looks overall, could easily resurface this season.
Bottom line, selling someone on the over is equivalent to peddling a lamb chop to your corpulent terrier — minimal convincing required. Adams, also blessed with the 13th-easiest schedule for fantasy wide receivers, is in a prime smash position. Only another severe injury will prevent him from reaching double-figures in touchdowns. Invest wisely. Relish the windfall.
