Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 7 is here and the props over at PrizePicks are really, really intriguing. I feel like each week the props become more and more difficult to make a stand on and that is the case for this weekend.
If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it’s simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
- Three-pick entry pays 5x
- Four-pick entry pays 10x
Let’s look at Week 7, shall we?
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns (@ CIN)
Projected score: 18.5 points; the pick: OVER
At 18.5 points, this is a lofty number, but Hunt will have every opportunity to exceed that mark in this spot. He has been a little banged up over the last two weeks and limped into the worst matchup possible for running backs last week in Pittsburgh. Now he faces a Bengals team that should allow the Browns to do what they do best — run the football. 36% of the yards allowed by the Bengals this season have come via the run, the sixth-highest rate in football. Meanwhile, 47.2% of the yardage from this Cleveland offense has come on the ground, trailing only Baltimore for the season. Cincinnati is also coughing up a healthy 142.3 rushing yards per contest, the sixth-most in the NFL. Hunt has handled the majority of the backfield touches since Nick Chubb went down and should see another 22-25 touches on Sunday afternoon.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. CLE)
Projected score: 15 points; the pick: OVER
Staying in the same game, I really love Boyd in this spot in any format. PrizePicks or as an overlooked GPP option, Boyd is in a really nice situation. For starters, the Browns secondary has been the area to attack this defense already and now Greedy Williams is on injured reserve. Denzel Ward has played well for Cleveland but with Boyd lining up in the slot nearly 85% of the time this season, he should avoid him. To add to that, the Browns are coughing up the third-most yards per game (84.7) and second-most fantasy points per game (20.5) to opposing slot receivers. The Bengals are underdogs in this game and are facing a Browns defense that has been a pass funnel for the majority of the season. Do not sleep on Boyd this weekend.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions (@ ATL)
Projected score: 9.5 points; the pick: OVER
I’m hammering the over here, as Hockenson is in an elite matchup in a very good game environment. The total for this game is hovering around 56 points and Hockenson gets to face a Falcons defense that is allowing 1.2 touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends this season, the highest number in football. The second-year tight end has had plenty of scoring opportunities, too, ranking second at the position in end zone targets. Meanwhile, despite playing alongside Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, Hockenson has seen 24% of Detroit’s end zone looks, the highest mark among all tight ends with at least 15 total targets on the season. Atlanta has also been a poor red-zone defense, surrendering touchdowns on 73.9% of trips on the year, the fifth-worst mark in the league.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills (@ NYJ)
Projected score: 17.5 points; the pick: OVER
The Buffalo offense has slowed down over the last two weeks but that hasn’t translated to Diggs struggling in fantasy. He’s reached the 100-yard mark or scored a touchdown in all but one game this season and is now third in the NFL in receiving (555), fourth in targets (59) and third in receptions (42). The Bills should get back on track this week against the Jets and Diggs will torch whoever lines up across from him. Pierre Desir has been one of the worst corners in football thus far, surrendering 2.60 fantasy points per target and nearly half a fantasy point per coverage snap. He’s also allowed 19 receptions in coverage, though a whopping five of them have gone for touchdowns.
Mike Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers (@ NO)
Projected score: 19.0 points; the pick: UNDER
Davis is coming off his worst game since entering the starting lineup in Week 6, though he still found the end zone. The catches and targets should be back up in this game, but I worry about his efficiency against a really tough Saints run defense that is allowing less than a rushing touchdown per game so far this season. They also haven’t allowed an opposing running back to rush for 100 yards in over three years and are currently just below league average in receptions allowed per game to opposing backfields. It’s possible that Davis gets to this number off his passing game work alone, but I see this as more of a game for Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore.
