Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
While we aren’t lucky enough to have Tuesday night football in Week 6, we are lucky enough to have another Monday night double-header this week, kicking off with the Chiefs and Bills at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the Cowboys and Cardinals at 8:15 p.m. ET. Both games are included on the PrizePicks slate, giving us more options in the pick pool than we are accustomed to on Monday nights.
Speaking of “PrizePicks,” it’s a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production.
The format is simple. You pick two, three, or four players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option that still rewards you for hitting some of your picks, only with a lesser payout.
I will provide a trio of picks that I think carry value Monday, as well as a list of some other options to consider on the slate.
The scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Cole Beasley, WR, Buffalo Bills
Projected score: 9.5; the pick: OVER
While not a sexy pick by any means (unless you’re into his Thor-like flow that sits underneath his helmet), Beasley is someone who gets the job done on a consistent basis without garnering much attention.. Regardless of whether or not John Brown plays, Beasley should maintain a stable role in the offense, as he comes in second to only Stefon Diggs in target share (15.38%) through five weeks.
On top of that, the Chiefs have done a great job limiting downfield damage this season, allowing the fourth-least total passing yards and the eighth fewest air yards per pass attempt (6.6). This could set up to for a busier Beasley game, who even in the slot against Tyrann Mathieu, draws the most favorable individual matchup (graded 70.8 out of 100) per Jeff Ratcliffe’s WR/CB tool, while John Brown (41.6) and Stefon Diggs (67.2) have incrementally tougher draws. At the end of the day, you need roughly 5 catches for 46 yards to take you to the promised land here, something that should be something not only attainable but surpassable in such an offensive-power game environment for Beasley.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Projected score: 13.0; the pick: OVER
Sure, there are question marks surrounding this Cowboys offense with Andy Dalton manning the ship now that Dak Prescott is out, but one thing is certain – their defense is still horrendous and their offense is going to need to be firing on all cylinders if they want to win. With Amari Cooper going head-to-head with Patrick Peterson on Monday night, it could be Lamb’s time to shine out of the slot. He’s posted at least five catches for 50 yards in every game to start his career and should be shadowed by Byron Murphy in the slot. While Murphy has limited receivers to 14/196/1 on 25 targets this season, he allowed 10 touchdowns in coverage last season, showing there is room to succeed in this matchup.
Dalton also isn’t some rookie QB who hasn’t played a down in the NFL. He’s a veteran quarterback who’s been here before and has contributed to successful wide receiver seasons in Cincinnati, making the downgrade at quarterback potentially not as severe as it may seem at first glance. Given the offensive-nature of this game environment, Lamb should be involved early and often in the short-field work and still makes for a legitimate red-zone threat, carrying a 16.67% red-zone target share into the game, the same rate as the team’s WR1, Amari Cooper.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Projected score: 25; the pick: OVER
Want to know just how bad the Cowboys defense has been this season? They’ve allowed the seventh-most passing touchdowns (12), have recorded the least amount of interceptions (one), the fourth most air yards per attempt (8.8), the 12th most passing yards per game (248.6) and the fifth-highest quarterback rating (107.9). These numbers are also taken against teams that have completed their Week 6 games while the Cowboys have only played five. Given how bad this defense has been, it’s hard to envision any improvements against the sophomore superstar, Kyler Murray.
Murray has topped 25 fantasy points in three of his first five games this season, with one of them being a game where he recorded only 133 passing yards against the Panthers, and the other being a three-interception performance against the Lions. Outside of that, he’s been picture-perfect and fresh off of a 380-yard performance against the Jets. On top of the improved passing upside this season, Murray has averaged almost 60 rushing yards per game with a total of five rushing scores to his eight touchdowns through the air. Much of this can be attributed to the Cardinals’ offensive line, who have only allowed a 16.3% pressure rate (good for fifth-best in the NFL). Given the expected pace of this game and the attackable nature of the Dallas secondary with time to throw in the pocket, it’s hard to imagine Murray not having an absolute field day both on the ground and through the air, as he could very well be the overall QB1 this week.
