Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 6 is here and the props over at PrizePicks are really, really intriguing. I feel like each week the props become more and more difficult to make a stand on and that is the case for this weekend.
If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it’s simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
- Three-pick entry pays 5x
- Four-pick entry pays 10x
Let’s look at Week 6, shall we?
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears (@ CAR)
Projected points: 16.0; the pick: OVER
This is a different version of Montgomery. In Chicago’s first game of the season without Tarik Cohen back in Week 4, Montgomery ran a career-high 35 pass routes and saw a career-high six targets. And then last Thursday night, he surpassed that career-high with eight targets, hauling in seven of them. Since Week 4, Montgomery leads all running backs in pass routes with 66 and the uptick in passing work is huge on a site like PrizePicks, which offers a full point per reception. Now, he gets to face a Carolina run defense that isn’t good to start with and will be without Kawann Short for the rest of the season while Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos could also be out on that defensive line. The Panthers are coughing up 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game on the season, tied for the third-most in football, while 57 percent of the touchdowns scored against this defense have come on the ground, the highest rate in the NFL.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Cleveland Browns (@ PIT)
Projected points: 15.0; the pick: OVER
Unsurprisingly, Beckham did not have a repeat performance against a strong Colts defense last week but still posted a respectable 5-for-58 line. The Browns remain a run-first offense, but Beckham is still seeing a massive target share, ranking eighth in the NFL in that department (27.5%). And if the Browns can’t get the running game going against the league’s top run defense, they might have to rely on Beckham and the passing game here. Meanwhile, the Steelers just allowed Travis Fulgham to have the game of his life and are surrendering 16.4 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers on the left side of the formation, good for the third-most in the league. That bodes well for Beckham, who is lining up as the left wide receiver a healthy 42 percent of the time.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (vs CIN)
Projected points: 17.5; the pick: OVER
This one may seem a bit risky, but I think Taylor finally breaks out in this game. Indianapolis’ passing game has been dormant and ugly with Philip Rivers at the helm, and I think the Colts finally go back to running their offense through Taylor, who has seen an underwhelming workload since Week 2. If that is the case, he should smash, facing a Bengals run defense that has allowed eight runs of 20 yards or more thus far, the most in the NFL. They are also allowing the fifth-most open field yards and are only stuffing 12 percent of carries at or behind the line of scrimmage, the seventh-lowest rate in football. If my hunch on an increased workload is correct, Taylor should be able to eclipse this number in a very good matchup.
Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers (vs CHI)
Projected points: 18.0; the pick: UNDER
I absolutely love what Anderson has done this season. He’s reached the 100-yard mark in three of five games and finished at 99 receiving yards in one of those games. Anderson has been great, but this is a very difficult matchup. The Bears have allowed just four receiving touchdowns this season, the fewest in football, and only one of them was to a wide receiver. That came last week on Mike Evans’ two-yard touchdown. Chicago has also been an elite red zone defense this season, allowing touchdowns on just 36.8 percent of opposing scoring trips, easily the lowest rate in the NFL.
Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs CLE)
Projected points: 13.8; the pick: UNDER
I am slightly taking the under here on Claypool, who broke the Week 5 slate with his four-touchdown performance. It was an awesome game, and he is going to be a key cog in this offense going forward. However, Diontae Johnson could play in this game and actually get meaningful snaps. Meanwhile, there is some squeaky wheel steam surrounding JuJu Smith-Schuster heading into this game, and the matchup benefits him anyway. Smith-Schuster is operating out of the slot 79.5 percent of the time while the Browns are coughing up a league-leading 1.0 touchdowns, 10.0 targets and 7.4 receptions per game (both third-most) to opposing receivers from the slot this season.
