Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
After a wild Week 4 around the NFL that included a handful of schedule changes due to COVID-19, we’re graced with not one, but two Monday night games, as the Patriots/Chiefs game will act as the opener for the regularly scheduled Packers/Falcons game. This gives us double the number of options on the PrizePicks slate, making it a much stronger player pool.
Speaking of “PrizePicks,” it’s a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production.
The format is simple. You pick two, three, or four players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option that still rewards you for hitting some of your picks, only with a lesser payout.
I will provide a trio of picks that I think carry value Monday.
The scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
Projected score: 20.5; the pick: OVER
After a disappointing Week 3 performance, Ryan’s Week 4 date with the Packers puts him in arguably the best bounceback spot that a quarterback could ask for. The Packers’ defense has struggled to defend the passing game this season, ranking 20th in pass DVOA, while allowing the highest completion percentage in the league (72.3%), the third-highest passer rating (113.4) and the third-most yards per attempt (8.4). Much of this stems from the fact that their defensive line is getting little to no pressure on quarterbacks. Through three games, the Packers hold the eighth-lowest blitz rate in the league (20.4%), which has led to them ranking 28th in pressures (18).
If there’s one thing that you cannot give Ryan, it’s time in the pocket. We saw a similar case in Week 1 against the Seahawks, as Ryan was given a ridiculous amount of time to throw the football, which ended up netting him 450 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns. The over/under for this game sits at 57 (per DraftKings Sportsbook), creating the perfect environment for Ryan to top 20.5 fantasy points for the third time this season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Projected score: 17.0; the pick: OVER
17 points is a lofty goal, especially for a rookie running back against a traditionally stout Patriots defense. The silver lining? Edwards-Helaire’s workload has been one of the most elite in the NFL throughout the first three weeks. He’s logged at least 25 touches in two of his three games, while he’s secured 11 catches over the last two games on 15 total targets. The sheer opportunity that he’s receiving puts him at an advantage off the bat.
On top of that, the once-stout Patriots’ run-defense has somewhat sputtered out of the gate in 2020, as they’ve allowed over 100 rushing yards per game and two rushing touchdowns through their first three games. The Chiefs should also be operating with a positive game script for most of the game, as they come in as 10.5-point favorites.
Rex Burkhead, RB, New England Patriots
Projected score: 11.5; the pick: UNDER
Burkhead scored over 30 fantasy points last week. 2020, eh? While typically a 34-point outburst from a running back leads to backfield changes and potential breakouts, the situation is a bit different for Burkhead.
Despite his three scores last week, he hasn’t received more than seven touches on the ground yet this season, while his 13 total touches (six rushing attempts, seven catches) in Week 3 marked a season-high. Sony Michel being out for Monday night could help Burkhead, but the biggest worry is the fact that James White is back with the team after a two-week absence. In the one game that White played this season, Burkhead failed to record a single catch, while logging seven carries for 32 yards.
It can be assumed that White will immediately reclaim the passing-down role considering the resume he’s put together in that position over the last few seasons. Michel’s absence could be a factor, but the team will also give carries to J.J. Taylor (11 carries last week), and Damien Harris could be active for this game as well. Without a solidified role, it’s way too hard to trust Burkhead to log enough touches to hit the over here.
