Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Another NFL Sunday has come and gone, and we are one Monday night game away from being three full weeks through the 2020 NFL season. Sunday provided us with offensive fireworks, but it’s hard to imagine any game topping Monday’s, as we have a potential AFC Championship preview between the Chiefs and the Ravens. The over/under sits at 54 (per DraftKings Sportsbook), setting up for a massive amount of offense.
My focus for this article will be around a site called “PrizePicks,” a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production.
The format is simple. You pick two, three or four players and predict whether they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option that still rewards you for hitting some of your picks, only with a lesser payout.
I will provide a trio of picks that I think carry value Monday, from both the overall pool of selections as well as the first-half contests that PrizePicks offers, as you have the ability to combine the entries.
The scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Projected score: 22.6; the pick: OVER
In this same matchup last season, Mahomes put together a brilliant performance, posting 374 yards and a trio of touchdowns. That game was also played without his No. 1 receiver, Tyreek Hill. The Ravens defense tried to get pressure on Mahomes early and often in that game, blitzing him on over 40% of his dropbacks. Unfortunately for the Ravens, they were only able to pressure on 25.6% of those blitzes while recording only a single sack because of how quickly Mahomes is able to get the ball out of his hands. Through two games in 2020, the story seems to be the same for the Ravens’ defensive line, as they rank top-five in the NFL in pressures per dropback (26.7%) but are only posting a 6.2% adjusted sack rate.
Combine that with the fact that the Chiefs offensive line is only allowing a 4.5% adjusted sack rate (seventh-best in NFL) and Mahomes should have plenty of time to pick his spots in the pocket. Given the high over/under, the strong pass protection for Mahomes and the fact that the Ravens typically neutralize the ground game, this game sets up for a massive Mahomes performance, as he should soar past 22.6 fantasy points.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Projected score: 13.0 (first half); the pick: OVER
Being the cheat code that he is, Jackson had one game last season where he looked incredibly out of sorts and that was against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs’ defense did an incredible job limiting Jackson’s ground-game and keeping him in the pocket, forcing him to attempt a career-high 43 pass attempts while holding him under 10 rushing attempts.
While that may be their plan of attack again Monday, Jackson has shown positive strides as a pocket passer early in 2020, as he went 16-of-19 from the pocket in Week 2 against the Texans. On top of that, the Chiefs have been rather generous to the QB position through the first two weeks, allowing 22.5 fantasy points per game, while looking a bit more vulnerable on the ground. In Week 1, they allowed Deshaun Watson to scramble for 27 yards and a touchdown while allowing rookie Justin Herbert to run for 18 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. While the rushing yardage from a quarterback perspective hasn’t been there against this defense, the touchdowns have and there isn’t a more dangerous quarterback on the ground than Jackson.
His goal of 13 first-half fantasy points feels low, as he only needs roughly 125 passing yards, a touchdown and a few rushing bursts, something he is more than capable of accomplishing in a single quarter.
Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Projected score: 14.0; the pick: UNDER
The home-run play is coming for Brown, it just likely won’t be in this one. While the speedy second-year wideout has the legitimate potential to post 14 fantasy points on a single play, the Chiefs are a defensive unit that has been put together to neutralize this type of threat.
The Chiefs defense limited downfield damage and ranked in the top half of the league in aDOT allowed (8.2 yards) in 2019 and limited Brown to two catches on nine targets in this matchup last season. Now, after adding rookie L'Jarius Sneed, the Chiefs rank fifth in the NFL in DvP against wide receivers through the first two weeks, allowing only 23.5 fantasy points per game to the position. There may be an uptick in volume for Brown considering the high total for the game, but this matchup is not a cakewalk by any means. As long as he stays out of the end zone, he should float under 14 fantasy points.
