Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We made it.
The NFL season is back and with it, so is fantasy football in every single aspect. Seasonal and DFS, including all different types of daily fantasy football. If you are not familiar with PrizePicks, let me help you get acquainted.
PrizePicks is a DFS site that focuses on props. And it is very simple. Find a player prop and decide whether you believe that player will go over or under that prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
- Three-pick entry pays 5x
- Four-pick entry pays 10x
Each Friday, I will provide some of my favorite props over at PrizePicks with analysis on why I believe a player will go over or under their assigned prop. So let’s dive into some of the props that stand out most to me for Week 1.
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (@ CAR)
Projected score: 19.2 points; the pick: OVER
19.2 fantasy points is a rather lofty number. The Carolina Panthers, however, are a rather awful run defense. In 2019, the Panthers surrendered 1.9 rushing touchdowns per game, easily the highest number in the NFL. Carolina’s defense also sported an explosive run rate of 16%, which was the worst clip in all of football. And per Football Outsiders, the Panthers allowed the most second-level yards in the league (1.49), which are yards earned by opposing running backs more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries. 38.3% of the total yardage surrendered by this Carolina defense in 2019 came via the run, the second-highest rate in the league. This game features a close spread, which is great for Jacobs, as the Raiders were just 27th in neutral-script pass rate a season ago at 53%. Jacobs isn’t going to have the pass-catching ceiling as other backs but in a competitive game against a bad run defense, he should get a ton of carries.
D.J. Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers (vs. LVR)
Projected score: 14.8 points; the pick: OVER
Staying in the same game, I am really high on Moore this week. Vegas has a very exploitable pass defense and are a good matchup for Moore, new head coach Joe Brady and what this Carolina offense wants to do. Brady’s offense is predicated on getting playmakers the ball in space and letting them work after the catch. I’m sure Moore will like that, who was eighth in the NFL in yards after the catch a season ago (382). The matchup is great, as the Raiders surrendered the fourth-most YAC in football a season ago. This secondary also gives up explosive plays, as they allowed the fifth-highest average depth of target in the league (9.4 yards). Facing rookie cornerback Damon Arnette, Moore is primed for a great opening week.
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks (@ ATL)
Projected score: 15.5 points; the pick: UNDER
Many might see the matchup as a smash spot for Carson, but not so fast. Atlanta has been the premiere matchup for pass-catching running backs over the last handful of years, but they have been strong at straight-up defending the run. In fact, the Falcons stuffed a healthy 22% of the carries against them last year, good for the fifth-best clip in the league. And we know Carson isn’t going to see massive involvement in the passing game, while head coach Pete Carroll recently stated that he plans to use all four running backs in some capacity this weekend. That definitely worries me a bit. This game has plenty of shootout potential but with two bad pass rushes, I expect the production to come from the passing games.
