Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 13

Thanksgiving night features a battle of the AFC vs. NFC with the Dolphins taking on the Packers in the final game of the holiday slate. After a 2-6 start, Miami has crawled its way back into the playoff mix, ripping off three consecutive wins to get to 5-6. They’re currently on the outside looking in, holding the eighth seed in the AFC. The offense has started to turn the corner with Tua Tagovailoa back under center, but they’ll have their work cut out for them in Lambeau, facing a Packers defense ranked 11th in DVOA against the pass (-8.5%).

At 8-3, the Packers hold the sixth seed in the NFC without a lot of breathing room in a loaded division. They’re two games behind Detroit (10-1), barring an upset, and one behind Minnesota (9-2), needing to take care of business at home to stay in the race.

Let’s take a look at my same-game parlay for this prime time game.

Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers

Tua Tagovailoa 175+ Passing Yards

207-plus passing yards in six out of seven (85.7%) games, including each of the last five, averaging 251.4 yards on 33.1 dropbacks.
Season-high 40 dropbacks in Week 12, throwing over 300 yards (317) for the first time since Week 1 (338).
The Packers will be without their top cornerback Jaire Alexander in Week 13.

Tyreek Hill 3+ Receptions and 25+ Receiving Yards

At least 4 receptions and 40 receiving yards in seven out of 11 (63.6%) games averaging 4.5 grabs on 6.6 targets for 51.9 yards.
At least 4 receptions and 40 receiving yards on five out of seven (71.4%) games with Tua Tagovailoa, averaging five grabs on 7.1 targets for 61.6 yards.
Team-high 82% route participation rate. 19% target share, and 34.9% air yard share.
59.9 rating on the WR/CB Matchup Tool, 21st among all receivers in Week 13, facing Keisean Nixon as the primary defender.

Jaylen Waddle 2+ Receptions and 25+ Receiving Yards

BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 18: Miami Dolphins wide receivers Tyreek Hill (10) and Jaylen Waddle (17) line up next to each other on the line of scrimmage during the Miami Dolphins versus Baltimore Ravens NFL game at M&T Bank Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Baltimore, MD (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire) — BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 18: Miami Dolphins wide receivers Tyreek Hill (10) and Jaylen Waddle (17) line up next to each other on the line of scrimmage during the Miami Dolphins versus Baltimore Ravens NFL game at M&T Bank Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Baltimore, MD (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

At least 2 receptions and 26 receiving yards in nine out of 11 (81.8%) games, averaging 3.7 grabs on 5.1 targets for 51.9 yards.
At least 2 receptions and 37 receiving yards in six out of seven (85.7%) games with Tua Tagovailoa, averaging four grabs on five targets for 64.6 yards.
Season-high in targets (9), receptions (8) and receiving yards (144) in Week 12, seeing a 21.4% target share on the day, leading Miami with a 45.4% air yard share.
51.5 rating on the WR/CB Matchup Tool, 34th among all receivers in Week 13, facing Carrington Valentine as the primary defender.

De’Von Achane 25+ Rushing and Receiving Yards

At least 29 rushing and receiving yards in 10 out of 12 (90.9%) games, averaging 16.4 touches on 17 opportunities for 85 yards from scrimmage.
At least 52 rushing and receiving yards in all seven games with Tua Tagovailoa, averaging 19 touches on 19.4 opportunities for 106.6 yards from scrimmage, the fourth-most in the NFL.
Team-high 26.7% opportunity share, 32.3% touch share, and 41.8% rush share.

Josh Jacobs 25+ Rushing and Receiving Yards

At least 48 rushing and receiving yards in every game (11), averaging 20.5 touches on 21.1 opportunities for 102.7 yards from scrimmage, the fourth most in the NFL.
Team-high 34.1% opportunity share, 41% touch share, and 58.2% rush share.
The Dolphins are 26th in DVOA against the rush (-1.0%).
Per the DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against Tool, running backs see a 1% boost in production against Miami.