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Prime-Time Props — Conference Championship Sunday (Chiefs vs. Bills)

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The last game ahead of the Super Bowl features the top two teams in the AFC in a Week 11 rematch with Josh Allen and the Bills taking on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Kansas City.

Here’s what I’m looking at for a same-game parlay in the AFC Championship.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Same-Game Parlay

Patrick Mahomes 175+ Passing & Rushing Yards

  • At least 180 passing and rushing yards 16 out of 17 games (94.1%), falling two yards short in the only miss (Week 15 vs. Cleveland), averaging 241.5 passing yards on 35.6 dropbacks and 18.9 rushing yards on 3.8 carries.
  • 196 passing yards on 33 dropbacks against the Bills in Week 11.
  • 177 passing yards on 25 dropbacks and 14 rushing yards on a season-high seven carries in the only playoff game.

Josh Allen 175+ Passing & Rushing Yards

  • At least 184 passing and rushing yards in 15 out of 18 (83.3%) full games, averaging 229.4 passing yards on 29.5 dropbacks and 33.2 rushing yards on 6.7 carries.
  • 262 passing yards on a season-high 40 dropbacks and 55 rushing yards on a season-high 12 carries against the Chiefs in Week 11.

Travis Kelce 4+ Receptions

  • At least 4 receptions in 14 out of 17 games (82.4%), averaging 6.1 grabs on 8.4 targets for 56.8 yards.
  • At least 4 receptions in 10 out of 12 (90.92%) games with DeAndre Hopkins, averaging 6.9 grabs on 9.6 targets for 64.1 yards.
  • At least 4 receptions in 13 out of 14 (92.9%) games with Rashee Rice out or playing less than five snaps, averaging 6.9 grabs on 9.2 targets for 64 yards.
  • At least 5 receptions in all three games with Marquise Brown, averaging 6.7 receptions on 8.7 targets for 77 yards.
  • Seven catches on 8 targets for a season-high 117 yards in the only playoff game. 

Khalil Shakir 3+ Receptions & 25+ Receiving Yards

  • At least 3 receptions and 25 receiving yards in 15 out of 17 games (88.2%), averaging 5.2 grabs on 6.7 targets for 55.8 yards.
  • Eight catches on a season-high 12 targets for 70 yards against the Chiefs in Week 12.
  • At least 6 receptions and 61 receiving yards in both playoff games, averaging 6.0 receptions on 6.5 targets for 64 yards.

James Cook 25+ Rushing Yards

  • At least 28 rushing yards in 16 out of 18 games (88.9%), averaging 66.4 rushing yards on 13.7 carries.
  • At least 67 rushing yards in both playoff games, averaging 93.5 rushing yards on 20 carries.

Bills +17.5

  • The Bills are second overall in DVOA (+20.7%) and EPA per play (+0.175) on offense, averaging the sixth-most yards per play (5.96).
  • The Chiefs are eighth overall (+10.8%) in DVOA and 11th in EPA per play (+0.0.58) on offense, averaging the 23rd-most yards per play (5.11).
  • Buffalo is 15-4 including the playoffs and excluding Week 18, losing by more than a field goal just once, defeating Kansas City 30-21 in Week 11 of the regular season.

Same-Game Parlay

-131, FanDuel

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