Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL is back, which means the best bet in sports is back as well: first touchdown scorer. There’s been a touchdown in all but a few NFL games over the past few seasons, which means almost every game over has had a first touchdown. It’s a great sweat and an exciting cash when we’re lucky enough to win. I’ll be sharing my first touchdown bets for every prime-time game in these articles, so get ready for some exciting late-night action.
If you haven’t followed my work in this market before, let me give you a quick primer. I focus on players with higher odds, so no lead running backs and almost never a team’s top wide receiver. This means that we may have long stretches without a win, but when we do get one, it will be well worth the wait. My record last year was 24-330-3, which is a win rate of 6.7%. Despite that being such a low number, I profited just over 99 units because the 24 wins had an average odds of about 1800. This leads me to my two biggest pieces of advice: First, keep your unit size on these small. For reference, I bet about 25% of my normal unit on these. Second, stick to that unit size no matter what happens. Don’t chase losses by betting more as we experience downturns and don’t get too cocky during a hot streak and increase your bet size. It’s a long season and if we’re patient, we’ll still have a lot of fun and win some money.
Thursday’s game features the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. First touchdown scorer can be tough early in the seasons because most teams change key players, coaches and/or schemes. Luckily, that is not the case for these organizations. There are few, if any, teams in the NFL that have been more stable than Baltimore and Kansas City, so we can rely on past performances to help us know what to expect. With that in mind, here’s who I’m betting on to score the very first touchdown of the 2024 NFL season.
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