Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL is back, which means the best bet in sports is back as well: first touchdown scorer. There’s been a touchdown in all but a few NFL games over the past few seasons, which means almost every game over has had a first touchdown. It’s a great sweat and an exciting cash when we’re lucky enough to win. I’ll be sharing my first touchdown bets for every prime-time game in these articles, so get ready for some exciting late-night action.
If you haven’t followed my work in this market before, let me give you a quick primer. I focus on players with higher odds, so no lead running backs and almost never a team’s top wide receiver. This means that we may have long stretches without a win, but when we do get one, it will be well worth the wait. My record last year was 24-330-3, which is a win rate of 6.7%. Despite that being such a low number, I profited just over 99 units because the 24 wins had an average odds of about 1800. This leads me to my two biggest pieces of advice: First, keep your unit size on these small. For reference, I bet about 25% of my normal unit on these. Second, stick to that unit size no matter what happens. Don’t chase losses by betting more as we experience downturns and don’t get too cocky during a hot streak and increase your bet size. It’s a long season and if we’re patient, we’ll still have a lot of fun and win some money.
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