Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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That means you need to nail your picks. Stacking becomes critical when trying to finish first in a large-field pool. It unlocks the highest ceiling and limits the number of factors you need to get right. Quarterbacks and pass catchers are positively correlated but are often difficult to pair in the early rounds. In this article, I am going to highlight how to execute the premium double stacks with a quarterback and two pass catchers inside the first 50 picks. You can track ADPs and rankings using the Underdog tool on FTN Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code “FTN” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Buffalo Bills Stack
Josh Allen (ADP: 31.2, QB1), Stefon Diggs (8.8, WR4), Gabe Davis (39.9, WR19)
The Bills are the most cost-prohibitive stack to land, and for good reason. In 2021 the Bills were the third-highest scoring offense and ranked inside the top five in total offense and pass attempts. Stefon Diggs is the first player off the board, with an ADP at the back end of the first round (8.8). Since being traded to the Bills in 2020, Diggs leads the league in targets and has PFF’s highest receiving grade from 2020 to 2021 (90.9). He’s finished as a top-eight receiver in back-to-back seasons and is currently being drafted as the WR4.
The next part of the stack is the QB1 overall, Josh Allen. Allen became the first quarterback to finish as the QB1 in two consecutive seasons since 2004 and is being drafted as such in 2022. Although it’s rare for a quarterback to finish at the top of their position consistently, Allen is in a tier of his own as the only quarterback selected in the first three rounds. He has a unique combination of high passing volume and “Konami Code,” rushing ability that separates him from the pack. Over the past two seasons, Allen leads all quarterbacks in total touchdowns and rushing touchdowns and is second in rushing yards.
Gabe Davis is the third piece of the Bills stack, checking as the WR19. Although Davis has yet to finish better than the WR50, drafters are buying into the breakout, selecting him as a top-20 receiver. Since entering the league in 2020, Davis has never caught more than 35 passes or eclipsed 600 yards in a season. His fourth-round ADP is inflated by the stack and his record-breaking four-touchdown game in the playoffs. However, with the departure of Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders this offseason, Davis will finally play a full-time role on a Bills offense with 199 targets up for grabs and a 31.9% vacated target share. Over the past two seasons, the Bills have ranked first and second in total targets to wide receivers.
Draft strategy: Stefon Diggs in Round 1, Josh Allen in Round 3, Gabe Davis in Round 4
Los Angeles Chargers Stack
Justin Herbert (43.8, QB2), Keenan Allen (31.4, WR13), Mike Williams (31.5, WR14)
The Charger stack is difficult to land, with the top two wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, going back-to-back in ADP. None of the receivers is drafted as a WR1, but both are ranked inside the top 15. The best way to pair the two together is to reach for Allen in Round 2 and hope Williams gets back in the third. Because their ADPs are so close together, drafters often have to pick between the two and are not drafting them together. In 2021 Williams finished as a top-10 receiver and ahead of Allen for the first time in his career. However, Williams only had eight more receiving yards than Allen (1,146 vs. 1,138) and 30 fewer receptions (76 vs. 106). The biggest differentiator was William’s nine touchdown grabs compared to Allen’s six. The Chargers’ have two legit No. 1 options, which is why Justin Herbert is the second quarterback off the board, in line with his 2021 finish. He was one of just two quarterbacks with 5,000 passing yards (5,316) and finished third in passing touchdowns (38).
Draft strategy: Keenan Allen in Round 2, Mike Williams in Round 3, Justin Herbert in Round 4
Kansas City Chiefs Stack
Patrick Mahomes (49.1, QB4), Travis Kelce (12.9, TE1), JuJu Smith-Schuster (45.8, WR23)
2022 is the cheapest it’s been to obtain the Chiefs stack since Patrick Mahomes‘ sophomore season in 2018. For the first time in three years, the Chiefs do not have a quarterback ranked inside the top three and no wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds. Travis Kelce is the first Chiefs player selected at the 1/2 turn, the TE1 overall. Kelce has finished as a top-two tight end in each of the past five seasons and has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in the last six. Even entering his age-33 season, he is one of the few differentiators at the position and is locked in as the Chiefs’ No. 1 passing option. The departure of Tyreek Hill has left a large void to fill on a Chiefs team lacking wide receiver depth. During the offseason, they signed JuJu Smith-Schuster to a one-year “prove it” deal, hoping to piece together the receiving room. He may not be the same player as Hill but possess a lot of upside, catching passes from arguably the league’s best quarterback. Although it’s been three years since Smith-Schuster has eclipsed 850 receiving yards, drafters are willing to take him as a WR2 in the fourth round. Mahomes is the last player to complete the stack coming in as the QB4. He’s ranked one spot higher than his 2021 finish (QB5) but will play his first full season without Hill. However, no player in history has averaged more points per game in their career than Mahomes (23). Last season Mahomes was top five in pass attempts (658), yards (4,839) and touchdowns (37).
Draft strategy: Travis Kelce in Round 1 or 2, JuJu Smith-Schuster in Round 4, Patrick Mahomes in Round 5
