Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL Draft is like the ocean. For some prospects, it's smooth sailing to port, but for others, the rising and falling of the tides can be delightful or frightening. With the assistance of Benjamin Robinson's Grinding the Mocks expected draft position data, we'll look at prospects enjoying sunny Carnival cruises and others who feel like they're aboard the Titanic.
NFL Draft risers
Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
Javonte Williams has seen his EDP shoot up since February, when he was being projected as a third-round pick. Williams is now starting to garner some late first-round buzz, and for a good reason. In 2020 he finished seventh in yards after contact per attempt (4.59) among rushers with 75 or more attempts. The former Tar Heel also led all running backs last season in missed tackles forced (76) on the ground while flashing a three-down skill set through the air. He quietly ranked 16th in yards per route run (among 60 running backs with 20 or more targets). Williams could easily hear his name called on Day 1.
Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
Quarterback thirst is a real scenario every year for the draft. This year’s example of thirsty Thursday is Davis Mills. Mills’ EDP languished outside the top 100 as recently as April, but as of writing this article, he is sitting at 64. The pedigree is there as a five-star prospect entering Stanford, but that’s about where the hype stops. After two years and 13 games started, his yards per attempt sits at 7.9 with a nap-inducing 18:8 passing touchdown to interception ratio. Mills does offer glimpses of an accurate pocket passer. In 2020, he ranked 13th in adjusted completion percentage last season among all quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks. But as that limited mobility thrower, he also struggled some versus pressure, ranking 37th (out of 80 quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks) in pressured passer rating (104.2). If Mills is selected in this second round or early third, an NFL team could regret that selection immensely in 2-3 years.
Elijah Moore, WR, Mississippi
Elijah Moore’s draft stock has been strapped to a rocket since he blazed a 4.40 adjusted 40 time at his pro day. Add that on top of his production profile, and you have a player that should have been receiving first-round talk from the start of the process. Moore screams future star with his 83rd percentile breakout age (19.4), 91st percentile college dominator (45.5%), and 96th percentile college target share (35.2%). Moore operated 77.9-94.8% out of the slot over the last two years, but don’t let that fool you into believing he is only an underneath option. Last season he ranked 9th in deep receptions (11) and 7th in deep receiving yards (490) among all college wideouts. The meteoric rise of Moore into the first-round conversation is justified.
NFL Draft fallers
Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
Gregory Rousseau was comfortably inside the top 16 picks earlier this year but has since seen his draft position fall off a cliff. Rousseau is barely scraping his way into the first round these days. Rousseau’s eye-popping 15.5 sacks (ranked 4th) in 2019 were enough to grab the headlines, but his fall from grace is warranted on a few levels. Rousseau's size is impressive, but his athleticism is more questionable with his 69th percentile 40 time (4.73), 18th percentile agility score, and 21 reps on the bench. While the sack numbers are sexy, his deeper pass-rush metrics are cause for more concern. In 2019 among 160 edge defenders with 250 or more pass-rush snaps, Rousseau ranked 73rd in quarterback hits (6) and 60th in quarterback hurries (24). The closer we get to the draft, it won’t be shocking to see him fall to Day 2.
Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
Rondale Moore has seen his EDP crumble, as he now finds himself in the middle of the second round after sitting as a mid-first-round pick in June of 2020. The questions surrounding Moore have substance to them. After exploding onto the scene as an 18-year-old with 1,258 yards receiving in 2018, he’s been limited to seven games total since due to injuries. His route tree has also been questioned after operating in the screen game and the intermediate areas of the field for the last three seasons. Since 2018 7.5 of his 10.7 yards per reception have come after the catch. Over that same span, 77.9% of his targets were within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. The athleticism is off the charts, but the question marks and projection needed with his NFL role make sense for him to nestle into the second round.
Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
Kyle Trask was the second-tier quarterback flavor du jour a few months ago. Trask was sitting in the second-round bucket with some talk about him sneaking into Day 1. That has been extinguished as the NFL Draft community has now turned their attention to other prospects. Trask saw his counting stats explode in 2020, leaning on the big play ability of Kadarius Toney and the generational talent of Kyle Pitts. These gaudy box scores don’t automatically make Trask a top-50 prospect in this class though. He has some warts after ranking 20th in turnover-worthy play rate (2.8%) last year. Trask was also more comfortable taking the check down option on many plays, ranking 33 in aDOT (10.1) and 65th in deep throw percentage (15.8%). Trask’s draft-day possibility as a third-round pick is appropriate.
