Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 9 Usage Report. This piece is designed to give you a glimpse of both rushing shares and usage rates for running backs, wide receivers, and occasionally tight ends. It will help you understand how often a player is involved in his team’s game plan and if those players are susceptible to being faded or emphasized during various game scripts.
Each section will be broken into three tiers. Tier 1 will cover teams with situations in flux, Tier 2 will highlight teams with situations to monitor, and Tier 3 will list teams with stable situations.
(To see more, check out our Weekly Rushing Share and Usage by Situation pages.)
Definitions:
tgt_big_lead — Target share when team is leading by 14+ points
tgt_leading — Target share when team is leading by 9-13 points
tgt_one_score — Target share when team is in a one score game
tgt_down — Target share when team is down by 9-13 points
tgt_down_big — Target share when team is down by 14+ points
Weekly Rushing Share
Tier 1 — Teams with Situations in Flux
Baltimore Ravens
Weekly Rushing Share
There has been no other backfield quite like this one this season. The Ravens continue to trot out anyone and everyone as ball-carriers, but the one constant remains Lamar Jackson. It’s worth noting that Latavius Murray should be back from his ankle injury soon. Until then, a combination of Le’Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman and Jackson will command most of the weekly touches. Ty’Son Williams could also factor in as needed moving forward.
Houston Texans
Weekly Rushing Share
Veteran running back Mark Ingram was traded to the New Orleans Saints prior to Week 8. He totaled 86 carries in seven games with the Texans. Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson figured to be the primary beneficiaries of Ingram’s departure, but it was Scottie Phillips and Rex Burkhead who saw the most opportunities this past week. This backfield remains a mess. The offense is struggling to move the ball and put up consistent points. Value and fantasy production are here but tough to find.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Weekly Rushing Share
As of this writing, it sounds like James Robinson avoided serious injury to his foot and is now considered day-to-day. Carlos Hyde would be the next man up and Dare Ogunbowale got some work last week. Robinson has received a large share of opportunity this season and his situation will need to be closely followed in the days and weeks ahead.
Kansas City Chiefs
Weekly Rushing Share
Almost literally out of nowhere, Derrick Gore received a 40% rushing share opportunity in Week 8 and looked excellent. It remains to be seen how involved he will be moving forward. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has missed three games with a knee injury and has now missed the minimum necessary games for an IR stay. The Chiefs offense has struggled with consistency in recent weeks and both Edwards-Helaire and Gore, (not to mention Darrel Williams) have looked impressive at different times.
New York Giants
Weekly Rushing Share
Saquon Barkley reportedly tested positive for COVID-19 Wednesday, then he tested negative, and then was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 List. He is already working back from a knee injury that he sustained in Week 5. In his stead, Devontae Booker has logged at least 12 carries in four consecutive games and has three scores in that stretch. There is a path for Barkley to see the field this weekend, but it will involve his knee feeling better and another negative test.
Philadelphia Eagles
Weekly Rushing Share
Incumbent Miles Sanders missed his first game this past weekend due to an ankle injury that landed him on injured reserve. The Eagles responded to his loss by deploying a three-headed committee consisting of Boston Scott, Jordan Howard and Kenneth Gainwell, with Gainwell only getting most of his touches when the game was officially a blowout. It looks like Scott and Howard will operate as a 1-2 punch for the next few weeks.
Tennessee Titans
Weekly Rushing Share
The loss of Derrick Henry for the next 6-10 weeks sent shockwaves around the league. The Titans signed Adrian Peterson, who was a popular waiver wire target this week. Along with Peterson, Jeremy McNichols can provide value out of the backfield, but he’s most often designated as a pass catcher. This offense will look very different without their star player.
Tier 2 — Teams with Situations Worth Monitoring
Arizona Cardinals
Weekly Rushing Share
The Cardinals have operated one of the most productive split backfields this season. Both James Conner (touchdowns) and Chase Edmonds (receptions) have thrived in their respective roles. It’s worth noting that Edmonds has out-attempted Conner over the last two weeks. This offense is high-powered and can score a lot of points so both backs should continue to have value.
Atlanta Falcons
Weekly Rushing Share
The biggest impact on this offense will come in the next section, but the trickle down from the Calvin Ridley situation will affect the running backs. Cordarrelle Patterson, a converted wide receiver who has dual eligibility on many fantasy platforms, has been one of the biggest surprises of the season. He could see an increased role in the passing game which could afford Mike Davis more opportunities as a traditional running back.
Carolina Panthers
Weekly Rushing Share
Week 8 signified a unique shift in the Panthers offense. Ameer Abdullah vaulted Royce Freeman in the pecking order behind Chuba Hubbard with 13 opportunities. Christian McCaffrey is aiming for a Week 9 return, but his health and availability need to be closely monitored. In the meantime, Hubbard remains the most valuable piece of this backfield.
Cleveland Browns
Weekly Rushing Share
One week after a career-best performance, D’Ernest Johnson gave way for Nick Chubb to return from his two-game absence. Johnson did find the end zone and should continue to carve out a small role until Kareem Hunt (potentially) returns in a few weeks.
Detroit Lions
Weekly Rushing Share
Jamaal Williams missed his first game of the year, which paved the way for D’Andre Swift to see an uptick in rushing opportunities. Both Godwin Igwebuike and Jermar Jefferson earned some work, but Williams is the clear 1B to Swift’s 1A when healthy.
Green Bay Packers
Weekly Rushing Share
The bombshell news story involving Aaron Rodgers that broke Wednesday regarding his positive COVID-19 test and vaccination status has clear impacts on this offense. Even before this week, AJ Dillon had successfully worked himself into a larger role. It’s possible both he and Aaron Jones receive a massive workload against the Chiefs this weekend.
Indianapolis Colts
Weekly Rushing Share
Jonathan Taylor saw his largest opportunity share of the season in Week 8 and continues to be one of the best running backs in fantasy. Nyheim Hines has slowly ceded more rushing attempts and Marlon Mack remained with the team past the trade deadline. There are still several talented backs on this team so we will see if Taylor’s 80% share will continue moving forward.
Las Vegas Raiders
Weekly Rushing Share
Josh Jacobs continues to lead the way, when healthy, and Kenyan Drake saw four consecutive games of increased opportunity in the weeks leading up to the bye week. The first game after a bye can be a good measuring stick for teams, so keep an eye on this backfield this week.
Los Angeles Rams
Weekly Rushing Share
While Darrell Henderson continues to carry the load, Sony Michel isn’t going away anytime soon. Michel is caught between a deep-league flex option and one of the best pure handcuffs. He’s talented enough to manage a large workload and is involved just enough to be useful each week. Buddy Howell received his first touches of the season last week which means there’s another interesting name to keep an eye on.
Miami Dolphins
Weekly Rushing Share
Now that Malcolm Brown is on injured reserve, we should have more clarity as to how this backfield will work moving forward. Myles Gaskin has not received consistent opportunities this season but has two straight games of at least 12 carries. Salvon Ahmed has been inefficient with his touches but has seen nine opportunities/game over the last three weeks.
New England Patriots
Weekly Rushing Share
The Patriots continue to offer one of the most difficult backfields to decipher. Their one constant has been Damien Harris, who has four games with at least 80 yards rushing and now has six rushing scores. Beyond him, it’s been a weekly guessing game with a bag of mixed results. Aside from Harris, no one else warrants a consistent spot in your lineup.
New Orleans Saints
Weekly Rushing Share
One of the only significant transactions leading up to the trade deadline was the reunion of Mark Ingram and the Saints. Ingram had an incredible run of success with this team from 2014 to 2017, when he was a top-15 RB for four straight seasons. Ingram had eight touches in his first game back with the Saints and figures to be a complementary piece to Alvin Kamara.
Seattle Seahawks
Weekly Rushing Share
It’s not looking like Chris Carson will be back anytime soon. Alex Collins has performed admirably in his stead by racking up double-digit carries in five consecutive contests. Former first-round pick Rashaad Penny continues to see more involvement and now Travis Homer and even DeeJay Dallas are seeing weekly touches. Keep an eye on Penny in the weeks ahead.
Washington Football Team
Weekly Rushing Share
This backfield is worth monitoring as Antonio Gibson works his way back to full strength due to a shin issue. J.D. McKissic is a standalone flex option due to his pass-catching prowess, and he also sees involvement in the ground game. Rookie Jaret Patterson topped 10 carries for the first time in Week 8 and could factor into a larger role.
Tier 3 — Teams with Stable Situations
Buffalo Bills
Weekly Rushing Share
Zack Moss and Devin Singletary have clearly defined roles, and we’ve seen enough to know what to expect out of them each week.
Chicago Bears
Weekly Rushing Share
Until David Montgomery returns, this backfield belongs to Khalil Herbert.
Cincinnati Bengals
Weekly Rushing Share
Joe Mixon dominated the backfield touches last week. A healthy Samaje Perine was a non-factor.
Dallas Cowboys
Weekly Rushing Share
Similar to the Bills, we know how Dallas deploys their backfield. Even in a game without Dak Prescott, the usage trends for Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard were similar to their season averages.
Denver Broncos
Weekly Rushing Share
The Javonte Williams rookie breakout season might not happen. Melvin Gordon remains the 1A despite how well Williams has played.
Los Angeles Chargers
Weekly Rushing Share
A slight question surrounding Austin Ekeler’s health was the only reason for a change in opportunity this past week. When healthy, this backfield belongs to Ekeler.
Minnesota Vikings
Weekly Rushing Share
When Dalvin Cook is healthy, he gets all the work. When Cook is not healthy, Alexander Mattison gets all the work. I appreciate the consistency and predictability of this backfield.
New York Jets
Weekly Rushing Share
It’s been a growing trend, but Michael Carter has cemented himself as the clear-cut starter in recent weeks. There’s no reason to believe that will change.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Weekly Rushing Share
After Derrick Henry, there’s probably no other running back who means as much to his backfield as Najee Harris. The numbers speak for themselves.
San Francisco 49ers
Weekly Rushing Share
It wasn’t the result many of us expected, but Elijah Mitchell has taken control of this backfield and doesn’t look to be giving it back. Pour one out for everyone who spent significant draft capital on Trey Sermon.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Weekly Rushing Share
Leonard Fournette is the starter, and Ronald Jones is his backup.
Usage by Situation
Tier 1 — Teams with Situations in Flux
Atlanta Falcons
Usage by Situation
The Falcons will be without their No. 1 wide receiver for the foreseeable future. Calvin Ridley is stepping away from the team to take care of his mental health. Tajae Sharpe has totaled nine receptions on 11 targets for 111 yards in the two games Ridley has missed this season. Russell Gage should also see a slight bump in usage.
Cleveland Browns
Usage by Situation
According to reports, it sounds like Odell Beckham might be away from the team for the foreseeable future. Growing division within the organization has not helped this situation and, with the trade deadline behind us, there’s a chance he doesn’t play. Jarvis Landry has played well in his first two games back from injury and continues to manage his knee issue. He missed practice Wednesday, which is what happened last week before he suited up Sunday.
Green Bay Packers
Usage by Situation
The Packers managed to knock off the last undefeated team with Davante Adams last week but will now have to beat the Chiefs without Aaron Rodgers. Covid related issues aside, all pass-catchers are downgraded this week. Except a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon as the Chiefs can be run on.
Las Vegas Raiders
Usage by Situation
The Raiders released former first-round pick Henry Ruggs following his arrest this week. Darren Waller is working his way back to full strength after missing Week 7 with an ankle injury. Hunter Renfrow remains a sneaky addition in all formats and has at least five receptions in all but one game.
Miami Dolphins
Usage by Situation
DeVante Parker returned from a three-game absence to reel in eight of 11 targets. He’s been targeted at least seven times in every game he’s played this season. Jaylen Waddle continues to soak up targets as well, but Mike Gesicki saw a sharp decline in usage with Parker back on the field. The Dolphins have a late bye week and are set at quarterback so the next few weeks should be very telling about how well these receivers will mesh together.
New Orleans Saints
Usage by Situation
News broke Wednesday that Michael Thomas would not be returning this season. No other pass-catcher is relevant on this offense. Jameis Winston will also miss the remainder of the season so it looks like Taysom Hill (concussion) or Trevor Siemian will be under center moving forward.
New York Giants
Usage by Situation
Health (or lack thereof) remains the biggest issue for the Giants. It’s a situation to monitor simply because of the revolving door of availability each week. Daniel Jones has flashed promising talent but not having all available playmakers on the field at the same time is difficult.
New York Jets
Usage by Situation
Jamison Crowder continues to soak up targets as he’s always done. QB Mike White was an incredible story last week when he posted over 400 passing yards and three scores. He will likely come back to earth, but it was a fun Week 8 victory for the Jets. Elijah Moore remains a buy target in dynasty formats.
Tier 2 — Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Arizona Cardinals
Usage by Situation
Both Kyler Murray (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) missed practice Wednesday. Hopkins has been fairly touchdown-dependent for his fantasy production this season and Christian Kirk has stepped up as the clear No. 2 option on this offense. Keep an eye on injury reports heading into the weekend.
Baltimore Ravens
Usage by Situation
The involvement of rookie wideout Rashod Bateman will be the storyline to watch coming off the bye week. He posted six targets in each of his first two games and hit 80 receiving yards in Week 7. Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews will still be featured but Bateman is a speculative addition in all formats.
Chicago Bears
Usage by Situation
This offense will only go as far as Justin Fields and the coaching staff take them. Darnell Mooney continues to impress and leads the team in targets, receptions and yards. Allen Robinson remains one of the biggest disappointments for fantasy.
Denver Broncos
Usage by Situation
Jerry Jeudy is back after a six-game absence and will continue to be integrated into the offensive gameplan. Noah Fant is currently on the Reserve/COVID-19 List and, since he reportedly tested positive, he will need two negative tests at least 24 hours apart in order to play this weekend. This team does remain limited by quarterback play.
Detroit Lions
Usage by Situation
If there was ever a team that needed someone to step up at wide receiver, it’s the Lions. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kalif Raymond have been erratic with their production, but T.J. Hockenson has stepped up in recent weeks to lead all the receivers.
Indianapolis Colts
Usage by Situation
The emergence of Michael Pittman has been a sight to see in recent weeks. He’s topped 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games and has four scores in that span. T.Y. Hilton has only been active for two games this season and is dealing with a concussion, and Parris Campbell is likely to miss several months after having foot surgery. Look for Pittman to be even more involved.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Usage by Situation
Jamal Agnew is the wide receiver none of us expected to be relevant this season. The trio of D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault have disappointed at different stages of the season, but Agnew has double-digit fantasy points in three consecutive games and is seeing the snap share to suggest he can continue his production.
New England Patriots
Usage by Situation
He might be allergic to touchdowns, but Jakobi Meyers continues to pace this receiving room in targets, receptions, and yards. Hunter Henry had a touchdown in four straight games before cooling off in Week 8. Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne flash at different times, which makes this a tough offense to decipher, outside of Meyers.
Philadelphia Eagles
Usage by Situation
Week 8 was a great week for Eagles running backs, not wide receivers. Rookie standout DeVonta Smith continues to see volume but hasn’t done much with it lately. Dallas Goedert is coming into his own now that Zach Ertz is out of town. Look for Goedert to be a featured part of this offense for the remainder of the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Usage by Situation
The loss of JuJu Smith-Schuster for the season has opened the door for tight end Pat Freiermuth to step up his involvement. He has seven targets in back-to-back weeks and two touchdowns on the year. Diontae Johnson remains a high-volume PPR asset and Chase Claypool is an ideal dynasty trade target. Bet on the talent, not his lack of production and poor quarterback play.
San Francisco 49ers
Usage by Situation
If we couldn’t pick Allen Robinson as the biggest fantasy disappointment this season, we would have to go with Brandon Aiyuk. He’s been in the coach’s doghouse for much of the season and Deebo Samuel is one of the best wideouts in the league right now. Aiyuk remains a trendy dynasty trade target because of his draft capital, athletic profile and rookie production.
Tennessee Titans
Usage by Situation
The loss of Derrick Henry and the injury history of Julio Jones could force Ryan Tannehill and Co. to feature A.J. Brown even more. That sounds incredible. Brown has looked like his dominant self over the past few weeks and should continue to see a high volume of targets. Look for someone else to step up on this offense, like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
Tier 3 — Teams with Stable Situations
Buffalo Bills
Usage by Situation
Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders have all been fantasy-relevant this year. The Bills run 3- and 4-WR sets as often as anyone in the league.
Carolina Panthers
Usage by Situation
DJ Moore is the only one you can trust. Robby Anderson has been historically bad. If anyone is worried about Moore because of his quarterback situation, make a strong offer.
Cincinnati Bengals
Usage by Situation
Each of these wide receivers offer varying levels of fantasy production. Joe Burrow has this offense on a massive, upward trajectory.
Dallas Cowboys
Usage by Situation
CeeDee Lamb is an elite wide receiver, and Amari Cooper is still playing at a high level. Dalton Schultz has been the steal of the tight end class this season and is quickly rising dynasty rankings.
Houston Texans
Usage by Situation
Brandin Cooks. That is all.
Kansas City Chiefs
Usage by Situation
Few teams funnel targets like the Chiefs, but Mecole Hardman is trying to make his backers believe. This offense does need to find some rhythm.
Los Angeles Chargers
Usage by Situation
Mike Williams has cooled after his meteoric start and Keenan Allen remains as steady and reliable as ever.
Los Angeles Rams
Usage by Situation
WR1 Cooper Kupp is eying records this season. Robert Woods has come around after a slow start. Van Jefferson is a sneaky second-half-of-the-season winner, especially with no DeSean Jackson.
Minnesota Vikings
Usage by Situation
Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen continue to lead the way in Minnesota.
Seattle Seahawks
Usage by Situation
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have performed admirably without Russell Wilson, but this offense will be better when he returns. Until then, it’s still a tightly funneled passing offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Usage by Situation
The Buccaneers would certainly like to have Antonio Brown back, but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin continue to be one of the best tandems for the greatest quarterback of all time.
Washington Football Team
Usage by Situation
It’s the Terry McLaurin show. That’s it. A few other names have provided weekly intrigue, but McLaurin is the only option who offers consistent production.
