Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 8 Usage Report. This piece is designed to give you a glimpse of both rushing shares and usage rates for running backs, wide receivers, and occasionally tight ends. It will help you understand how often a player is involved in his team’s game plan and if those players are susceptible to being faded or emphasized during various game scripts.
(To see more, check out our Weekly Rushing Share and Usage by Situation pages.)
Definitions:
tgt_big_lead — Target share when team is leading by 14+ points
tgt_leading — Target share when team is leading by 9-13 points
tgt_one_score — Target share when team is in a one score game
tgt_down — Target share when team is down by 9-13 points
tgt_down_big — Target share when team is down by 14+ points
Arizona Cardinals
Weekly Rushing Share
The Cardinals were never challenged by the lowly Texans in Week 7. This positive gamescript, like most have been this year, allowed both James Conner (10 carries) and Chase Edmonds (15 carries) to see significant usage in the ground game. It was the fourth time this season both backs have reached double-digit carries in the same game. This balanced approach seems to be working. Conner has six rushing scores over his last five games and Edmonds has at least four targets and three receptions in all but one game.
Usage by Situation
This offense is loaded with talent at every position. Newcomer Zach Ertz made a splash in his debut by reeling in three catches for 66 yards and a score. DeAndre Hopkins continues to find the end zone (seven touchdowns on the year), but it is worth noting he has not topped 87 receiving yards in a single game. His fantasy production is being upheld by touchdowns. Christian Kirk has begun to establish himself as the WR2 as he sits second on the team in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns.
Atlanta Falcons
Weekly Rushing Share
A changing of the guard appears to have taken place in Atlanta. Cordarrelle Patterson has been the feel-good story of the season, and it now looks like he is going to get the usage to support his production. Mike Davis has been trending in the wrong direction since Week 3 and, coming out the bye week, the Falcons looked determined to feature Patterson more than they have in recent weeks. There is nothing to suggest that this trend won’t continue.
Usage by Situation
The volume continues to be there for Calvin Ridley, but the production has not. He is averaging over 10 targets/game but has scored just twice and has only one game over 65 receiving yards. The usage and talent would suggest that a big game, or stretch of games, is coming soon. Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts is officially on historic pace. He has 27 targets, 332 receiving yards and a score over his last three games and looks capable of so much more.
Baltimore Ravens
Weekly Rushing Share
The Ravens backfield continues to cycle through various options depending on health. Regardless of who is under center, Lamar Jackson is a primary option in the ground game. He has at least seven rushing attempts in each game and has four games with 12 or more attempts. Until a consistent option emerges at the running back position, it’s tough to trust any of them.
Usage by Situation
The big news is the emergence of rookie wide receiver Rashod Bateman. He’s seen six targets in consecutive games and went for 80 yards this past week. He remains behind Marquise Brown in the pecking order for targets at the wide receiver position, and tight end Mark Andrews will continue to get his. Bateman remains an intriguing addition in redraft leagues and is an excellent trade target in dynasty leagues before he strings together a few solid games.
Buffalo Bills
Weekly Rushing Share
The Bills were on bye this week but looking back, Zack Moss and teammate Devin Singletary have been about as equally split as possible. Moss (54 attempts, 10 receptions) has had more success through the air and scoring touchdowns compared to Singletary (60 attempts, 13 receptions) and Moss has commanded a much higher rushing share over the last two weeks.
Usage by Situation
With the bye week behind them, the Bills head into the remainder of their season. Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are all relevant options, regardless of scoring or format. The Bills continue to deploy three and four wide receiver sets at one of the highest rates in the league.
Carolina Panthers
Weekly Rushing Share
Chuba Hubbard is guaranteed one more week of having total control over the backfield. Christian McCaffrey is eligible to return in Week 9, but his status will need to be monitored. I would be slightly surprised if McCaffrey garners a massive workload whenever he returns to the field. Hubbard continues to provide weekly value and is startable in all formats for at least one more week.
Usage by Situation
DJ Moore is averaging north of 10 targets per game on the season and remains the only pass-catching option I am comfortable starting in this offense. Robby Anderson has been historically bad in recent weeks and only has 18 receptions on his 49 targets. He’s essentially droppable in redraft leagues but his continued volume is at least mildly interesting. Terrace Marshall is a trendy addition in dynasty leagues. The quarterback situation for the Panthers needs to be closely followed.
Chicago Bears
Weekly Rushing Share
The big story out of Chicago is rookie running back Khalil Herbert. He posted 100 rushing yards against the Tampa Bay defense (not an easy thing to do) and caught all five of his targets this week. Herbert has apparently overtaken Damien Williams on the depth chart and has at least 18 carries in three straight contests. David Montgomery is due back soon, but Herbert has shown enough to warrant meaningful touches even with Montgomery on the field.
Usage by Situation
Darnell Mooney, the speedy sophomore out of Tulane, continues to pace the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards. He has not hurt fantasy managers the same way that Allen Robinson has, based on draft capital. Robinson is WR59 in PPR formats and continues to be at the mercy of an inept offense. Better days are almost certainly ahead for Justin Fields & Co. but it’s hard to trust either wideout right now. On a somewhat more positive note, Cole Kmet has increased his targets, receptions and yards in three of his last four weeks. He’s worth a stash in dynasty leagues, especially those with TE premium scoring.
Cincinnati Bengals
Weekly Rushing Share
Somewhat surprisingly, the Bengals blew out the Ravens this week, which afforded the opportunity for both Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine to receive double-digit carries. Mixon has done that in each game this season and has scored four times in his last four appearances. Perine has been a fine change-of-pace option, but he is much more dependent on the gamescript. This backfield belongs to Mixon.
Usage by Situation
Rookie sensation Ja’Marr Chase has officially arrived. His statement performance in Week 7 has all but cemented him as one of the greatest rookie wide receivers ever. Joe Burrow has thrown at least two touchdown passes in each game this season and the Bengals look legit. Tee Higgins continues to see encouraging volume and is a dynasty trade target because of both his lack of production and the Chase’s massive output. Tyler Boyd has fallen down the depth chart and is only worth a look in deeper, PPR formats.
Cleveland Browns
Weekly Rushing Share
The great story from this past week came Thursday night. Running back D’Ernest Johnson got his chance and made the most of it. Unfortunately for him, Nick Chubb is expected to be available this upcoming week. However, Kareem Hunt is still on injured reserve and Johnson showed enough to warrant additional opportunities alongside Chubb moving forward.
Usage by Situation
Wide receiver Jarvis Landry returned from a four-game absence in Week 7 to pace the team in targets and receptions. He is reportedly dealing with a new knee issue as of Wednesday of this week and his status will need to be monitored. As for Odell Beckham, it sounds like he is not planning to have surgery on his shoulder until after the season. His production has been disappointing up to this point and fantasy managers may want to try and avoid these pass-catchers if possible.
Dallas Cowboys
Weekly Rushing Share
It will be interesting to see how the Dallas offense looks coming off the bye week. Ezekiel Elliott remains the clear No. 1 option, but Tony Pollard has gotten more work than in any previous season. Pollard’s ceiling remains capped but he’s a borderline flex-option in most league formats.
Usage by Situation
CeeDee Lamb continues to make his case as the overall WR1 in dynasty leagues. He’s dominating the target share but Amari Cooper remains a viable option as well. Michael Gallup is due back soon which will shake up the target volume a bit. Surprise option Dalton Schultz continues to post impressive numbers and Elliot is getting just enough receiving usage to push him into that upper tier.
Denver Broncos
Weekly Rushing Share
It might be time to start looking to next season for Javonte Williams. As obvious as it is that he’s the future of this backfield, and as impressive as he’s been on the field, the Broncos remain committed to featuring veteran Melvin Gordon. Williams could still be a late-season league winner, but he needs to start seeing increased usage sometime soon.
Usage by Situation
This receiving room is as talented as any in the league, but they are held back by quarterback play. Jerry Jeudy is due back very soon, which provides another weapon for Teddy Bridgewater & Co., but the offense is lacking its true potential without a better option at quarterback.
Detroit Lions
Weekly Rushing Share
D’Andre Swift is quickly turning into one of the premier running backs in all of football. He’s already racked up 42 receptions in just seven games and remains the focal point of this disjointed offense. A lack of team wins doesn’t impact Swift, and his pass-catching prowess allows him to be immune to negative game scripts. The overall lack of offensive weapons makes him one of the most valuable assets in dynasty formats.
Usage by Situation
This receiving core isn’t impressive, and it’s not getting any better. Rookie wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown was held without a target in Week 7 after seeing a healthy dose of looks over his previous three games. Kalif Raymond is turning into a semi-legit deep threat and is an interesting waiver add this week. St. Brown is the preferred dynasty trade target if you wanted to peg at least one player.
Green Bay Packers
Weekly Rushing Share
The increased usage for AJ Dillon has been a positive development for this team that has not lost since Week 1. The Packers do have a tough road game on a short week against the Cardinals and it appears they may be at less than full strength. Except a heavy dose of Aaron Jones in both the ground and passing attack on Thursday night.
Usage by Situation
Both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard will be missing a crucial matchup this week due to COVID-19 protocols. That means Aaron Rodgers could lean on his old battery-mate Randall Cobb as well as 2020 breakout tight end Robert Tonyan. Lazard was just starting to make his claim as a viable No. 2 option in this passing attack after back-to-back impressive performances.
Houston Texans
Weekly Rushing Share
Mark Ingram was traded to the Saints Wednesday. This move means more for the Texans than it does for Ingram and his potential fantasy value. While David Johnson has seen more involvement in the passing game, Phillip Lindsay could see an uptick in rushing work. He posted consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with the Broncos when he first entered the league. Lindsay is a capable running back who should see a bump in fantasy production.
Usage by Situation
Brandin Cooks remains the only pass-catcher on this team with any fantasy relevance. Johnson has seen enough work out of the backfield to be interesting in deeper formats, but this team has struggled to do much of anything this season.
Indianapolis Colts
Weekly Rushing Share
Sophomore running back Jonathan Taylor has been lighting it up in recent weeks. Over his last four games, Taylor has rushed for 408 yards and scored six total touchdowns. He’s looking like a legit contender to be the overall RB1 in dynasty formats and he’s seeing just enough involvement in the passing game to justify his spot in the elite tier. Teammate Nyheim Hines has been relegated to backup duties and hasn’t had a meaningful fantasy finish since Week 3.
Usage by Situation
Michael Pittman is quickly rising the ranks in both season-long and dynasty leagues. Standing at 6-foot-4 and weighing 223 pounds, Pittman has the size and athletic profile to be a dominant wide receiver in the NFL. He’s posted over 500 receiving yards and two touchdowns through Week 7 and continues to make impressive plays down the field.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Weekly Rushing Share
James Robinson continues to do what he does best: make the most of the opportunities presented to him and dominate in all facets of the game. Over his last four games, he’s carried the ball 68 times for 388 yards and five touchdowns. Expect him to continue his impressive stretch coming out of the bye week.
Usage by Situation
The bright spot for this receiving room has been veteran Marvin Jones, who is dominating the target share in a variety of game scripts. Jones is a WR3 and is more than paying off his draft price. This will be a receiver room to closely watch as Trevor Lawrence continues to grow and develop.
Kansas City Chiefs
Weekly Rushing Share
One week after becoming the waiver wire hero, Darrel Williams and the Chiefs were thoroughly pummeled by the Titans. It hasn’t been a great season for this offense that has been known to rack up the points. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is set to miss at least one more week, which gives Williams at least one more shot at lead-back duties.
Usage by Situation
Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill sit No. 1 and No. 2 at their respective positions. There isn’t much to say about either of them. Despite the down performance in Week 7, both Kelce and Hill posted double-digit fantasy points. Aside from them, no one has consistently stepped up as a viable producer for fantasy. Mecole Hardman would be my pick as the next man up if you wanted a cheap piece of this offense coming off a down week.
Las Vegas Raiders
Weekly Rushing Share
The Raiders head into their bye week with Kenyan Drake and Josh Jacobs each having scored three touchdowns in each of their last three games. Jacobs suffered a chest contusion in Week 7 but should be fine with an extra week to recover. Week 7 was the first time Drake saw more than 10 carries and was the only time Jacobs had not hit that mark. Expect Jacobs to retain the lead role assuming he is healthy for Week 9.
Usage by Situation
Darren Waller missed Week 7 with an injury, which allowed Foster Moreau to reach season-high marks in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Hunter Renfrow continues to quietly pace this offense as he’s seen at least six targets in all but one game this season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Weekly Rushing Share
Any doubts about the involvement of Austin Ekeler in this offense have been put to rest. He is their primary ball carrier and earns the coveted red-zone and goal-line touches. His receiving usage boosts his floor and he’s immune to negative game scripts. It’s all systems go for Ekeler coming out of the bye week and there is no other meaningful option in this backfield right now.
Usage by Situation
Mike Williams has two abysmal performances sandwiched around one meteoric performances over his last three contests. It will be interesting to see how he is deployed this upcoming week as his breakout season has paid huge dividends for fantasy managers this season. Keenan Allen continues to quietly post meaningful numbers in PPR leagues and is about as steady and consistent as they come. He’s posted double-digit fantasy points in every game this season.
Los Angeles Rams
Weekly Rushing Share
Darrell Henderson continues to earn the bell cow role in this backfield. Sony Michel serves as a nice compliment but has little standalone value. Michel could immediately become an every-down player if Henderson were to go down so he’s an intriguing addition for managers as we head into the second half of the fantasy season.
Usage by Situation
All Cooper Kupp has done this season is post the highest fantasy output of any wide receiver through Week 7 … ever. He’s the WR1 by a wide margin and there’s really no reason not to expect him to continue producing at a high level. Robert Woods has bounced back a little since his sluggish start to the season and Van Jefferson remains a streaky option with touchdown upside.
Miami Dolphins
Weekly Rushing Share
This backfield continues to frustrate fantasy managers, and it starts and ends with Myles Gaskin. He more than tripled his previous three-game average of carries in Week by posting a season-high mark in rushing attempts (15) for 67 yards. Gaskin has not scored a rushing touchdown but has three scores through the air in the last three appearances.
Usage by Situation
Jaylen Waddle (low-end WR2) and Mike Gesicki (high-end TE1) are coming into their own over the last few weeks. They anchor the passing attack and are primary targets for Tua Tagovailoa. Both Waddle and Gesicki are dynasty trade targets as I believe they are just starting to scratch the surface of their respective potential.
Minnesota Vikings
Weekly Rushing Share
The Vikings come out of their bye week and face another well-rested team in the Cowboys Sunday night. Dalvin Cook is the primary running back and receives virtually all the work when he’s healthy. If Alexander Mattison ever needs to step up, he’s shown to be more than capable. Cook managers may want to prioritize adding Mattison in single-season leagues as we head into November.
Usage by Situation
Sophomore sensation Justin Jefferson is being overshadowed by his former college teammate in Ja’Marr Chase, but Jefferson is averaging just shy of 10 targets/game and is a high-end WR2 coming out of the bye. Adam Thielen has never heard of touchdown regression and continues to be a focal point for this offense. Irv Smith is one of my favorite trade targets right now in dynasty leagues. The talent is there and he’s working his way back to full health.
New England Patriots
Weekly Rushing Share
Damien Harris has 265 rushing yards and four touchdowns over his last three weeks and is entrenched as the RB1 for the Patriots. Aside from Harris and his impressive usage, no other option has emerged as a consistent producer for fantasy.
Usage by Situation
It’s getting almost ridiculous at this point. Someone please help Jakobi Meyers score his first career touchdown. He continues to pace the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards. Hunter Henry has scored in four straight games and has a phenomenal matchup this week against the Chargers.
New Orleans Saints
Weekly Rushing Share
Week 7 was an Alvin Kamara game. As this offense has evolved without Drew Brees, Kamara has taken on a more high-volume role compared to recent years. He already has four games with 20-plus carries this season, which is something he’d only done once before in his career — Week 16 of last year, when he posted 22 carries for 155 yards and six touchdowns. Needless to say, this is new territory for Kamara, but he continues to produce. The arrival of veteran Mark Ingram should not impact Kamara’s overall fantasy output, but it could cap his overall volume of rushing attempts.
Usage by Situation
Michael Thomas appears to be a couple weeks away from returning, which means this offense will continue to operate a low volume passing attack. Kamara will be heavily featured, and Marquez Callaway is the only other viable option at this time.
New York Giants
Weekly Rushing Share
Devontae Booker continues to prove that volume is all that matters for running backs. In the absence of Saquon Barkley, he’s averaged less than three yards/carry but has at least 16 touches in three consecutive games and has three touchdowns in that span. Barkley appears unlikely to play this week despite the game being Monday night.
Usage by Situation
These receiving options need to get healthy. Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney and Barkley all missed Week 7. Darius Slayton performed well as the last man standing but it’s hard to truly evaluate Daniel Jones when he is missing so many pieces from his arsenal.
New York Jets
Weekly Rushing Share
Rookie running back Michel Carter continues to separate himself from the pack in this backfield. He’s averaging more than 10 carries/game over the last five weeks and is a low-end RB3 at this stage of the season. The offense as a whole continues to struggle which could make Carter an intriguing dynasty trade target, especially with Zach Wilson set to miss time.
Usage by Situation
As mentioned, Wilson is projected to miss the next several weeks with a knee injury. As such, the Jets made a move to acquire Joe Flacco to guide the offense in his absence. Don’t expect the team to rush Wilson back as there is little incentive to do so. Flacco is a capable option, but it remains to be seen how this offense will look with him at the helm. It does sound like Mike White will be under center this week. Even so, Elijah Moore remains a priority addition in dynasty formats.
Philadelphia Eagles
Weekly Rushing Share
Miles Sanders is week-to-week with an ankle sprain. Boston Scott, who was relegated to the bench early this season, figures to claim the early-down work while Kenneth Gainwell will retain his role as the pass-catching specialist. Gainwell has had appeal already in PPR formats and Scott will be more touchdown-dependent given the propensity of quarterback Jalen Hurts to run the ball.
Usage by Situation
Rookie and Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith remains the focal point of the passing attack with Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins occasionally adding meaningful production. The departure of Zach Ertz opens up significant opportunities for Dallas Goedert who should quickly rise the ranks in dynasty formats. For Goedert, the talent has always been there, but consistent opportunity has not. This could change all of that.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Weekly Rushing Share
Najee Harris is a talented, three-down workhorse running back who does not offer many opportunities to anyone else. There isn’t much else that needs to be said.
Usage by Situation
While Diontae Johnson should continue to see double-digit targets each week, it remains to be seen just how this offense will look in the wake of losing JuJu Smith-Schuster for the season. In the one game without Smith-Schuster, tight end Pat Freiermuth posted seven receptions (on seven targets) for 58 yards. He’s another dynasty trade target at this stage of the season before he strings together several impressive performances. Chase Claypool is also undervalued and brings an impressive athletic profile to this offense.
San Francisco 49ers
Weekly Rushing Share
It looks like Elijah Mitchell is taking control of this backfield and not giving it back. It’s admittedly been a weird year for fantasy managers and the 49ers. Trey Sermon has been relegated to backup futures and even JaMycal Hasty is getting work before him. As frustrating as the running back room has been, it might be even more frustrating in the wide receiver room.
Usage by Situation
Deebo Samuel has been one of the biggest ADP values this season. He is seeing more than 10 targets per game and is dominating after the catch. The biggest source of frustration has stemmed from the lack of usage for Brandon Aiyuk. A year after dominating in the absence of Samuel and George Kittle, Aiyuk has wound up in the doghouse for an unknown reason. Only time will tell if Aiyuk was a one-year wonder or if he can work his way back onto the field. Also, Kittle should be back in Week 9.
Seattle Seahawks
Weekly Rushing Share
There is no timetable for running back Chris Carson to return from his neck injury. In his stead, Alex Collins has four consecutive games with double-digit carries and has performed admirable. Former first-round pick Rashaad Penny is looking to make yet another comeback and saw some work this past weekend. Collins remains the preferred option in Seattle.
Usage by Situation
Russell Wilson could return from his finger injury as soon as Week 10 which would be a huge benefit to this offense. In the two games without Wilson, both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have struggled. If you remove Metcalf’s long touchdown from this past weekend, both Metcalf and Lockett have had their worst two-game stretch of the season. They are the primary options in the passing game for Geno Smith and you are likely not sitting either wideout unless you have additional options.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Weekly Rushing Share
The only reason Ronald Jones (and Ke’Shawn Vaughn) saw upticks in usage this past week was due to a massive blowout victory. Leonard Fournette remains the primary option and has even seen some meaningful involvement in the passing game as he’s seen at least four targets in all but one contest. Giovani Bernard remains a desperation option in deeper PPR leagues.
Usage by Situation
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both top-13 wide receivers on the season. Antonio Brown could miss his second game in a row with an ankle injury and could potentially miss even more time than that. However, Rob Gronkowski is slated to return this week following a four-game absence and should provide a needed boost for Tom Brady should Brown miss extended time.
Tennessee Titans
Weekly Rushing Share
Derrick Henry already has 209 touches and 10 touchdowns this season. No one else from this backfield is worth a look.
Usage by Situation
Age looks like it might finally be catching up to Julio Jones. On the other end, A.J. Brown is beginning to look like his dominant self once again. Brown has 15 receptions for 224 yards and a score over his last two games and appears to be fully healthy. Expect him to receive a healthy target share in the weeks ahead as we get set to enjoy Brown dominating opposing defenses once again.
Washington Football Team
Weekly Rushing Share
J.D. McKissic outsnapped Antonio Gibson in Week 7, but Gibson has been dealing with a shin injury. He has still posted at least 10 rushing attempts in each game this season but has struggled to post meaningful fantasy numbers over his last two weeks. McKissic remains a flex option in deeper formats given his involvement in the passing game.
Usage by Situation
Aside from Terry McLaurin, no other pass catchers are offering consistent fantasy production. Tight end Ricky Seals-Jones has been a fine replacement for Logan Thomas and McKissic continues to earn his share of volume as well. Taylor Heinicke remains the starter for now as Ryan Fitzpatrick is reportedly still weeks away from returning.
