Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 11 Usage Report. This piece is designed to give you a glimpse of both rushing shares and usage rates for running backs, wide receivers, and occasionally tight ends. It will help you understand how often a player is involved in his team’s game plan and if those players are susceptible to being faded or emphasized during various game scripts.
(To see more, check out our Weekly Rushing Share and Usage by Situation pages.)
Definitions:
tgt_big_lead — Target share when team is leading by 14+ points
tgt_leading — Target share when team is leading by 9-13 points
tgt_one_score — Target share when team is in a one score game
tgt_down — Target share when team is down by 9-13 points
tgt_down_big — Target share when team is down by 14+ points
Weekly Rushing Share
Tier 1 — Teams with Situations in Flux
Carolina Panthers
The return of Cam Newton throws this entire offense into flux, both on the ground and through the air. Newton had 12 rushing touchdowns last season with the Patriots and immediately became the most threatening option around the goal line for the Panthers this past week Christian McCaffrey will still get his, especially through the air, but expect Newton to get the call around the end zone.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones suffered an MCL sprain and is expected to miss 1-2 weeks. In his stead, expect a healthy dose of AJ Dillon, the bruising sophomore out of Boston College. The Packers do have a Week 13 bye, so it is not unreasonable to expect Jones to miss the next two games and target a return in Week 14.
New England Patriots
Damien Harris missed his first game of the season in Week 10 due to a concussion. Rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson got the start and literally ran with it. Stevenson had 24 touches for 114 yards and a pair of scores in an efficient victory for the Patriots. Harris returned to the practice field Tuesday and cleared concussion protocol Wednesday. Harris does have seven rushing touchdowns and has been effective for much of this season.
Tier 2 — Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Arizona Cardinals
Chase Edmonds remains on injured reserve and James Conner continues to score touchdowns. He now has 12 on the season which is one shy of tying his career high. Eno Benjamin does have 15 carries and a score over his last two games and remains nothing more than a change-of-pace option. This team is missing its quarterback and does have its bye coming up in Week 12.
Atlanta Falcons
Cordarrelle Patterson is dealing with an ankle injury that he suffered in the first half of Week 10. He did not play in the second half, which opened up the opportunity for Wayne Gallman to see additional work. Patterson is a true game-time decision for Thursday and could miss this week unless we hear positive news soon.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens released Le’Veon Bell this week. Latavius Murray has not played since Week 6 but could return this week if he can practice in some capacity. Devonta Freeman remains the only running back you can roster and start with confidence. Ty’Son Williams has only 11 total carries since Week 3.
Cleveland Browns
Running backs Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton missed Week 10 due to being on the Reserve/COVID-19 List, and Kareem Hunt has missed four games with a calf injury. D’Ernest Johnson got his second chance in four weeks and delivered in a big way for fantasy managers. Chubb should be able to return this week unless there’s a setback, but Johnson has been a worthy stash this season.
Detroit Lions
D’Andre Swift continues to carry the load while Jamaal Williams works his way back from a thigh injury. Swift is the RB5 on the season and touched the ball 38 times in Week 10. It looks like Williams will practice this week which bodes well for this team who may not want to lean on Swift to the tune of 35-plus touches each week.
Jacksonville Jaguars
James Robinson missed one game and immediately returned to his lead role in Week 10. The Jaguars have demonstrated a willingness to utilize one running back, which means Carlos Hyde is now a change-of-pace option at best and a bench stash at worst.
Kansas City Chiefs
Darrel Williams is the RB16 on the year and has done an excellent job filling in for the injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH has not played since Week 5 but is on track to return this week. It remains to be seen how the Chiefs will distribute the backfield touches as Williams has certainly earned a share of the work given his production over the last several weeks.
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara missed his first game of the season with a knee injury in Week 10, which left veteran Mark Ingram to carry the load. Ingram topped 100 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches and he also found the end zone. Keep an eye on reports coming out of New Orleans this week as they pertain to Kamara’s health. Ingram is willing and able to shoulder a large workload when asked.
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley has not played since Week 5 but practiced Monday for the first time in over a month. He is on track to return in Week 11, having had the benefit of a Week 10 bye. The Giants don’t play until Monday night, which could complicate things for fantasy managers. Devontae Booker has played well over the last few weeks and has at least 16 touches in five straight games.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles designated Miles Sanders to return from injured reserve, which means the team has 21 days to activate him to the active roster. It remains to be seen if Sanders will play this week. The split backfield of Jordan Howard and Boston Scott has been effective over the last three weeks and rookie Kenneth Gainwell has rotated in on a few occasions as well.
San Francisco 49ers
Rookie running back Elijah Mitchell has dominated this backfield over the last four weeks. However, he suffered a broken finger and his status for Week 11 is in doubt. Trey Sermon has been a massive disappointment for fantasy thus far and it remains to be seen how this backfield will operate if Mitchell is limited or unavailable.
Seattle Seahawks
Chris Carson has not played since Week 4 and, as of this writing, is still on injured reserve with a neck injury. However, Carson did return to practice last week and there is a slight chance he could return this week. In his stead, Alex Collins remains a fringe starter based on volume and opportunity. Collins has six consecutive games with at least 10 carries.
Washington Football Team
The bye week must have been exactly what Antonio Gibson needed to get healthy. He set a season-high mark in rushing attempts (24) and scored his first touchdowns since Week 5. Gibson remains the clear option when healthy and it looks like his health has returned after dealing with a lingering shin injury.
Tier 3 — Teams with Stable Situations
Buffalo Bills
It was a bounce-back week for the Bills who steamrolled the Jets. Matt Breida got in on the fun as Zack Moss was limited in practice last week, but it looks like the backfield splits remain as consistent as ever heading into Week 11.
Chicago Bears
David Montgomery returned from a four-game absence to reclaim his role as the lead running back for the Bears. Khalil Herbert is nothing more than a change-of-pace option at this point. An extra week of rest (bye week) should only further cement Montgomery as the clear RB1.
Cincinnati Bengals
Like the Bears, the Bengals enjoyed their bye week last weekend. Joe Mixon remains the clear-cut starter and has hit the 50% rushing share mark in all but one game this season.
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliot posted his lowest rushing share (37%) of the season last week. However, he scored two touchdowns and Dallas won in dominant fashion. Elliot has at least three targets in six of his last seven games. Tony Pollard remains an elite handcuff option at the position.
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams is an efficient, elusive running back, but he is not getting the necessary volume to vault his fantasy stock into the upper tiers. The timeshare with Melvin Gordon continues as both players have hit at least a 40% rushing share in six of their last seven games.
Houston Texans
This is an atrocious backfield without a clear primary option. Phillip Lindsay hit a season-high mark in rushing share (44%) before the Week 10 bye, but it didn’t result in meaningful production. If you play a Texan running back, you are hoping he falls into the end zone.
Indianapolis Colts
Dynasty RB1 Jonathan Taylor continues his dominant stretch. Over his last seven games, he has 766 rushing yards, 233 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns. He’s also scored in each of those seven games.
Las Vegas Raiders
The gamescript did not favor Josh Jacobs in Week 10, but it was encouraging to see him catch all five of his targets. He does have 12 targets in his last three games and appears to have reclaimed lead duties over Kenyan Drake.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler continues to pace this backfield. Rookie option Larry Rountree did score his first career touchdown last weekend and has 10 total carries over the last three weeks.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ offense has struggled in recent weeks, but their rushing attack has remained consistent from a usage perspective. Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel have both topped a 30% rushing share over the last two weeks, but Henderson remains the primary option. Michel is a league-winning handcuff option much like Tony Pollard and Alexander Mattison.
Miami Dolphins
Despite early-season struggles with inconsistent usage, Myles Gaskin appears to be taking control of the Miami backfield. He has topped a 50% rushing share in five of his last six games and has at least a 63% in back-to-back weeks.
Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook has 96 touches (88 carries/8 receptions) over his last four games and remains a top option at the position.
New York Jets
Michael Carter has hit at least a 52% rushing share in seven straight games. In that span, there have only been two instances where someone else topped 20%.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite not having his starting quarterback last week, Najee Harris continued to dominate the touches and opportunities in the Pittsburgh backfield.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It wasn’t the performance the Buccaneers wanted to have coming out of their bye week, but Leonard Fournette continues to pace the backfield. His 84% rushing share in Week 10 was a season high.
Tennessee Titans
The new normal for the Titans isn’t looking good. In the two weeks following the loss of Derrick Henry, it’s been a mix of D’Onta Foreman and Adrian Peterson with a splash of Jeremy McNichols. This team is finding ways to win but there is little value to be had in the backfield for the time being.
Usage by Situation
Tier 1 — Teams with Situations in Flux
Carolina Panthers
The return of Cam Newton to the Panthers could signify big things to come for the wide receivers and other offensive playmakers. DJ Moore remains an elite talent who should command a large volume of targets. This change may be exactly what Robby Anderson needs to get back on track. Newton received a few snaps in Week 10 but is trending toward starting in Week 11.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams signed Odell Beckham at the perfect time. Robert Woods was lost for the season with a torn ACL and the Rams’ offense has looked out of sorts in recent weeks. Beckham only saw minimal work this past week but is almost certain to see more targets as he gets acclimated to his new environment. Cooper Kupp remains the WR1 for the season and is on a record-setting pace.
New York Jets
Joe Flacco is in line to start for the Jets in Week 11. Rookie first-rounder Zach Wilson is not ready to return, and Mike White threw four interceptions in Week 10. Flacco has played sporadically over the last few years and could be a solid game manager for the team. Still, I would proceed with caution when starting any Jets receivers this week.
Tier 2 — Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Arizona Cardinals
Neither Kyler Murray nor DeAndre Hopkins has played since Week 8. Hopkins missed practice Wednesday, but it sounds like Murray got in some work. This offense is not as dynamic without its top playmakers, and their situations will need to be closely monitored in the coming days.
Atlanta Falcons
The post-Calvin Ridley world has not been kind to the Falcons, who are desperately missing their alpha wide receiver. Kyle Pitts continues to operate as a pseudo-wide receiver given his athletic profile and skill set but no other wideout has consistently stepped up and provided meaningful production.
Cleveland Browns
Similar to the Falcons, the Browns are looking to move forward without their own elite wide receiver. The team continues to lean on the ground game which has proved effective and successful this season. However, Baker Mayfield is banged up and Case Keenum needed to finish the game this past week. It remains to be seen if Mayfield will be ready to suit up and how effective he will be if he does play.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys welcomed back Michael Gallup in Week 10 after a seven-game absence. CeeDee Lamb continues to be the most valuable option in the passing game while Amari Cooper is now more of a WR2. Dalton Schultz has had two tough outings in his last three weeks, but the Dallas offense looked to be back on track last week.
Kansas City Chiefs
Speaking of offenses getting back on track, the Chiefs did that in a big way in primetime. Patrick Mahomes topped 400 yards and threw five touchdown passes in a dominant victory. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are elite options at their respective positions while a viable WR2 has yet to step up with any sort of consistency. The Cowboys visit Arrowhead in a highly anticipated Week 11 matchup.
Miami Dolphins
Drama continues to surround Tua Tagovailoa. He came off the bench to replace Jacoby Brissett Thursday after Brissett injured his knee, again raising the question about whether Tua should have started if he was healthy enough to be the backup. Regardless, Jaylen Waddle continues to play at a high level and Mike Gesicki is a start-worthy option at tight end.
New England Patriots
Mac Jones turned in his most impressive performance in Week 10. He was dialed in and completed 19-of-23 for 198 yards and three scores. His fantasy output has been minimal, but he continues to show poise and control of the game. Hunter Henry has scored seven times in his last seven games and is one score shy of tying his career high. The volume might not be there, but the efficiency is. Also, Jakobi Meyers finally scored his first career touchdown.
New York Giants
The Giants might finally have their full allotment of pass-catchers coming off their bye week. Along with the potential return of Saquon Barkley, we could finally get a decent look at how this offense can function under Daniel Jones when he has (almost) all his weapons (mostly) healthy.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger missed Week 10 on the Reserve/COVID-19 List but could return in Week 11 if he has two negative tests 24 hours apart. If he can’t go, Mason Rudolph will get his second start. The offense struggled their way to a tie last week and every player except for Najee Harris should be downgraded if Roethlisberger is unable to return this week.
Tennessee Titans
Despite not having Derrick Henry or Julio Jones, the Titans continue to find ways to win. A.J. Brown cooled off after his torrid four-week stretch and Marcus Johnson stepped up to the tune of 100 receiving yards on just five receptions this past week. Look for Brown to be heavily featured in a promising matchup in Week 11.
Tier 3 — Teams with Stable Situations
Baltimore Ravens
The Rashod Bateman breakout game is coming. The talented rookie is quickly taking over this offense and has at least six targets in each game this season. He passes the eye test, as well. Bateman has made several impressive grabs over the last few weeks.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills got back on track in a big way in Week 10 and much of that can be attributed to Stefon Diggs having the game fantasy managers have been waiting for. It was his best game of the season by far and he is now back inside the top 12 at the position.
Chicago Bears
Justin Fields appears to be taking tangible steps forward in his development as an NFL quarterback which bodes well for his offensive playmakers. Until he becomes more consistent, Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney are difficult to trust in your lineup, although Cole Kmet is worth a closer look.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals enjoyed their bye this past week and they enter the second half of their season just a game back of the division lead. Joe Burrow & Co. leads an efficient offense that has weapons across the board. While Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the primary options, Tyler Boyd has been valuable and productive throughout his career.
Denver Broncos
The return of Jerry Jeudy has not been kind to Courtland Sutton. In four games with Jeudy, Sutton is averaging 4.3 points/game. In six games without Jeudy, Sutton is averaging 17.1 points/game. The Broncos are on bye in Week 11.
Detroit Lions
T.J. Hockenson had over 30 targets in his three previous games but had just one (with zero catches) in Week 10. The Lions passing game remains atrocious and Hockenson is the only viable option for fantasy lineups moving forward.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers got Aaron Rodgers back last week, which means Davante Adams is in contention for the WR1 slot on any given week. No other pass catcher offers consistent production at this time.
Houston Texans
Tyrod Taylor got the start in Week 9 and will start this week coming out of the bye. Brandin Cooks remains the only fantasy-relevant option on this offense.
Indianapolis Colts
Sophomore Michael Pittman has at least 60 receiving yards in 70% of his games this season and he’s currently the WR8 on the year. His breakout looks to be real and his size, athleticism and role on the offense signify even bigger things to come.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold have stolen the spotlight in recent weeks. Arnold has at least seven targets and 60 receiving yards and three straight games and is the only pass catcher I feel comfortable starting for the Jaguars.
Las Vegas Raiders
Darren Waller was blanked in primetime this past week but remains one of the elite options at the position. I’d like to see more of Bryan Edwards who has flashed at times and has at least four targets in all but one game this season. Hunter Renfrow is in the running for biggest fantasy steal of the draft. He has 21 receptions over his last three performances and is WR27.
Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Williams continues to struggle. He has only topped eight fantasy points once since Week 4. Williams is reportedly dealing with knee swelling so that should be monitored as well. Keenan Allen continues to produce; he’s averaging well over 10 targets per game and is WR14 despite only two scores.
Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson has turned it on over the last two weeks after a few down weeks. He’s still a back-end WR1 and Adam Thielen has seven touchdowns through nine games.
New Orleans Saints
Despite the changing of quarterbacks, nothing has really changed for this offense and its playmakers. Marquez Callaway is an interesting flier, but the volume doesn’t hint at consistent production.
Philadelphia Eagles
Rookie wideout DeVonta Smith has been on a heater over the last two weeks; he’s racked up nine receptions (on 12 targets) for 182 yards and three touchdowns. He’s the clear favorite of quarterback Jalen Hurts. Dallas Goedert is also trying to get healthy, which should boost this offense as well.
San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel continues to cement himself as one of the best wideouts of the season and George Kittle looks to be returning to his dominant form. Brandon Aiyuk has seen an uptick in usage over the last few weeks, which bodes well moving forward.
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson’s return did not provide the needed spark for this passing game but the hope is that another week will allow them to return to dominant form. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett need to be in your lineups each week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Antonio Brown has not played since Week 6 due to an ankle injury. The Buccaneers do not play until Monday night, so there is some optimism that he could get some practice in this week, but it remains to be seen if that will happen or not. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain auto-starts.
Washington Football Team
Terry McLaurin remains the only viable pass-catcher on this team. He is reportedly dealing with a shoulder injury but doesn’t appear to be in danger of missing time.
