NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 9

Even at 5-3, no one (me included) thinks the Broncos are among the league’s elite teams. Which is why it’s handy to have a team like the Carolina Panthers around, because picking the Broncos in the Week 8 NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator article was refreshing.

Why was it refreshing? Because y’all, I am only 5-3 and despite that have run through a lot of the league’s better teams. Remember, you can only pick each team once. Ravens, gone. Bills, gone. Texans, Chiefs, Seahawks, gone, gone, gone. (Also Bengals, Browns and Broncos, who were two of my wins and a loss and are currently not among the league’s elite teams.) Call it a strategy failure on my part (and it is), but getting a Week 8 win with one of the league’s mediocre teams was a nice sigh of relief.

Basically: Thank you, Panthers.

So let’s look ahead to Week 9, and our NFL Survivor pick for the week. As always, we’ll go through our elimination process to start, knocking out some obvious no picks before we get to the possible yes ones.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 9

First off, we have two bye teams — one that is 6-2 and the other that is still, despite being 4-4, among the favorites to make the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers

Two down. Slow start.

Thursday

Thursdays remain weird, and unless we get, like, Chiefs vs. Panthers, I’m just never going to consider teams in the weirdest of spots.

Houston Texans (@ NY Jets)
New York Jets (vs. Houston)

Two more gone, 28 to go.

They’re Too Bad

Some parts of my process haven’t worked out, but I am flatly determined to have a handful of teams each week I just refuse to pick. Some will win. This isn’t a prediction that these teams will all lose. It’s just that they’re so bad that I couldn’t confidently pick them.

Carolina Panthers (vs. New Orleans)
Cleveland Browns (vs. LA Chargers)
Dallas Cowboys (@ Atlanta)
Indianapolis Colts (@ Minnesota)
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Philadelphia)
Las Vegas Raiders (@ Cincinnati)
Miami Dolphins (@ Buffalo)
New England Patriots (@ Tennessee)
New Orleans Saints (@ Carolina)
New York Giants (vs. Washington)
Tennessee Titans (vs. New England)

Not all of these teams (thinking Cowboys, Dolphins, maybe Saints, maybe Browns, maybe Colts) are consigned to this category forever, but for now they’re out. Think of it this way: If you don’t pick the Chiefs and they win, you don’t feel dumb. But if you pick this version of the Dolphins and they don’t win? You will curse yourself forever. I just have no interest in picking a “curse myself forever” team.

Even more gone. That means 17 left.

Tough Matchups

Maybe this category should be called “balanced matchups”? I’m not sure. The point is that I could see myself picking the Seahawks against, like, the Patriots (ignoring that they’ve already played), and I could pick the Rams if they go against the Rams. But the Seahawks against the Rams? A home 4-4 Seahawks team that has been wildly inconsistent vs. a road 3-5 Rams team that is getting healthier? Too evenly matched, not gonna try.

Arizona Cardinals (vs. Chicago)
Chicago Bears (@ Arizona)
Detroit Lions (@ Green Bay)
Green Bay Packers (vs. Detroit)
Los Angeles Rams (@ Seattle)
Seattle Seahawks (vs. LA Rams)

Six more! It’s slow, but we’re down to 11 teams.

Bit-by-Bit

I don’t feel comfortable eliminating teams in broad swaths from here, so I’m going to go through teams I’m eliminating for simple reasons before we get to the ones we have to really think about.

Atlanta Falcons (vs. Dallas)

ATLANTA, GA Ð OCTOBER 08: Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs the ball during the NFL game between the Houston Texans and the Atlanta Falcons on October 8th, 2023 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

The Dak Prescott–CeeDee Lamb combination went wild last week, and while putting all your faith in one great receiver torching a defense, it’s also true that Dallas is getting (a bit) healthier. DaRon Bland and Micah Parsons both could return this week.

Baltimore Ravens (vs. Denver)

The Ravens have lost to the Raiders and Browns, which is absolutely bonkers. But their pass defense is very suspect, and the Broncos have earned enough respect that — while I think the Ravens win this game, and probably comfortably — this isn’t a gimme.

Denver Broncos (@ Baltimore)

You see that “probably comfortably” phrase above? Yeah, that.

Los Angeles Chargers (@ Cleveland)

The legend of Jameis keeps me from betting on the weaponless Chargers on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ Kansas City)

Given the absence of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, this version of the Buccaneers borders on the “They’re Too Bad” section, and they’re facing an undefeated team. No way.

Five more gone! Six left!

The Contenders

After the elimination process, we’re down to six teams. That’s more than I’d like to have left at this point, but at least it gives us a wide swath of candidates.

Buffalo Bills (vs. Miami)
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Las Vegas)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Tampa Bay)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Indianapolis)
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Jacksonville)
Washington Commanders (@ NY Giants)

For my specific purposes, I’ve already used Buffalo, Cincinnati and Kansas City, so I can’t pick them, but you certainly can. (Unless you’ve been tailing me, but then if you’ve been tailing me you’re already eliminated. Sorry about that!)

Here’s how I’m eliminating a few more:

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 30: Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receiver A.J. Brown (11) and Wide Receiver Devonta Smith (6) enter the field before the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles on October 30, 2022 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire) — PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 30: Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receiver A.J. Brown (11) and Wide Receiver Devonta Smith (6) enter the field before the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles on October 30, 2022 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)

The Eagles, despite all the storylines and the sturm and drang, are 5-2, are a team I’d like to save for later.
The Commanders are the lone contender in my list who is on the road this week, which, while I’m comfortable saying they’ll win, is enough that I don’t want to go that way.
The Raiders are very bad and the Bengals are better than their record, but at some point you have to worry about casting your lot with a 3-5 team.

The Pick

Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Indianapolis)

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – NOVEMBER 24: Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) is introduced before a game between the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots on November 24, 2022, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

Joe Flacco is better than we thought Joe Flacco would be when he was bouncing between the Jets and Eagles a few years ago. He is a boon for his teams’ fantasy options. You know what Joe Flacco is not? Actually good at football. Not at age 39. The Colts aren’t more likely to beat this Vikings defense (even if it’s regressed from early in the season) with statue-still Flacco than it was with volatile Anthony Richardson Give me the Vikings to roll the Colts, and Richardson to be back under center in Week 10 (if not some time in Week 9 when the blitz-happy Vikings knock Flacco out of the game.

Honorable Mention

Buffalo Bills (vs. Miami) — if you didn’t use them when I did
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Jacksonville)

2024 Record: 5-3

Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs (W)
Week 5: Seahawks (L)
Week 6: Texans (W)
Week 7: Bengals (W)
Week 8: Broncos (W)
Week 9: Vikings