NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 7

We’re now back to 3-3 in this season’s NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator, a game where a single loss renders you irrelevant. Being 3-3 is a good record! Being 3-3 in that particular game is less good! But given how much of a mess this season has been, and the fact that it’s literally my job to keep doing this, here we go!

That’s a little sarcastic. I’m making my weekly NFL Survivor picks. There’s a lot of thought into it. As long as I trust my process, I have to live with the results. And I trust my process. If you do as well, here we go for Week 7.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 7

We two four easy eliminations — the teams on bye:

Chicago Bears
Dallas Cowboys

To be fair, the way they’re playing these days, at least the Cowboys never would have been under consideration even if they were playing. But at least there’s no sweat there.

Thursday/London

These games get weird, a lot weirder than Sunday or Monday nights. I’m out on these games unless I feel forced.

Denver Broncos (@ New Orleans)
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New England in London)
New England Patriots (vs. Jacksonville in London)
New Orleans Saints (vs. Denver)

They’re Too Bad

Some parts of my process haven’t worked out, but I am flatly determined to have a handful of teams each week I just refuse to pick. Some will win. This isn’t a prediction that these teams will all lose. It’s just that they’re so bad that I couldn’t confidently pick them.

Arizona Cardinals (vs. LA Chargers)
Carolina Panthers (@ Washington)
Cleveland Browns (vs. Cincinnati)
Las Vegas Raiders (@ LA Rams)
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Las Vegas)
Miami Dolphins (@ Indianapolis)
New York Giants (vs. Philadelphia)
Tennessee Titans (@ Buffalo)

Now I have to start thinking. Fourteen teams out, 18 to go. Hope some of the choices are easy!

Elite Matchups

New category! Week 7 offers us some matchups of very good teams where picking either side of the game feels like playing with fire, so I’m eliminating both sides in one fell swoop.

Houston Texans (@ Green Bay)
Green Bay Packers (vs. Houston)
Detroit Lions (@ Minnesota)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit)
Kansas City Chiefs (@ San Francisco)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Kansas City)
Baltimore Ravens (@ Tampa Bay)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Baltimore)

Now we’re down to 10 teams.

Bit-by-Bit

I don’t feel comfortable eliminating teams in broad swaths from here, so I’m going to go through teams I’m eliminating for simple reasons before we get to the ones we have to really think about.

Atlanta Falcons (vs. Seattle)

The Seahawks have been in a bit of a free fall, sitting at 3-3 after a 3-0 start. But the team is getting back to health now and is intimidating enough that this game was on the border of the “Elite Matchups” category.

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami)

The Colts’ weakness against the run against a Dolphins team that has something like 17 different Road Runners at running back is scary, even before we get to the enigma that is Anthony Richardson.

New York Jets (@ Pittsburgh)

A team going through major turmoil against a brand new quarterback on the other side. The Jets might win! They might collectively decide to walk off the field. I have no idea what to predict.

Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. NY Jets)

You see the blurb above this? The Steelers are switching quarterbacks right before a matchup against an elite pass D. Scary game!

Seattle Seahawks (@ Atlanta)

The Seahawks should be righting the ship, but Atlanta is getting things going at the same time.

The Contenders

After the elimination process, we’re down to five teams. That’s the same number of contenders we had at this point in the process last week. Crazy when things work out.

Buffalo Bills (vs. Tennessee)
Cincinnati Bengals (@ Cleveland)
Los Angeles Chargers (@ Arizona)
Philadelphia Eagles (@ NY Giants)
Washington Commanders (vs. Carolina)

If you were to rank the teams in the league 1-32, these five teams might float anywhere from top five to top 16 or so, but the five opponents would probably be five of the bottom … seven? Eight? Add in the Jaguars, Patriots and maybe the Rams, and that’s the bottom of the list. Turns out playing against a really bad team makes it easier to win a game!

Our notes about these teams:

The Chargers are better than expected, while the Cardinals are worse. Even with that, and noting that at some point I’ll need to start picking some lesser teams because I will have eliminated the big names, I don’t think I can justify picking a team with Ladd McConkey as its No. 1 receiver. Not quite yet.
In the inverse of above, the Eagles are worse than expected, while the Giants (especially assuming Malik Nabers is back) are a bit better, at least than we thought a few weeks ago. This one’s out as well.
The Commanders hosting the Panthers feels like a gimme, but it also feels like a classic trap game where we’re too excited about the up-and-coming team and all get disappointed. But then again, the Bengals also feel that way. (Or maybe I’m just perpetually paranoid.)
Two of my final five candidates are road teams in division rivalry games. That doesn’t feel good!

The Pick

Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions.

Cincinnati Bengals (@ Cleveland)

Yep, road team in a division rivalry game. And I’m not convinced the Bengals are actually that good. The offense should stay solid all year as long as health holds out, but that defense is a mess. So there might not be as many opportunities to utilize Cincinnati in this contest as you might expect. But with the disaster in Cleveland, the Bengals should (should) have little resistance Sunday. (There’s an argument for you, dear reader, to take the Bills, but as I have already used them, I have to look elsewhere.)