Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The consolation for going 1-2 through three weeks of NFL Survivor/Eliminator advice is that … well, everyone is doing that. The good folks at Kentucky Sports Radio had a Survivor contest this season, and former Browns quarterback Tim Couch — who had never heard of Survivor before this year — locked up the season win when the Bengals lost Monday night. Week 3, and the contest is over.
So my advice is going poorly. So is everyone’s! If you’ve somehow skated through three weeks, or if your league already ended and everyone sat around like “Now what?” and decided to start over, let’s see if we can right the ship in Week 4.
NFL Survivor Picks for Week 4
We’re changing things up a bit this week, given we have some extra data now that we’re three weeks into the 2024 season … and, frankly, what we’ve done hasn’t been working. First, other than Buffalo and Kansas City (I will not be picking whatever team they play), the league at large appears to be so mid that starting out with “Opponent Is Too Good” is kind of a waste of exercise. But the next step — “They’re Too Bad” — that one stays. There are some teams I won’t take no matter what happens, and that means I’ll be missing out on some winners sometimes, but I’m sorry, I will never take a team quarterbacked by Tim Boyle.
They’re Too Bad
Carolina Panthers (vs. Cincinnati)
Chicago Bears (vs. LA Rams)
Cincinnati Bengals (@ Carolina)
Cleveland Browns (@ Las Vegas)
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Pittsburgh)
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Houston)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Cleveland)
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Kansas City)
Miami Dolphins (vs. Tennessee)
New England Patriots (@ San Francisco)
New York Giants (vs. Dallas)
Tennessee Titans (@ Miami)
Someone will win between 0-3 Tennessee and scored-33-points-this-season Miami. If I had to pick one, I’d take the Titans. But I will not be rolling with either team in a “you have to get one right” situation, sorry, you can’t make me.
That’s 12 teams we’re knocking off the list. If the Bengals turn things around, if Tua Tagovailoa comes back healthy, if Justin Herbert looks strong, if the Bears figure out how to block… these teams aren’t locked into this classification for the season, but for the time being, they aren’t realistic selections in this contest, basically no matter who they face.
And that’s it. Bills (and maybe Chiefs) aside, there are no teams so stout as to be complete stay-aways as opponent, and with home teams 24-24 right now, we can’t be scared about home/road situations.
Bit-by-Bit
I don’t feel comfortable eliminated teams in broad swaths from here, so I’m going to go through teams I’m eliminating for simple reasons before we get to the ones we have to really think about.
Atlanta Falcons (vs. New Orleans)
The Saints might not be as good as they were in Weeks 1-2, but there’s still enough risk facing that offense that we aren’t picking against them yet.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Buffalo)
The Bills appear to be really good. For the time being, I’m not picking against them.
Buffalo Bills (@ Baltimore)
They appear to be really good. They also have more than a short history of teasing us that they’re great before a crash-and-burn, and a Ravens team that is supposed to be better than it has been is a prime candidate for that.
Denver Broncos (@ NY Jets)
The Broncos righted the ship more than a little in Week 3 against Tampa Bay, but the Jets have a stout enough defense against a rookie quarterback who hasn’t thrown a touchdown yet that I’m not touching them.
Detroit Lions (vs. Seattle)
Jared Goff has disappointed so far this season, and Sam LaPorta either won’t play or will be at less than 100% with a low ankle sprain, while the Seahawks are one of the surprise teams so far this season.
Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota)
The Packers will either have Jordan Love in his first game back or Malik Willis in his third start, and either one could easily be a winning mixture but isn’t such a sure thing as to be bet-on-able.
Los Angeles Rams (@ Chicago)
For how impressive they were in Week 3 against the 49ers, it still took a furious comeback, and the Rams are just so injured that it’s hard to count on them in Chicago.
Minnesota Vikings (@ Green Bay)
While I’m not ready to cast my lot behind Malik Willis/hobbled Jordan Love, the job Matt LaFleur has done has been so impressive that I’m certainly not betting against them either.
New Orleans Saints (@ Atlanta)
Are the Week 1-2 Saints the real Saints, or are the Week 3 Saints the real Saints? We need more evidence to be sure.
Philadelphia Eagles (@ Tampa Bay)
The Eagles might be down A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Dallas Goedert is even suddenly questionable. It’s just too many concerns.
Seattle Seahawks (@ Detroit)
The Seahawks are a very impressive 3-0. The Lions needed overtime in Week 1 and a fortunate pick-6 overturn in Week 3 to avoid 0-3. But they were seen as strong Super Bowl contenders just a few weeks ago, so let’s hold off on bailing all the way just yet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Philadelphia)
The Buccaneers lost to the lowly-to-that-point Broncos last week.
Washington Commanders (@ Arizona)
It took Jayden Daniels not having a single mistake the last two weeks for the Commanders to get to 2-1 — the team hasn’t punted or had a turnover in consecutive weeks and only won those games by a combined 8 points. Even one mistake could easily cost them.
The Contenders
That leaves us with seven teams:
Arizona Cardinals (vs. Washington)
Dallas Cowboys (@ NY Giants)
Houston Texans (vs. Jacksonville)
Kansas City Chiefs (@ LA Chargers)
New York Jets (vs. Denver)
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Indianapolis)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. New England)
Let’s pro-and-con them like we have with our contenders all along:
Arizona Cardinals (vs. Washington)
Pros: Washington’s defense has been woeful so far.
Cons: It ain’t like the Cardinals have the Steel Curtain out there.
Dallas Cowboys (@ NY Giants)
Pros: It’s the Cowboys. And it’s the Giants.
Cons: Devin Singletary might run for 200 yards on this Cowboys run D.
Houston Texans (vs. Jacksonville)
Pros: Trevor Lawrence looks positively broken.
Cons: The Texans looked pretty broken themselves against Minnesota.
Kansas City Chiefs (@ LA Chargers)
Pros: The Chiefs at full strength draw the Chargers at maybe-missing-Justin-Herbert strength.
Cons: The Chiefs are 6-2 against the Chargers in the 2020s, but only one of those wins has been by more than 3 points in regulation. You don’t want a sweat like that.
New York Jets (vs. Denver)
Pros: The extra-rest Jets against a Broncos team that has exactly 1 touchdown from a skill player so far.
Cons: The Jets just kind of ran the Buccaneers off the field. Are you that sure about the Jets offense?
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Indianapolis)
Pros: The best defense in the league against Captain Turnover.
Cons: Justin Fields has let better people than you down in the past.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. New England)
Pros: The 49ers have to be angry at this point, and the Patriots aren’t very good.
Cons: One more injury and the 49ers fill out their punch card.
The Pick
Each week, I’ll offer up my No. 1 selection and a couple of honorable mentions. I’ve claimed to employ some game theory in these picks in past weeks, and I have, but at this point, I’m so cold I’m not worrying about the future and I’m just picking the winner. If I burn through the solid picks, that’s a problem for Future Daniel. The heck with that guy.
Kansas City Chiefs (@ LA Chargers)
Could you tell how much I forced the cons in that matchup? I even had to ignore that the Chiefs have won 10 straight at the Chargers. Sure, the Chargers have a good defense (though they’ll be missing Derwin James), and sure, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have yet to have true Patrick Mahomesian and Travis Kelceian games, but it’s hard to imagine a situation where this isn’t a walk for the defending champs.
Honorable Mention
San Francisco 49ers (vs. New England)
Dallas Cowboys (@ NY Giants)
2024 Record: 1-2
Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs
