Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 1 of the NFL season was crushing for loads of NFL Survivor contests, with the Patriots pulling off the biggest upset of the week in a win over the Bengals, the most popular pick in virtually every contest entering the season.
Luckily for you, if you read this piece a week ago, you avoided that pitfall, knowing the Bengals were 1-9 in Weeks 1-2 the last five years (now 1-10). Cincinnati should be a good team. But just put a big red X through that part of Ohio in September.
Each week in this space, I’ll be offering up my favorite NFL Eliminator (or NFL Survivor — we really need to settle on one name) picks for the week. Will I get some wrong? Probably! But I already outlasted a huge chunk of the electorate, so I already won, and so did you.
NFL Survivor Picks for Week 2
The first step in deciding which team to pick each week is deciding which teams not to pick. So I go through my elimination process to start this every time. As the season goes on, I will probably use these as soft eliminations, as I talk myself into picks that might otherwise be eliminated. For now, though, we’re sticking with the method.
Opponent Is Too Good
Are the Dolphins good? Yes, almost certainly. Does that mean you want them against the Bills? Not if you have a choice. Right away, you can cross out teams based on their opponents. This week, that list is:
Atlanta Falcons (@ Philadelphia)
Buffalo Bills (@ Miami)
Chicago Bears (@ Houston)
Cincinnati Bengals (@ Kansas City)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Cincinnati)
Las Vegas Raiders (@ Baltimore)
Miami Dolphins (vs. Buffalo)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. San Francisco)
New Orleans Saints (@ Dallas)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ Detroit)
They’re Too Bad
The Giants might be the worst team in the league, unless the Panthers are. But even when they play each other in Week 10, I can’t imagine taking either one. Terrible is terrible, and putting your money behind terrible doesn’t seem fun at all.
Carolina Panthers (vs. LA Chargers)
Denver Broncos (vs. Pittsburgh)
New England Patriots (vs. Seattle)
New York Giants (@ Washington)
Tennessee Titans (vs. NY Jets)
Washington Commanders (vs. NY Giants)
They’re on the Road
This is the category I’m going to become increasingly willing to overlook further into the season, but for now, it’s early, and I don’t trust the travel.
Cleveland Browns (@ Jacksonville)
Indianapolis Colts (@ Green Bay)
Los Angeles Chargers (@ Carolina)
Los Angeles Rams (@ Arizona)
New York Jets (@ Tennessee)
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Denver)
San Francisco 49ers (@ Minnesota)
Seattle Seahawks (@ New England)
The Candidates
Just like last week, our elimination process leaves us with eight options for Week 2. So let’s look at them one by one before we make our pick.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. LA Rams)
Pros: We’re like five days into the season and the Rams have already been decimated by injury. The Cardinals lost in Week 1, but they looked very frisky against a good Bills team on the road, and the Kyler Murray/Marvin Harrison Jr. chemistry should build.
Cons: Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp still exist, and the Cardinals defense is not built to stop them.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Las Vegas)
Pros: The Raiders managed only 10 points and 1 touchdown against the Chargers, and now have to travel across the country to take on a strong Ravens team on extra rest that is out for revenge after a crushing Week 1 loss.
Cons: Derrick Henry averaged 3.5 yards per carry, Zay Flowers totaled only 37 receiving yards, Mark Andrews only 14. The studs didn’t really show up for Baltimore in Week 1, and they’ll need them long term.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. New Orleans)
Pros: The Cowboys are 6.5-point favorites after dismantling the Browns in Week 1. They won by 16 (and it wasn’t that close) and made it decisive so early their studs weren’t even pressed, so they’re fresh.
Cons: It’s hard to look much worse than the Browns did in Week 1, while it’s hard to look much better than the Saints did. Granted, it was against the Panthers, but this Saints team is friskier than your normal 6.5-point underdog.
Detroit Lions (vs. Tampa Bay)
Pros: The Lions outlasted the Rams in Week 1 and roll into Week 2 as 7-point favorites with a good home-field advantage.
Cons: Should the Buccaneers — who hung right there with the Lions in the playoffs right there with a tie through three quarters and won decisively in Week 1 — really be 7-point dogs? The Bucs passing game was humming last week, and while yes, it was against the Commanders, we just saw Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp pick apart this Lions pass D last week.
Green Bay Packers (vs. Indianapolis)
Pros: Everything but the quarterback.
Cons: The quarterback. The switch from Jordan Love to (presumably) Malik Willis was enough that I almost listed the Packers in the “They’re Too Bad” section. They just barely escaped that classification, but there is absolutely no way to put your fates in the hands of Willis in Week 2.
Houston Texans (vs. Chicago)
Pros: The Bears had one of the worst offenses in the league in Week 1 (fifth worst by DVOA) and only won because Will Levis gave them the game. Meanwhile, the Texans offense looked very good, albeit against a piecemeal Colts D.
Cons: There’s no real reason to expect this Bears offense to continue to stink as Caleb Williams gets healthier. And the Bears have an excellent defense (seventh best by DVOA and should be better than that), which has been a situation C.J. Stroud has struggled in so far in his career.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Cleveland)
Pros: The Browns looked like a disaster in Week 1, with a quarterback who doesn’t look NFL-caliber and an injured offensive line that can’t keep him upright. The Jaguars really should be 1-0, with a late fumble costing them a likely win.
Cons: For all the problems of the Cleveland offense in Week 1, the Cleveland defense should still be better than it fared in Week 1. Believing in an offense that best-case scenario is “slightly above average” against that defense is scary.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Atlanta)
Pros: Even with Jalen Hurts looking a bit rough in Week 1, the Eagles handled a strong Packers team that didn’t lose its quarterback until the last 30 seconds of the game. Meanwhile, the Falcons offense looked totally discombobulated in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, and while yes, the Steelers D is better than the one in Philly, there have to be alarm bells in Atlanta.
Cons: Hurts’ struggles in Week 1 were a bit unnerving, and another of those ugly interceptions could be enough to cost the Eagles.
The Pick
Each week, I’ll offer up my No. 1 selection along with a couple of honorable mentions. It’s not just a winner pick, there’s game theory, because in this sort of game you always want to save some stud teams for later in the season so you don’t have to sweat so much later in the year.
The Pick: Baltimore Ravens (vs. Las Vegas)
We have no double-digit lines in Week 2, but the Ravens at -9.5 against the Raiders comes close. The Raiders didn’t look ready for the season against the Chargers, and the Ravens are a far better team. I had to force a “con” above — “they won despite their stars not producing” isn’t exactly a big ding.
Honorable Mention
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Atlanta)
Houston Texans (vs. Chicago)
2024 Record: 1-0
Week 1: Bills
Week 2: Ravens
