Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There are two competing theories on when is the easier/harder time of year to make selections in NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator. On the one hand, during the early part of the season, the world is your oyster. No teams are off limits, you can pick anyone. Meanwhile, later in the season, you’re the last person at the bar and have to pick whoever is available. Maybe it isn’t your first choice, maybe you don’t even like it that much.
But the flip side! Early in the season, we don’t know as much as we’d like. We can surmise, but teams change, and sometimes what we think we know turns out to just be wrong. Later in the season, we know teams for what they are, not what we think they are.
Which is correct? Well, this is one data point, but if we divide the 2024 season so far into five-week chunks, I went 2-3 in the first five weeks and 5-0 in the second five, so knowing the teams has been better for my personal picking than having all 32 options at my disposal.
Which brings us to my Week 11 pick in NFL Survivor. I’ll take you through my whole process before landing on my selection for the week. Follow along if you’re still going.
NFL Survivor Picks for Week 11
First off, we have four bye teams. Easy eliminations!
Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers
New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Four down.
Thursday
Thursdays remain weird. I’m just never going to consider teams in the weirdest of spots.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington)
Washington Commanders (@Philadelphia)
Two more gone, 26 to go.
They’re Too Bad
Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay)
Cleveland Browns (@ New Orleans)
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Houston)
Indianapolis Colts (@ NY Jets)
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Detroit)
Las Vegas Raiders (@ Miami)
New England Patriots (vs. LA Rams)
New Orleans Saints (vs. Cleveland)
New York Jets (vs. Indianapolis)
Tennessee Titans (vs. Minnesota)
That’s 10 more and gets us down to 16 remaining candidates
Tough Matchups
Just a blanket “Oh, [that team] vs. [that team]? I’m out. Not worth the heartache.” Spoiler: There are a lot of good matchups this week!
Atlanta Falcons (@ Denver)
Baltimore Ravens (@ Pittsburgh)
Buffalo Bills (vs. Kansas City)
Cincinnati Bengals (@ LA Chargers)
Denver Broncos (vs. Atlanta)
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Buffalo)
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Cincinnati)
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Baltimore)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle)
Seattle Seahawks (@ San Francisco)
That’s 10 more. Only six teams left. That’s handy for picking, but it means we don’t have a lot of leeway in our final selection.
The Contenders
After the elimination process, we’re down to six teams. There are some nice situations here.
Detroit Lions (vs. Jacksonville)
Green Bay Packers (@ Chicago)
Houston Texans (@ Dallas)
Los Angeles Rams (@ New England)
Miami Dolphins (vs. Las Vegas)
Minnesota Vikings (@ Tennessee)
Of these teams, I have used two so far this season (Texans, Week 6; Vikings, Week 9). Both would be defensible picks this week, especially the Cowboys given their mess, but also, both teams are on the road, so maybe it’s just as well we pass on them. So you are free to select those teams, but I will be looking elsewhere.
Beyond that, let’s see if we can eliminate any of the other candidates.
- I do think the Dolphins win this week — they’ve improved since Tua Tagovailoa’s return, while the Raiders are a mess. That said, the Raiders are coming off their bye, and the Dolphins still aren’t very good. This is a “think they’ll win, but I’ll pass.”
- The Rams are coming off of a deflating loss, while the Patriots just had a rejuvenating win. Again, I think the Rams win, but I’ll hold off until we see them play like they are supposed to.
The Pick
Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions.
Green Bay Packers (@ Chicago)
Honestly? I was hoping to not have to make this pick. The Packers are a good team and the Bears are a bad one, but this is also the “It’s now or never” game for Chicago, and there’s the chance of a new-OC bounce. But that’s all narrative-driven, and the simple truth is that the Packers (ninth in our NFL power rankings, ninth in team total DVOA) are worlds better than the Bears (22nd, 24th). And while the Lions are probably a better bet to win this week (especially with Trevor Lawrence out again), Detroit’s schedule going forward (Colts, Bears twice) is much friendlier than Green Bay’s. If you want to take Detroit, I cannot fault you, but personally, I’m saving the Lions for a better shot at using them later in the season.
Honorable Mention
Detroit Lions (vs. Jacksonville)
Houston Texans (@ Dallas) — if you didn’t use them when I did.
2024 Record: 7-3
Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs (W)
Week 5: Seahawks (L)
Week 6: Texans (W)
Week 7: Bengals (W)
Week 8: Broncos (W)
Week 9: Vikings (W)
Week 10: Chargers (W)
Week 11: Packers
