NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 10

The NFL season started out crazy. Obviously, we don’t have much evidence early in the season and so we’re flying blind in the early weeks compared to later ones, but even with that, outcomes like “Patriots over Bengals,” “Raiders over Ravens” and even “Giants over Browns” were ones we wouldn’t have picked two weeks ago, let alone early in the season.

Lately, either the craziness has leveled off or I’ve gotten better at picking, because after starting 2-3 in my NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator advice, I’ve rolled off four straight wins to get to 6-3. Obviously, Survivor contests are lose-and-you’re-out, so I’m rolling through the third consolation bracket right now, but hey, (mild) success is (mild) success.

Let’s keep it going. Below you’ll see my process for landing on my pick for Week 10.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 10

First off, we have four bye teams. Easy eliminations!

Cleveland Browns
Green Bay Packers
Las Vegas Raiders
Seattle Seahawks

Four down.

Thursday/Germany

Thursdays remain weird, and so are Europe ones. I’m just never going to consider teams in the weirdest of spots.

Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati)
Cincinnati Bengals (@ Baltimore)
Carolina Panthers (vs. NY Giants)
New York Giants (@ Carolina)

Four more gone, 24 to go.

They’re Too Bad

Some parts of my process haven’t worked out, but I am flatly determined to have a handful of teams each week I just refuse to pick. Some will win. This isn’t a prediction that these teams will all lose. It’s just that they’re bad enough that I couldn’t confidently pick them.

Chicago Bears (vs. New England)
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Philadelphia)
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Buffalo)
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Minnesota)
Miami Dolphins (@ LA Rams)
New England Patriots (@ Chicago)
New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta)
New York Jets (@ Arizona)
Tennessee Titans (@ LA Chargers)

Nine more. 15 to go.

Tough Matchups

Just a blanket “Oh, [that team] vs. [that team]? I’m out. Not worth the heartache.”

Detroit Lions (@ Houston)
Houston Texans (vs. Detroit)
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Washington)
San Francisco 49ers (@ Tampa Bay)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. San Francisco)
Washington Commanders (vs. Pittsburgh

Six out, nine left to figure out.

Bit-by-Bit

I don’t feel comfortable eliminating teams in broad swaths from here, so I’m going to go through teams I’m eliminating for simple reasons before we get to the ones we have to really think about.

Arizona Cardinals (vs. NY Jets)

The Cardinals were probably the worst team to make it to this point, while the Jets were probably the best team to be in the “they’re too bad” section. Ultimately, this game probably should have gone in the “Tough Matchups” section.

Denver Broncos (@ Kansas City)

The “Tough Matchups” section is meant to be where I can eliminate both sides of a game. You definitely won’t pick the Broncos against the Chiefs, but the Chiefs against the Broncos? Some might go there.

Los Angeles Rams (vs. Miami)

The Dolphins still haven’t put the offense all together since Tua Tagovailoa’s return. But after peaking with 20 points in Weeks 1-6, the Dolphins have scored 27 in back-to-back games with Tua back. And the Rams pass defense is the kind that might allow the pass offense to start clicking. That’s enough to scare me off here.

Three more gone! Six left!

The Contenders

After the elimination process, we’re down to six teams. There are some nice situations here.

Atlanta Falcons (@ New Orleans)
Buffalo Bills (@ Indianapolis)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver)
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Tennessee)
Minnesota Vikings (@ Jacksonville)
Philadelphia Eagles (@ Dallas)

For my official pick, I can’t take the Bills, Chiefs or Vikings, as I’ve already taken all three, but I only consider that for the final choice; otherwise, this is just “who should you pick in a blank-slate situation.” So some tidbits:

• Four of the six teams here are on the road, which isn’t the biggest factor in making a decision but is a good tiebreaker.
• As I work through the better teams in the league through this exercise, it’s worth looking at which teams have easier schedules down the stretch. The Eagles and Falcons should present plenty of opportunities going forward, and the Bills close with Patriots-Jets-Patriots. You save things like that.

The Pick

Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions.

Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Tennessee)

We don’t yet know for sure whether Will Levis or Mason Rudolph will start for Tennessee this week. But also … we don’t really care. Per FTN Data, Levis is fourth in the league (min. 75 attempts) in turnover-worthy throw percentage at 6.4%, just barely ahead of Rudolph (6.3%). The Chargers defense should have little trouble with this Tennessee offense, and the offense is doing well enough to win a low-scoring game. It’s the Billy Volek Memorial Bowl!

Honorable Mention

Atlanta Falcons (@ New Orleans)
Buffalo Bills (@ Indianapolis) — if you didn’t use them when I did

2024 Record: 6-3

Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs (W)
Week 5: Seahawks (L)
Week 6: Texans (W)
Week 7: Bengals (W)
Week 8: Broncos (W)
Week 9: Vikings (W)
Week 10: Chargers