NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 1

The return of the NFL season means the return of everyone’s favorite game that you might only play for one day: NFL Eliminator. Or NFL Survivor, because we are terrible at picking a single name for something.

Starting as early as Thursday night, we’ll be picking a winner each week of the NFL season … or at least as long as we’re right. There will be some wild game in Week 1 that knocks out a significant percentage of players.

Let’s try to avoid that pitfall, cool?

Each week in this space, I’ll be offering up my favorite NFL Eliminator (or, if you prefer, NFL Survivor) picks for the week. I’ll probably be wrong sometimes! But I’ll try, and really, isn’t that more important than being right?

… I’m being told it is not. But OK! Here we go!

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 1

Let’s start by eliminating (well, that word is tough to use for those purposes in this particular piece) some teams from consideration. Narrow our choices down.

Opponent Is Too Good

Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it’s too hard to trust them given who they are facing.

Arizona Cardinals (@ Buffalo)
Baltimore Ravens (@ Kansas City)
Detroit Lions (vs. LA Rams)
Green Bay Packers (@ Philadelphia)
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Baltimore)
Los Angeles Rams (@ Detroit)
New York Jets (@ San Francisco)
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Green Bay)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. NY Jets)

Some of these teams will win — in some cases, like Ravens/Chiefs, it’s all but guaranteed — but, especially in Week 1, you can’t confidently say so, considering who they’re facing.

They’re Too Bad

You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you’re the second-worst team, well, I’m still not going to be too excited about selecting you.

Carolina Panthers (@ New Orleans)
Denver Broncos (@ Seattle)
Las Vegas Raiders (@ LA Chargers)
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Las Vegas)
Minnesota Vikings (@ NY Giants)
New England Patriots (@ Cincinnati)
New Orleans Saints (vs. Carolina)
New York Giants (vs. Minnesota)
Washington Commanders (@ Tampa Bay)

Some of these teams will be better than we expect. And as the season goes on, sometimes taking the fifth-worst team against the worst-worst team does make sense. But this early, there’s no sense in leaving your fate in the hands of teams that are expected to struggle.

They’re On the Road

Road teams win! They win a lot! But you’ll feel silly if you go that way this week.

Dalals Cowboys (@ Cleveland)
Houston Texans (@ Indianapolis)
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Miami)
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Atlanta)
Tennessee Titans (@ Chicago)

That leaves us with eight teams remaining. That means we have eight options for our Week 1 pick. Let’s break them down.

The Candidates

Atlanta Falcons (vs. Pittsburgh)

Pros: The Falcons are the popular pick to win the NFC South, and the Steelers are the popular pick to have their quarterback laughed at for like six different reasons — some football, some not.

Cons: The NFC South is really bad, so being the pick of the litter there is sort of like being the best snowboarder in Egypt. Low bar. (I don’t actually know if this is true, maybe Egypt has a booming snowboarding scene. But it makes sense to me!) The Steelers are always competitive.

Buffalo Bills (vs. Arizona)

November 17, 2019, Miami Gardens, Florida, USA: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) in action during an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Mario Houben/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)

Pros: Josh Allen against a miserable defense? Be still my heart.

Cons: Josh Allen with a rebuilt group of targets and a pared-down-because-of-the-cap defense? At that point, it’s almost entirely a bet just on that one guy.

Chicago Bears (vs. Tennessee)

Pros: The Bears’ moving-toward-elite-territory defense from last year faces Will Levis, who didn’t show much as a rookie. If the Titans’ O-line changes this offseason don’t take, it could be a long day.

Cons: Caleb Williams should be a superduperstar, and he could be it fairly quickly. But do you really want to lay your season in the hands of a rookie quarterback in his first career game? And a rookie Bears quarterback at that?

Cincinnati Bengals (vs. New England)

Pros: The Patriots have a very good argument to be the worst team in football this year. The Bengals have most of the pieces they used to go to the Super Bowl a few years ago. There’s a good chance this is a big mismatch.

Cons: The Bengals have lost not only Week 1 but also Week 2 in four of the last five years (2021, when they started 1-1, was the exception). Ja’Marr Chase barely practiced all preseason, and we don’t really know how Joe Burrow is going to take to throwing the ball regularly.

Cleveland Browns (vs. Dallas)

Pros: The Browns have an elite defense, while the Cowboys potentially have a more porous offensive line than they’ve had since the pre-Dak Prescott era. Dallas’ paucity of reliability on offense could doom the team — after CeeDee Lamb, the number of Cowboys skill players you can count on could be “zero,” and Lamb missed much of camp with a holdout, so he might not be up to speed.

Cons: For all that, Dallas is still a good team, borderline warranting entry in the “Opponent Is Too Good” section above. And of course, leaving your fate to Deshaun Watson is a scary proposition.

Miami Dolphins (vs. Jacksonville)

Pros: Arguably the most exciting offense in the league is generally at its best during the warm weather, and that’s this time of year. All the fancy weapons in Miami are available.

BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 18: Miami Dolphins wide receivers Tyreek Hill (10) and Jaylen Waddle (17) line up next to each other on the line of scrimmage during the Miami Dolphins versus Baltimore Ravens NFL game at M&T Bank Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Baltimore, MD (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire) — BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 18: Miami Dolphins wide receivers Tyreek Hill (10) and Jaylen Waddle (17) line up next to each other on the line of scrimmage during the Miami Dolphins versus Baltimore Ravens NFL game at M&T Bank Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Baltimore, MD (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

Cons: Jacksonville’s a nice rebound candidate after an injury- and bad luck-ravaged 2023. And with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both missing some practices late in camp, it’s possible the Dolphins aren’t actually at full strength.

Seattle Seahawks (vs. Denver)

Pros: The Broncos carry only a 5.5-win over/under on DraftKings Sportsbook and will be running out a rookie quarterback with a piecemeal receiving corps. The Broncos haven’t beaten Seattle in Seattle since 2002 (they’ve only played there twice since, but it’s a fun anecdote).

Cons: First-time head coach in his first game? Sean Payton getting to handpick his quarterback? It’s risky.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Washington)

Pros: Washington’s pass defense was almost historically bad, and Tampa brings in one of the best 1-2 punches at receiver in recent memory. A rookie quarterback who likes to run first is a big question mark in his debut.

Cons: How much of last year’s Baker Mayfield success was Baker’s, vs. how much should be credited to Dave Canales? Also, the last time Washington took a big-armed run-heavy QB second overall, they put up 40 points in Week 1 as Robert Griffin III beat an NFC South team 40-32.

The Pick

Each week, I’ll offer up my No. 1 selection, as well as a couple of honorable mentions. Remember, it’s not just a pick of who might win a game, there’s game theory — if there’s a team that is likely to be reliable later in the season, I might not rank them No. 1 even if I think they are the best bet to win a game this week as well.

The Pick: Buffalo Bills (vs. Arizona)

It might be risky given the dissolution of the Buffalo defense and a patchwork receiving corps, but Josh Allen, against that defense, at home? I’m in.