NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
After winning back-to-back divisional titles with two consecutive trips to the AFC Conference Championship, the Bengals find themselves outside the playoff picture losing three of their first four games. At 1-4, Cincinnati sits dead last in the AFC North, needing to make up ground sooner rather than later. They have been the most disappointing offense through the first month of the season, ranked 31st in scoring (12.3 points per game) and 32nd in yards per game (236). As a unit, the Bengals’ offense is bottom 10 in DVOA (23rd) with the fifth-lowest mark in passing (12.4%). Although Joe Burrow has been available all four games, he hasn’t looked the same playing through a calf strain, but appears to be getting healthier, after being removed from the injury report for the first time last week.
Unfortunately, the team has a more serious injury to worry about with Tee Higgins, who exited the last game with a rib injury. The severity of the injury is to be determined, but Sports Injury Central provided a potential diagnosis in the SIC Roundup: Key Injuries From Week 4.
Higgins has not been ruled out yet, but his chances of suiting up in Week 5 don’t look great, already listed as DNP Wednesday. Losing Higgins would be a significant blow for Cincy, already approaching must-win territory. He’s been a focal point of the offense this season, scoring two of their three total touchdowns, tied for first in the NFL in targets inside the 5 (2). Higgins’s 43.5% air-yard share is also sixth among all players through four games. In this article, I’m going to use the Splits Tool to take a look at how the Bengals’ offense has functioned when Higgins has missed or failed to surpass a 50% snap share dating back to 2021, the year Ja’Marr Chase was drafted.
Joe Burrow, QB
Joe Burrow was regarded as one of the best young quarterbacks in the league entering 2023, becoming the highest-paid player in NFL history over the offseason. Since returning from a torn ACL in 2021, Burrow has played at an MVP level, posting back-to-back seasons with at least 4,475 yards through the air, leading his team to double-digit victories two years in a row. His numbers as a passer take a slight hit across the board with Tee Higgins out of the lineup, averaging 9.14 fewer passing yards and 0.49 more interceptions per game. However, he does run more, which will unlikely be the case with his calf injury. Bryan Knowles broke down why it may be time to Rest Burrow.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR
Ja’Marr Chase has been one of the best wide receivers since entering the league, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2021, and recording the fifth-most receiving yards by any player in their first two seasons (2,501). His production without Tee Higgins has been relatively the same, averaging 0.86 more targets per game 0.29 more receptions, but 0.07 receiving yards. Through four weeks, Chase is top-six in the NFL in targets (41) and reception (29) but has yet to find the endzone. That could change if Higgins is out, who currently leads the team with two receiving touchdowns.
Tyler Boyd, WR
Tyler Boyd has continued to fall the pecking order since Ja’Marr Chase’s arrival, operating as the third option behind two alpha wide receivers. He failed to surpass 800 receiving yards for the first time since 2017 last season, catching 58 passes for 762 yards and five touchdowns. When Tee Higgins is out of the lineup, Boyd receives a boost in targets (+0.59), receptions (+0.44), and receiving touchdowns (+0.09), but averages 0.07 fewer receiving yards. His 10.6 PPR points per game without Higgins makes him a viable flex option with a low ceiling. He’s had a promising target share the last three weeks (21%), seeing seven or more looks in all three games.
Other Notes
- Irv Smith returned to practice after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury.
- Trenton Irwin was the first wide receiver to see the field once Tee Higgins left, posting season highs in snap share (42%) and route participation rate (43%) in Week 4.
SIC Matchup
