NFL Splits Tool, Week 3: Week 3 Injury Concerns

The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.

The Giants narrowly avoided disaster in Week 2, erasing a 21-point deficit against the Joshua Dobbs-led Cardinals. Starting with a Saquon Barkley rushing touchdown in the third quarter, New York scored 24 unanswered points, ultimately winning the game 31-28. Barkley found the end zone one more time in the fourth quarter, hauling in a nine-yard receiving touchdown. He was the catalyst of the offense, handling 17 carries for 63 rushing yards on the ground and a team-high six receptions, for 29 yards through the air. Only Darren Waller saw more targets than Barkley (8), matching him in receptions (6). Barkley’s heavy involvement in the passing game has been the norm under Brian Daboll, dating back to last season when he led the team in targets (76) and tied for first in receptions (57). Missing their All-Pro running back in Week 3, the Giants were embarrassed Thursday night, defeated by the 49ers 30-12. Although Barkley was initially questionable to suit up earlier in the week, it was never likely based on his 16 SIC score.

The score is defined as a proprietary numerical injury index grading system, powered by algorithms that incorporate the health of teams or in this case, an individual player. It ranges from 1 to 100, with the latter indicating full health. The current diagnosis is a right ankle sprain, similar to the one he suffered in 2021, but on the left side. He missed three games that season, trending toward a similar timeline. and is on after missing 14 the previous year with a torn ACL. In this article, I’m going to use the Splits Tool to look at how Barkley’s absence has impacted the offense leading up to Week 3, dating back to 2020 when he missed 14 games with a torn ACL in Daniel Jones’ rookie season. The only starting pass-catcher who has played games with and without Barkly in New York is Darius Slayton, who has been with the team for five seasons.

Daniel Jones, QB

Daniel Jones thrived in his first season with Brian Daboll, throwing for a career-high 3,205 passing yards and 15 passing touchdowns in 2022. He also posted his best season as a rusher, carrying the ball 120 times for 708 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. There’s no denying Daboll’s impact on Jones’ progression, however, last season was also the first time he had Barkley available in every game he started. Since entering the league, Jones’ production has been significantly better with Barkley. Excluding this week, Jones has averaged over 25 yards through the air (+25.08 yards) and over 10 yards on the ground (+10.36 yards) with Barkley in the lineup. He also finds the end zone more often with Barkly active, with a significantly lower turnover rate. In Weeks 1-2, nine of Jones’ 41 completions went to Barkley, who at the time was tied for first on the team receptions (9) and receiving touchdowns (1). Jones’s first game without Barkley in 2023 was ugly, shut out of the end zone for the first time this season. Despite playing without their lead back, Jones handled just two carries for five yards, after leading all quarterbacks in rushing attempts (22) and rushing yards (102) entering Week 3. 

Darius Slayton, WR

Darius Slayton seemingly fell out of favor with the new coaching at the start of last season, playing limited snaps and reportedly on the trading block. However, Slayton solidified himself as a mainstay on the roster as the season progressed, leading the team in receiving yards (724) in 2023. He signed a two-year deal to return to New York this offseason and has been the team’s most reliable wide receiver thus far. In the first two games with Saquon Barkley, Slayton led the Giants in route participation rate (77%), posting a team-high 34% air-yard share. He saw 11 targets in Week 1-2, the same as Barkley, trailing only Darren Waller. In his first game without Barkley this season, Slayton continued to lead the G-Men in route participation rate (83%) and air yard share (36%), finishing only behind Waller in targets (6). Although his 32 receiving yards on the day don’t necessarily jump out, it was the highest mark on the team. Since Daniel Jones was drafted, prior to this week, Slayton has averaged 5.4 targets, 3 receptions, 45 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving touchdowns in 29 games where he’s recorded a 20%-plus snap snare with Barkley inactive.

Other Week 3 Takeaways

• Matt Breida slotted in as the starting running back without Saquon Barkley, recording an 82% snap share. He handled just four carries for 17 yards but saved his day with an eight-yard rushing touchdown. Breida ran a route on 67% of Jones’s dropbacks, catching all three targets for just one yard. Although Gary Brightwell was out snapped by Breida 41-9, he saw just as many carries and one fewer target (2), finishing second on the team in receiving yards (31). Breida is still the preferred option as a desperate flex.
• Brandon Aiyuk was listed as a game-time decision before getting ruled out with an AC joint sprain. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle were the primary beneficiary of Aiyuk’s absence, combing for a 61.76% target share, accounting for 70.65% of the 49ers yardage through the air. Christian McCaffrey’s receiving usage also got a boost, finishing third on the team in targets (5), receptions (5), and receiving yards (34). Aiyuk currently has a 72 SIC score, meaning he’s likely to return in Week 4.

Monday Night Nugget

As of Friday, Joe Burrow is questionable ahead of the Bengals’ prime-time matchup against the Rams. Although we don’t have a large enough sample size of Ja’Marr Chase without Burrow (even back to college), we have seen Tee Higgins play with a different quarterback, dating back to his rookie season. After Burrow tore his ACL in Week 11 of the 2020 season, Higgins continued to be viable for fantasy, posting double-digit PPR points (10.7). While catching passes from a combination of Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley, Higgins averaged six targets, four receptions, 46.5 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving touchdowns. It’s worth noting that Chase was not yet a Bengal, but entering Week 3, Higgins currently leads the team in targets (20), receiving yards (89), and receiving touchdowns (2). Per FTN Air Yards Tool, Higgins’s 61.88% team air yard share is the highest mark in the NFL. The Sports Injury Central player insight for Burrow states:

 “Stretched before practice but officially DNP Thursday — team taking it “day-by-day” but Pro Football Docs assert 1 week of rest will not solve issue — team has choice to sit him for multiple weeks or allow him to play through — appeared to reaggravate his right calf injury after throwing TD pass to Tee Higgins in 4th quarter — if he plays he won’t be mobile outside the pocket.” 

It’s best to have a backup plan if you’re relying on Burrow this week, currently possessing an 82 SIC score.