Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Even if your trade deadline has passed (note: trade deadlines do not belong in dynasty), I still offer you some dynasty moves to make to improve your chances this season and next. There are no buys this week, but I have a big-name sell whose value is about bottom out and five guys to pick up (no burgers and fries) who could be floating on dynasty waivers.
As a reminder, buying doesn’t mean getting a player for Jonathan Mingo and an unopened bag of Doritos 3Ds. Selling doesn’t mean you must rid your rosters of said player for 10 cents on the dollar. When players are improperly valued, take advantage.
Dynasty Moves to Make: Sells
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
In the middle of a down season and ancient in terms of dynasty wide receivers, Tyreek Hill’s value isn’t what it once was. But back-to-back games with a score offers a smidgen of a boost to get whatever you can before his value craters. The return of Tua Tagovailoa won’t be enough to return Hill to elite status. I used FTN StatsHub to compare Hill’s production in the five games since Tua returned to Hill’s 2023 numbers, and there’s a stark difference. Almost every single efficiency metric that matters is down significantly.
2023 versus 2024
- Yards Per Target: 2023: 10.5, 2024: 8.8
- Yards Per Reception: 2023: 15.1, 2024: 11.4
- Yards After The Catch Per reception: 2023: 5.5, 2024: 2.5
- Targets Per Game: 2023: 10.7, 2024: 7.4
- Receptions Per Game: 2023: 6.5, 2024: 5
- Yards Per Route Run: 2023: 3.9, 2024: 1.9
What’s concerning is his average depth of target is virtually the same, 10.8 yards to 10.1, and his snap percentage is actually higher, 85.6% to 62.5%. Hill’s target share has significantly shrunk as well. Last season, only he and Waddle had a double-digit target share, Hill seeing 28.6% of Tua’s throws. Since Week 8 (Tua’s return), Hill’s target share is 19.0%. De’Von Achane sees 18.2%, Jonnu Smith 17.5% and Jaylen Waddle 12.4%. Hill’s skills are on the decline, and his targets are dwindling too. make the move pronto.
Players I’d be willing to trade Hill for 1 for 1: DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Brian Thomas Jr.
Trade Hill if: you can get a WR2 or better
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