NFL Splits Tool, Week 3: Eagles Down Brown

Each week I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to evaluate different teams, monitoring some of the most critical situations around the league.

The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate the impact of different situations and environmental factors by comparing and contrasting historical data based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching changes, current and former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

No A.J. Brown

Two days ahead of their Monday night showdown against Atlanta, the Eagles added A.J. Brown to the injury report after he reportedly strained his hamstring in practice. He was initially listed as questionable before ultimately getting ruled out the following day. The absence of Brown hurt Philly’s offense, particularly through the air, but they still should’ve defeated the Falcons had it not been for an uncharacteristic drop by Saquon Barkley that would have resulted in a first down and sealed the game. Per Next Gen Stats, Atlanta had just a 0.7% win probability with less than two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, pulling off the seventh-biggest upset in the NGS era.

Since being traded to the Eagles, Brown hadn’t missed a single game in the regular season before last week and could be sidelined for some time.

Jalen Hurts, QB

Jalen Hurts was limited as a passer without Brown, completing 23 out of 30 dropbacks for 183 yards and a touchdown, throwing a costly interception on the final drive. Still, he got home for fantasy thanks to his production on the ground, rushing 13 times for 86 yards and a score and finishing as the QB2 on the week. It was a big improvement from his last game without Brown, rushing for just five yards on one carry in the playoffs, battling through a knee injury. 

DeVonta Smith, WR

DeVonta Smith stepped up big time in Brown’s absence, catching seven for 76 yards and a score, leading the team with a 34.48% target share and 59.89% air-yard share. Without Brown, Smith has thrived as the alpha of the offense, averaging 7.5 receptions and 112 receiving yards over the last two games, seeing double-digit targets in both outings.

Dallas Goedert, TE

Dallas Goedert has seen his role dwindle in the Kellen Moore offense, totaling less than 70 yards through two weeks (69). He caught just three balls for 38 yards in his last game without Brown, finishing fourth on the team in targets (5). The addition of Saquon Barkley has pushed Goedert down the pecking order, and he has surprisingly been worse without Brown.