NFL Splits Tool, Week 2: Richardson Is Back

Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books, finally giving us some data to work with for the 2024 season. Each week I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to gather new information and look ahead to some of the most critical situations around the league.

The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate how different situations and environmental factors can impact individual players and teams based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching, current or former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

ARich Is Back

The Colts may have lost Week 1 but couldn’t have asked for a much better performance from Anthony Richardson, who showed no signs of rust in his first game back from shoulder surgery. He attempted just 19 passes but threw for 212 yards and two touchdowns compared to one interception, averaging 11.2 yards per attempt. Richardson showed no limitations as a rusher either, handling six carries for 56 yards and a rushing score, finishing as the QB4 on the week. With Richardson back under center, the offense looked a lot different than it did with Gardner Minshew last season, ranked dead last among all 32 teams in offensive plays in Week 1 (43).

Michael Pittman, WR

Michael Pittman saw a team-high eight targets in Week 1, posting the second-highest target share in the league (42.1%), but caught just four passes for 31 yards. He’s been the clear top option no matter who’s been under center, but the lack of passing volume with Anthony Richardson has capped Pittman’s upside. In four games with Richardson logging 20-plus snaps over the last two seasons, Pittman has averaged less than 50 receiving yards (48.8) on just 4.5 catches. 

Alec Pierce, WR

Alec Piece balled out in Week 1, setting a career-high in receiving yards by catching all three of his passes for 125 yards and a touchdown. Although the performance was encouraging, it’s hard to trust Pierce as anything more than a boom/bust flex given the larger sample size. He’s caught more than one pass in just two out of four games with Richardson playing at least 20 snaps, benefiting from the absence of Josh Downs last week. Even without Downs, Pierce’s 15.8% target share ranked third on the team, trailing both Michael Pittman and Adonai Mitchell whose underlying numbers were a lot more encouraging. Mitchell caught one ball for two yards, but saw a 26.3% target share, barely missing out on two wide open scores.