NFL Splits Tool, Week 18: The Penix Mightier?

Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to evaluate different teams, monitoring some of the most critical situations around the league.

The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate the impact of different situations and environmental factors by comparing and contrasting historical data based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching changes, current and former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

Kirk Out, Penix In

The Falcons’ Week 17 loss to the Commanders was crushing to their odds of making the postseason. They no longer control their own destiny, needing the Buccaneers to lose to the Spencer Rattler-led Saints this week to retake the No. 1 seed in the NFC South. First-round rookie Michael Penix Jr. made a handful of clutch plays to send the game into overtime but has yet to top 225 passing yards as a starter, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt on a 59.7% completion rate. The lower passing volume has led to a lot more opportunities for Bijan Robinson on the ground, but the target distribution has also looked significantly different with Penix under center. Although Kyle Pitts caught Penix’s second career touchdown pass to send the game into overtime, he’s still been a part-time player in the offense, playing on just 43% of the offensive snaps, averaging 2.5 receptions for 25.5 yards over the last two weeks.

Drake London, WR

Drake London has been the No. 1 target in Atlanta all season, but he’s started to separate himself as a true alpha over the last two weeks, leading the team with a 32.8% target share and 39.7% air yard share. With Penix as the starter, London is averaging six receptions on 10.5 targets for 82.5 yards, surpassing 100 receiving yards (106) for just the second time in Week 17.

Darnell Mooney, WR

Darnell Mooney ended up being one of the better values in fantasy drafts, finishing as a top-30 wide receiver, but his usage has taken a hit with Penix under center, seeing just a 17.2% target share and 23.4% air share over the last two weeks, compared to 19.7% target share and 34.2% air yard share with Kirk Cousins He’s finished as a WR3 or worse in both games started by Penix, averaging 3.5 grabs on 5.5 targets for 59.5 yards.