NFL Splits Tool, Week 1: Jets with a Quarterback?

Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, with the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs set to take on the Ravens in an AFC Championship rematch Thursday. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the most critical situations around the league.

The splits tool is a great way to evaluate how different situations and environmental factors can impact individual players and teams based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching, current or former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

J-E-T-S

The Jets’ 2023 season was seemingly already over in Week 1, with Aaron Rodgers playing just four snaps before tearing his Achilles. It had looked like the team had finally moved on from the Zach Wilson experiment, but they had no choice but to go back to the third-year signal caller, who pulled off a miraculous comeback, defeating the Bills 22-16 thanks to a walk-off 65-yard punt return in overtime. Wilson would go on to start the next 10 games before unsurprisingly getting benched and relegated to the QB3 in Week 12.

After two games of watching from the sidelines, Wilson was again reinserted back into the starting lineup, with the Jets pulling out all the stops, still in the hunt for the playoffs. The layoff did Wilson well, as he looked like a completely different player in his return, leading his team to 30-6 blowout victory against the up-and-coming Texans, completing 75% of his passes (27-of-36) for 301 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. When it looked like things were finally turning around for Wilson, he suffered a concussion midgame the following week, ultimately keeping him out for the rest of the season.

Entering 2024, Wilson gets a fresh start in Denver, traded to the Broncos earlier this offseason. In this article, I’ll be using the splits tool to break down how the most notable members of the Jets offense fared with and without Wilson over the last two seasons. 

Garrett Wilson, WR

No player has seen more targets in their first two seasons in the NFL than Garrett Wilson, logging 315 targets in 2022-2023. His 31.34% target share and 78.96 WOPR ranked second behind only Davante Adams last season, leading the league with a 45.63% air yard share. Although the usage was great, Wilson saw the second most targets deemed as uncatchable per PFF despite finishing tied for fifth overall in ESPN’s “Open Score” (82). His ceiling has been capped by poor quarterback play, especially Zach Wilson, hindering his receiving production across the board.

Breece Hall, RB

Less than a year removed from a torn ACL, Breece Hall was phenomenal in his sophomore season, finishing with the fourth-most yards from scrimmage in the NFL (1,585), trailing only reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey among running backs. Even at less than 100% health, Hall was one of the most explosive backs in the league, finishing second among all players (min. 200 rushing attempts) in yards after contact per carry (3.4) and third in PFF’s elusive rating. Per Next Gen Stats, Hall’s +0.67 rush yards per carry over expected was the sixth-highest mark in the league, despite playing behind an offensive lineman that ranked 29th in run-block win rate. As great as Hall was as a rusher, he also played a critical role as a pass catcher, leading all running backs in targets (95), receptions (76), and receiving yards (591). He was one of the few bright spots on an offense that ranked dead last in DVOA (-29.8%) last season, averaging the second-fewest yards per game (268.6).

The Jets were cautious with Hall’s usage early on, limiting him to a sub-50% snap share over the first eight games of the season (49%), giving the bulk of the work to a combination of Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter, both gone from the team. However, in the last three weeks of the season, already eliminated from playoff contention for quite some time, we got a glimpse of what Hall’s role could look like at full strength, rarely ever leaving the field, playing on 78% of the Jets’ offensive snaps in Weeks 16-18, seeing 32.3 opportunities per game, averaging 31 touches, 169 scrimmage yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game during that span.

As great as Hall has been these last two seasons, he’s been much more productive as both a rusher and receiver playing without Zach Wilson.

Tyler Conklin, TE

Tyler Conklin has been a solid contributor for the Jets, seeing exactly 87 targets in back-to-back seasons, finishing behind only Garrett Wilson for second on the team in receiving yards in 2022 and 2023. He was one of only three players on the team to see 50-plus targets and/or catch 25-plus passes last season, trailing Wilson and Breece Hall in both categories. Conklin has been viable as a streaming tight end in his two-year tenure in New York, but like the rest of the team, a lot easier to trust in starting lineups without Zach Wilson.