Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The FTN Fantasy Splits Tool rolls along in the postseason, where I’ll be looking at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook in the playoffs. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.
It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!
FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.
San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
49ers -2, O/U 47.5
49ers
The 49ers remained perfect at home in the playoffs under Kyle Shanahan, overcoming a 17-point deficit in the Conference Championships to defeat the Lions 34-31. The offense struggled early in the game but started hitting its stride in the second half, scoring 27 unanswered points. Brock Purdy’s efficiency has regressed in the postseason, completing just 61.43% of his passes on 70 dropbacks. However, he’s added a new element to his arsenal with his legs, averaging 31 rushing yards per game.
In the regular season, Purdy recorded double-digit rushing yards just four times in 16 games, eclipsing 20 yards on the ground once. As great as the Chiefs’ defense has been, it has been susceptible on the ground, ranked top five in DVOA against the pass (-7.2%, fifth), but 27th against the rush (-1.7%). They have allowed over 50 rushing yards to opposing signal callers in back-to-back games, after giving up the 10th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks in the regular season (20.1 rushing yards per game). Christian McCaffrey will obviously be the focal point of the rushing attack, but Deebo Samuel is also set up well on his handful of carries, showing no signs of rust or limitations by his shoulder.
The same cannot be said about George Kittle, who suffered a toe injury late in the game and opened the week as a DNP. Per the SIC player insight report, “By video, suffered apparent right toe injury during second half of NFC Championship round — injury mechanism did not appear severe and he remained in the game to block during final drive — no chance of missing Super Bowl LVIII.”
Chiefs
The Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl looking to defend their title, champions of the AFC for the fourth time in five seasons. They haven’t been nearly the same force on offense as in years past but have started to come alive in the playoffs, featuring their veterans. Travis Kelce has turned back the clock in the postseason, recording 5-plus receptions and over 70 yards in all three games, scoring three touchdowns in the last two weeks.
Rashee Rice has started to tail off since his monstrous playoff debut, held to under 50 yards in back-to-back games. Still, his volume has been encouraging, catching eight passes on nine-plus targets in two out of three games. Since Week 12, Rice has a team-high 27% target share, averaging nine targets, seven receptions and 82.3 receiving yards over his last nine games.
Rice has been dealing with an ankle and hamstring injury but should be fully healthy in two weeks, facing a 49ers secondary that allowed the fourth-most receptions (13.6) per game to opposing wide receivers in the regular season.
The Chiefs may air it out more than usual on the big stage, listing Isiah Pacheco as a DNP Wednesday. Pacheco’s been tending to a foot injury, but based on his 90 SIC score, he should be a full go by kickoff.
Super Bowl Props to Consider
Travis Kelce 25+ Receiving Yards Each Half
(+115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Travis Kelce has recorded 25-plus receiving yards in each half of every playoff game, averaging 87.3 receiving yards in the postseason. He’s seen a significant uptick in usage, earning a target on 27% of his routes, leading the team with a 30% target share over the last three games.
Isiah Pacheco Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Isiah Pacheco has 66-plus in seven out of the last eight games (not counting Week 16, when he exited early with a concussion). He’s averaging 96 rushing yards over his last four games, and 21 rush attempts in the playoffs.
Isiah Pacheco & Christian McCaffrey 15+ Rush Attempts
(-120 parlay, Bet365)
Isiah Pacheco has handled 15-plus carries in 11 of his last 13 games with a full complement of snaps, averaging 21 rush attempts in the playoffs.
Christian McCaffrey has failed to exceed 15 carries just four times this season, recording 17-plus rush attempts in back-to-back games, playing on 95% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps in the playoffs.
George Kittle Over 47.5 Receiving Yards
(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
George Kittle has topped his 47.5-yard receiving prop in 10 out of his last 14 games, averaging 76 yards receiving yards since Week 7. He has a 20% target share on the season, tied for second on the team behind only Brandon Aiyuk (24%), and gets to face a Chiefs secondary that had allowed the eighth-most targets (7.5) per game, to opposing tight ends in the regular season.
Brock Purdy Over 11.5 Rushing Yards
(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Brock Purdy is averaging over 30 rushing yards in the playoffs (31), handling five-plus carries in each playoff game. Up next, Purdy faces a Chiefs defense that was one of 11 teams to allow 20-plus rushing yards (20.1) per game to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season, giving up over 50 yards on the ground to the last two quarterbacks they faced in the postseason (Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson).
