Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 1 of the NFL season is almost here, with the league now less than 10 days out from kickoff. I’ll be wrapping up the offseason edition of the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool by looking at one of the more critical situations to monitor as we look forward to the upcoming league year.
The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate how different situations and environmental factors can impact individual players and teams based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching, current or former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.
Kyler Murray’s Return
At this time last offseason, there were questions about whether Kyler Murray would still be a Cardinal in 2024, still recovering from a torn ACL. With Steve Keim stepping down, Arizona brought in an entirely new front office, featuring former Titans director of player personnel Monti Ossenfort as the general manager and former Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon as head coach. With no ties to the players currently on the roster, there was a wide assumption that the new regime was headed toward a rebuild, possibly entering the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. There was no timeline for Murray’s return, but it was clear that he would not be available at the start of the season after being placed on the PUP list.
As a result, the Cardinals traded for Joshua Dobbs, who would go on to start the first seven games before getting shipped out to the Vikings, replaced by fourth-round rookie Clayton Tune. From Week 1, it was clear Arizona had no interest in throwing the season away, staying competitive in every game despite pretty poor play under center. Once he was cleared to return, Murray was immediately thrust back into the lineup, leading his team to a 25-23 victory against the Falcons that broke a six-game losing streak. Even with nothing to play for, the Cardinals won three of their last eight games in a brutal stretch, facing five teams that would eventually go on to make the playoffs.
With Murray back at the helm, the offense really started hitting its stride, averaging the ninth-most yards and 10th-most points per game from Weeks 10 on, inside the top 10 in EPA per play during that span. Health has been an issue for Murray, but it’s easy to forget the last time he played more than 14 games (2020), the 2020 No. 1 overall pick was putting up MVP numbers, totaling 3,971 yards and 26 touchdowns through the air, to go along with 819 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground.
Below, I’ll be using the splits tool to break down the impact of Murray’s presence on the most notable pass catchers still on the team from last season.
Michael Wilson, WR
Michael Wilson was the first offensive skill player drafted by the new regime, selected on Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft at 94 overall. He missed four games with a lingering neck and shoulder injury, but showed flashes as a rookie, totaling 38 grabs on 58 targets for 565 yards and three touchdowns. Wilson wasn’t much of a target earner, but fared well as a deep threat, posting a 65.5% catch rate on a 14.1-yard aDOT, ranked sixth among all wide receivers in ESPN’s catch rating (80). Once Kyler Murray returned, Wilson saw a slight uptick in targets, but was far less productive with his looks, averaging just 2.6 receptions for 32.8 yards over his last five games, held without a catch twice during that span.
He did end the season strong, catching all six of his passes for a career-high 95 yards in the finale. A full offseason with Murray should help Wilson’s development, but it may be difficult to trust him in managed leagues with the addition of one of the best wide receiver prospects to enter the NFL in Marvin Harrison Jr. Greg Dortch getting promoted from the WR4 to the starting slot also quietly hurts Wilson’s target share, who often looked like the best receiver on the field with a full complement of snaps.
Trey McBride, TE
Cardinals second-year tight end Trey McBride again opened last season behind Zach Ertz, playing on less than 60% of the offensive snaps in each of the first seven games. Once Ertz went down, McBride was finally elevated into a full-time role, leading all tight ends with 25% target per route run and a 25% target share from Week 10. With Kyler Murray under center, McBride averaged 6.6 receptions on 8.3 targets for 67.3 yards, leading the position in nearly every receiving category.
His 14.8 full-PPR and 11.5 half-PPR points during that span would have led all tight ends in 2023, finishing as a TE1 in seven of his last eight games. He was the clear No. 1 target in the offense, and still has top three upside entering 2024 even with the addition of Harrison.
