Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With NFL preseason games in full swing, I’ll be using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the key situations to monitor throughout the offseason. The Splits Tool is a great way to dissect how certain environments and situations impact different players or teams based on spreads, locations, coaches, current or former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.
Brady’s Bills
After a humiliating 24-22 loss on prime time to the Russell Wilson-led Broncos in Week 10, it was time for Buffalo to make a change, sitting outside the playoff picture looking in, with an even 5-5 record 10 weeks into the season. They let go of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey the following day, promoting second-year quarterbacks coach Joe Brady as the new play caller. Even on a short week, the Bills offense got right back on track after making the transition, demolishing the Jets 32-6 and picking up a much-needed divisional win. With Brady at the helm, Buffalo went on a 6-1 run to close the regular season, defeating Miami in the finale and gaining possession of first place in the AFC East, winning their fourth consecutive divisional title. Their hot streak carried over into the playoffs, cruising to a 31-17 victory against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round. They lost in the next round, 27-24 in overtime to the eventual champion Chiefs. Still, Brady was rewarded for his efforts by getting promoted to the full-time offensive coordinator with a full offseason to implement his system.
Below, I’ll be using the Splits Tool to quantify Brady’s impact on the team by looking at Buffalo’s key offensive players still with the team in 2024.
Josh Allen, QB
Josh Allen is coming off an MVP-caliber season and may have won the award if the team had produced a better record. He was top five in the NFL in both passing yards (4,300) and passing touchdowns (29), leading all quarterbacks in PFF overall offense (92.1) and passing grade (88.1). As great as Allen was through the air, he was arguably even more dominant with his legs, finishing as one of just four signal callers with at least 500 rushing yards (524), setting a single-season record and tying for first at the position in rushing touchdowns (15). No player found the end zone more frequently than Allen, with 44 combined passing and rushing touchdowns, tied for 11th all-time in a single season.
After transitioning from Dorsey to Brady as the offensive coordinator, Allen’s passing numbers dropped off at the back half of the season, with him playing a much larger role as a rusher.
He finished as the QB1 on the season but averaged 3.7 more fantasy points per game with Brady calling the shots. Losing his top wide receivers in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis hurts Allen’s outlook in 2024, but the Bills have been active in the free agent market, most notably bringing in Curtis Samuel, who had his best season playing alongside Brady in the final year the two shared in Carolina, handling 118 touches for 1,051 yards from scrimmage through 15 games in 2020. They also used their first pick on a receiver, selecting Keon Coleman at the top of Day 2 in the 2024 NFL Draft (No. 33).
James Cook, RB
Second-year running back James Cook thrived in his new role as the starter last year, totaling 1,122 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground to go along with 445 yards and 6 touchdowns through the air. He finished fourth in the NFL in rushing yards and third in yards from scrimmage despite playing on just 55% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps during the season. Once Brady took over as the playcaller, Cook’s snap share slightly dropped, but his production skyrocketed across the board, seeing a significant increase in opportunities and touches, both as a rusher and receiver.
Entering year three, Cook could see even more work as a pass catcher, posting a 23% target per route run rate over his last nine games under Brady.
Khalil Shakir, WR
Khalil Shakir was buried in the depth chart at the start of the season, trailing both Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty in snaps as the third wide receiver, running a route on just 18% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks through the first seven games. That all changed in Week 8, when Shakir broke out for a 6-catch, 92-yard performance, taking full control of the WR3 role for the rest of the season. Under Brady, Shakir saw a 13% target share, averaging 3.3 receptions and 48.7 receiving yards over his last nine games (playoffs included).
With Diggs and Davis no longer on the team, Shakir is poised for a year three breakout, entering 2024 as the only starting receiver still on the roster from the previous season.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
First-round tight end Dalton Kincaid had no trouble transitioning to the next level, setting a franchise record in rookie receptions with 73 grabs on 90 targets, trailing only Diggs for second on the team in both categories. As great as Kincaid was, he really didn’t get going until Dawson Knox was forced out of action due to a wrist injury.
Despite trading up for Kincaid, the Bills had no intention of getting their incumbent starter off the field after Knox had recently signed a hefty extension — he outsnapped the rookie tight end 270-242 in the first five games. Knox went down in Week 7, and Kincaid immediately became one of Allen’s go-to options, catching all eight of his passes for 75 yards with 11.5 half-PPR points on the day. With Knox out, Kincaid finished as a TE1 in five out of six games and saw 7.5 targets per game on 6.5 receptions for nearly 60 yards (59.3) and 11.2 half-PPR points during that span. Kincaid’s production took a significant hit with Knox back in the lineup following the break, and he played on less than 60% of the Bills’ offensive snaps in five of the last six games, including the playoffs. On the surface, Kincaid’s production looks worse under Brady, but that likely has to do with Knox returning to the lineup in seven out of the last nine games.
With both tight ends available, Buffalo ran out of 12 personnel at the third-highest rate in the league (26%), a number that should only increase without Diggs and Davis, meaning Kincaid and Knox should play alongside each other a lot more this upcoming season.
