NFL Splits Tool: Big Change in Minnesota

Kickoff of the 2024 NFL season is right around the corner, with Week 2 of the preseason in the books. As we get closer to the start of the season, I’ll be using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the most critical situations to monitor for the upcoming league year.

The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate how different situations and environmental factors can impact individual players and teams based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching, current or former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

A New Era in Minnesota

After an 0-3 start to the season and losers of four of five, Minnesota was on the verge of an utter collapse, set to play without Justin Jefferson for an undisclosed amount of time after he landed on IR with a Week 5 hamstring injury. Even without the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, the Vikings rallied behind head coach Kevin O’Connell, ripping off five consecutive wins despite also losing Kirk Cousins in Week 8 to a torn Achilles. Unfortunately, their hot streak came to an end in the back half of the season when the team lost six of its last seven games, rolling out a combination of Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens down the stretch, and missing T.J. Hockenson in the final two weeks due to a torn ACL and MCL. They ended with a 7-10 record, logging double-digit losses for the first time in a decade, since going 5-10-1 in 2013. 

Entering the offseason, Minnesota was seemingly ready to run it back with what they hoped would be a nearly healthy roster by the start of 2024. They were in talks of bringing back Cousins on a short-term deal before he left for a four-year deal in Atlanta. Instead, the Vikings extended Jefferson, making him the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL, with $110 million guaranteed. They looked replaced Cousins, first by signing Sam Darnold to a one-year deal, and then circling back to the position in the draft, trading up to 10th overall and selecting J.J. McCarthy off a year in which he led the Michigan Wolverines to their first National Championship since 1997. McCarthy was raw as a prospect, failing to surpass 3,000 yards through the air in back-to-back seasons, averaging less than 200 passing yards per game (196.9). He wasn’t asked to do much but knew how to win, posting a 27-1 record as the starter and logging the highest winning percentage in FBS history (96.4%). There are question marks on how McCarthy would fit in O’Connell’s pass-centric, air raid scheme, but in the end, we won’t get an answer until at least 2025, with the rookie signal caller likely done for the season after meniscus surgery.

As a result, Darnold gets a shot to revitalize his career without much competition behind him, already named the starter for Week 1. In this article, I’ll be using the Splits Tool to break down how the most notable pass catchers fared without Cousins last season to help predict their future outlook.

Justin Jefferson, WR

Justin Jefferson picked up right where he left off last year, totaling 33 grabs for 549 yards through the first four weeks of the season, leading the NFL in targets (47), receptions and receiving yards, averaging 25.8 PPR and 21.7 half-PPR points during that span, first among all wide receivers. He was on a record pace of 2,333-plus receiving yards before suffering a hamstring strain in Week 5. Jefferson was placed on IR the following week, missing the next seven games. When Jefferson returned, Cousins was already ruled out for the season, with the star receiver catching passes from mostly Mullens plus a smattering of Dobbs and Hall over the final five games. He played only 13 snaps in Week 14 before taking a brutal hit to the chest but thankfully did not have to miss any more. Even with the extended absence, Jefferson eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards (1,074) for the fourth consecutive season despite playing less than 10 full games. Without Cousins, Jefferson’s production actually increased across the board, seeing 11 targets per game with a full complement of snaps, averaging 7.5 receptions, 119 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns from Week 15 on. 

He saw a team-high 32% target share over his last four games, up to 33% in Weeks 17-18 without T.J. Hockenson, who is still on the IR with an unknown return timeline.

Jordan Addison, WR

Minnesota’s 2024 first-round pick Jordan Addison balled out in his first season, totaling 70 grabs for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns, finishing as a top-24 wide receiver in fantasy. He finished third among all rookies in targets (108) and receiving yards, tied with Sam LaPorta for first in the class and fourth in the NFL in receiving touchdowns. Despite finishing as a WR2, it was hard to bank on Addison for consistent production, ranking outside the top 30 at the position in over half of his games (9/17, 52.9%). He was a more comfortable start without Jefferson, averaging 14.7 full-PPR points and 12.2 half-PPR points in 10 games without his running mate.

It was even harder to trust Addison without Kirk Cousins, with the rookie scoring just over double-digit full-PPR points (10.5) and 8.7 half-PPR points from Week 9 on despite playing without Jefferson in four out nine games (44.4%).

With a healthy Jefferson and Sam Darnold under center, it’s hard to envision Addison progressing in year two. However, he should still be the clear second target at the start of the season, assuming T.J. Hockenson is out, likely needing some time to get fully accumulated into the new offense. In two games without Hockenson, Addison saw an 18% target share, while no other player outside of Jefferson (33%) saw more than 8%. 

T.J. Hockenson, TE

Fresh off a new extension, T.J. Hockenson put together a career year in his second season with Minnesota, logging 95 receptions on 127 targets through 15 games for 960 yards and five touchdowns. He was one of the few separators at tight end, second at the position in both receiving yards and fantasy points 16 weeks into the season. Without Justin Jefferson, Hockenson saw a significant uptick in volume, seeing just short of double-digit targets per game (9.9) while averaging over receptions (7.1) for 76 yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game. 

His production was nearly identical with and without Kirk Cousins, operating as the No. 1 target with Jefferson out no matter who was playing quarterback.

Hockenson may not be ready at the start of the season, but still has tremendous upside assuming full health.