Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Each week in this space, we’re picking out our favorite same-game parlay for the Sunday action to get in on the betting action.
As we enter Week 17 of the NFL season, the playoff races are tighter, and the weather is better than last week.
With 14 games Sunday, there are many different possibilities for you to build an SGP, but I like the situation in Kansas City more than any other. The Chiefs (12-3), winners of three straight, come into Sunday as the No. 2 seed in the AFC, behind only the Bills. Andy Reid and Kansas City will look to keep pace with, and potentially surpass, Buffalo for the top seed in the AFC. Meanwhile, the hapless Broncos (4-11) fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett Monday following a 51-14 drubbing to the Baker Mayfield-led Rams.
Chiefs Kingdom will not fall this weekend.
DraftKings NFL Week 17 Same Game Parlay
Travis Kelce Over 69.5 Receiving Yards
Jerick McKinnon Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline
+265, DraftKings Sportsbook
As we near the end of the season, I choose to focus on core plays with strong likelihoods of hitting, so while you might not get rich (roughly 2.5/1 odds), I love this play.
Travis Kelce has silenced the offseason debate about whether Mark Andrews dethroned him as the league’s best tight end last season. Kelce’s 1,257 receiving yards are over 400 more than T.J. Hockenson’s 839 (currently second at tight end). Over his last eight games, Kelce has surpassed the 69.5-yard threshold in six, and this week he gets a Denver defense that struggles against the position. This season, the Broncos have surrendered 62.4 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends. They are directly responsible for the resurrection of Tyler Higbee, who went for nine receptions, 94 yards and two touchdowns last week. The Chiefs have allowed teams, including Denver in Week 14, to stick around late into games, so I expect Kelce to have plenty of targets on his way to smashing this over.
Jerick McKinnon enters Week 17 as a potential fantasy league winner and a lock for this SGP. McKinnon has topped 29.5 receiving yards in his last three games and will face a Broncos defense that allows 38.7 yards per game to pass-catching running backs. When the division rivals faced off in Week 14, McKinnon exploded for 112 receiving yards on nine targets. While I doubt he will repeat that performance, his receiving yardage prop is too low. The Broncos allow the fewest yards per game to opposing wide receivers (111.7), all but requiring running backs and tight ends to beat them. Look for McKinnon’s targets and yardage to see a major uptick as the Chiefs will look to avoid second-year cornerback Pat Surtain. More work for McKinnon? Yes, please.
The Chiefs have to win this week if they want to keep pace with the Bills (12-3), who own the head-to-head tiebreaker in the race for the AFC’s top overall seed. Patrick Mahomes will not lose this game in Arrowhead. While I almost never take the Chiefs to cover, I do like them to win this outright (-800) as a boost to the overall SGP.
Possible Frisky Alternative SGP: Sub out the McKinnon receiving yardage leg with a McKinnon Anytime TD play. This increases the odds to +525 and McKinnon has six touchdowns in his last four games with at least one in each contest. (+120 as a standalone bet on DK)
