NFL Player Prop Picks for Week 12

I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. I did, and it left me with food hangover brain — this was supposed to be a video. I ate so much food, though, that I no longer fit in the camera. So without further ado, here are my favorite prop picks for Week 12 in the NFL.

Matthew Stafford Continues to Air It Out

Over 272.5 passing yards, -114, FanDuel Sportsbook

Matthew Stafford has now played in 10 games this season and has now thrown for over 272.5 passing yards in all but two. His over rate of 80% is the highest hit rate of any prop posted for quarterback passing yards this weekend. He played the Giants and the 49ers in the two games he failed to hit this prop. In the Giants game, he was taken out early in the fourth quarter as the Rams blew out the Giants, something that is unlikely to happen as just one-point favorites on the road against the Packers. The other game was against the 49ers, who dominated time of possession, holding the ball for 39 minutes — again, highly unlikely to repeat itself. While the Packers rank seventh defensively in passing yards per game allowed, they have played four quarterbacks I would say are in the tier of Stafford in Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. Three of those four threw for over 273 yards against them. 

Dalvin Cook Finds Success on the Ground

Over 77.5 rushing yards, -114, FanDuel Sportsbook

Our soon-to-launch prop betting tool that compares all FTN projections across every sportsbook to find the greatest differences in the market has Dalvin Cook with the biggest positive or negative difference on the entire slate as we have him projected for 13 yards more than his current line. Cook continues to be fed week in and week out with only one game this entire season with less than 17 rush attempts and has gone over this number in 75% of his games this year, the highest hit rate of any rushing prop this season. 

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The Market Continues to Undervalue Deebo Samuel

Over 67.5 receiving yards, -110, BetMGM

Much like Cook, Deebo Samuel is projected to go over his prop number by 11.6 yards, the highest currently on the board. Don’t worry, you will be able to get your hands on this tool soon — the final touches are being put on it. Prior to last week’s beatdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Samuel had not seen fewer than five targets in a game, with eight games of at least eight targets. He takes on a Vikings secondary that has been porous of late — opposing WR1s (Amari Cooper, Marquise Brown, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams) have four straight games of 98 or more yards. While some might not consider Deebo in this realm of receiver, those people are ignoring how good he has been this season. Samuel leads football in yards per route run at 3.6 and is fourth in yards per target (11.4) and sixth in yards per reception (18.1).