NFL look-ahead lines report for Week 9

You want to win money betting on NFL games. That's why you're here. 

The challenge that most casual bettors run into though is their late call to action, i.e., betting moments before a game kicks off. Sure, we want to bet the game that we're watching, but at the end of the day, we want to win! Unfortunately, beating closing lines in the NFL is a long-term -EV proposition.

Each week of the season, I'll be providing a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of look-ahead lines, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. (I was using DraftKings for the first few weeks, but they stopped posting look-ahead lines, and suddenly no one posts totals). 

Look-ahead lines are typically released on Thursdays and are often taken down shortly after the current week's Thursday night game kicks off, though FanDuel seems to be leaving them up through Saturday if you have access to that sportsbook. This short look-ahead window provides a peek at how teams are valued prior to the start of the week, and it's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. 

These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of recency bias after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number was. 

Here's a look at the Week 8 lines, with the spread listed based on the home team:

Noonan's notes

• The Bengals, Browns, Rams and Eagles have a Week 9 bye.

• When I'm firing at these spots early, it's because I strongly believe that this number is going to beat the closing line, and perhaps, it ends up being the best of the number. Basically, if I'm right in Week 8, I'm going to have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 9.

• The 49ers (-1) absolutely boat-raced the Packers (+1) in both 2019 matchups, including the NFC Championship game. This will be a good test for Green Bay. In Week 8, I expect the Packers to handle Minnesota and the Niners to stub their toe up in Seattle, so I'll be interested to see if these moves Green Bay's way.
• I really like the Titans (-6.5) laying less than 7 to the Bears (+6.5). With that being said, I'm not going to bet it yet, because I think there's a chance that this drops down to 5.5 or 6. If I'm wrong, I'll avoid Tennessee and they'll end up as a locked-in teaser leg for me.

• It's interesting to see how much the Lions (+2) @ Vikings (-2) game has moved since the summer lookahead lines when nothing has really changed. The Vikings defense isn't suddenly terrible, they looked bad on paper before the season kicked off. Also, the Lions caught some preseason steam in the future's market, but I think that had more to do with the division as a whole and less specifically about the Lions' prospects as a team. At first glance, I'll likely be on the Vikings here if this stays under -3.

• With the shifting of games due to COVID-19, neither the Texans (pk) or Jaguars (pk) have a rest advantage against an opponent this season, because both teams are coming off a Week 8 bye. Brutal.

• Is the Washington Football Team (-3.5) the best team in the NFC East? I'm not sure, but they'll continue to set themselves up for a chance at the division with a home win against the Giants (+3.5) here. With Washington on a bye and the Giants set to get curb-stomped by Tampa Bay, this will only go up.

• The Seahawks (-1.5) are short road favorites in Buffalo (+1.5) in the dreaded-but-perhaps-overrated west-to-east early window spot in Week 9. Both teams have crucial divisional matchups in Week 8, so the outcome of those games will go a long way in dictating the movement here. I expect a total north of 54.

• The Cardinals (-5) have a Week 8 bye so they can do little to impact the court of public opinion this week, but Miami (+5) hosts the Rams for Tua Tagovailoa's debut. If things don't well for Tua and the Rams are able to run all over the Dolphins and cover, I think this opens back up at Arizona -7.

• There's no line posted for the Raiders/Chargers game, but this is back-to-back road games for Las Vegas, and both clubs are slated for close Week 7 contests. Regardless of those outcomes, this should open up between 2.5 and 4 on the Chargers side.

• Week 8 is the third-straight road game for the Steelers (-9.5). That would typically be a major red flag, but the current iteration of the Cowboys (+9.5) is a sight for sore eyes. Under 10, I'm in on the Steelers.

• A Week 1 NFC South rematch sends the Saints (+4) on the road for the second consecutive week, this time to face Tom Brady and the Buccaneers (-4). It's a short week for Brady and the Bucs, but their Monday tilt in New York against a depleted Giants club shouldn't take much gas out of their tank. The current line shows the shifting tide in this division.