NFL look-ahead lines report for Week 6

You want to win money betting on NFL games. That's why you're here. 

The challenge that most casual bettors run into though is their late call to action, i.e., betting moments before a game kicks off. Sure, we want to bet the game that we're watching, but at the end of the day, we want to win! Unfortunately, beating closing lines in the NFL is a long-term -EV proposition.

Each week of the season, I'll be providing a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of look-ahead lines, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. (I was using DraftKings for the first few weeks, but they stopped posting look-ahead lines, and suddenly no one posts totals). 

Look-ahead lines are typically released Thursdays and are often taken down shortly after the current week's Thursday night game kicks off, though FanDuel seems to be leaving them up longer if you have access to that sportsbook. This short look-ahead window provides a peek at how teams are valued prior to the start of the week, and it's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of recency bias after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number was. 

Here's a look at the Week 6 spreads, with the spread listed based on the home team:

(Keep in mind there is a lot going on in the league right now with COVID-19 positives, so lines could swing wildly or come off the board, or games could be postponed at any time.)

Noonan's notes

• The Raiders, Patriots, Saints and Seahawks have a Week 6 bye.

• When I'm firing at these spots early, it's because I strongly believe the number is going to beat the closing line, and perhaps, it ends up being the best of the number. Basically, if I'm right in Week 5, I'm going to have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 6.

• This is back-to-back road games for the Bengals (+7.5), who have closed the gap on the preseason look-ahead line despite the Colts' (-7.5) strong early start. I believe that the offseason improvements to the defense in Indy are real, but their early-season results are heavily skewed based on their laughably easy schedule. If the Colts wins at Cleveland in Week 5, this number will likely climb closer to the preseason line of 9.5, and if so, I'll have interest in Cincinnati if they're getting at least 9 points.

• The Dolphins (+1) play at San Francisco in Week 5, and they're staying out west for Week 6 in Denver (-1), wisely minimizing their east-to-west travel.

• The Lions (-1.5) travel to Jacksonville (+1.5) off their Week 5 bye, and they're a short road favorite in this spot. Jacksonville's early-season offensive success, if we want to even refer to it that way, is unsustainable. They've been incredibly efficient offensively when in the red zone, and their 5.3% 3-and-out rate is the second-best in the league so far. With that said, I don't think Detroit should be road favorites against anyone, though I was encouraged with how their offense played at times against the Saints in Week 4. I'm looking for an Over here if this total opens shy of 50.

• The Rams (+3) are on the road again in Week 6, traveling north to San Francisco (-3) after a Week 5 tilt on the east coast in our nation's capital. These Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan matchups have been fun since they both took over their respective clubs, but I really like this spot for the 49ers. They're getting healthier, and their run-centric offense is in a spot to thrive against the Rams, who are dead-last in rushing success rate allowed on the season. I can see this getting to SF -3.5, the preseason number was -6.5, so I'm taking the -3 now.

• The Bears (+2.5) are a fraudulent 4-1, and I want to short them as much as possible moving forward. This game at Carolina (-2.5) is off the board now because the Bears played Thursday night. I expect it'll open closer to a pick 'em, and if the Panthers lose to the Falcons in Week 5, I believe Chicago will be favorite when this game comes back up on the board. Wait on this one because I think it'll move towards the Bears. I'll happily take the points and back Carolina at home.

• It's difficult to break down the Chiefs (-3.5) at Bills and Titans at Texans (OFF), but I expect I'll have some interest in the Chiefs plus the Over in both spots, depending on the price.

• I don't think the Falcons (+3.5) are a good football team. That is not a hot take. Atlanta's defense is 30th in points per drive allowed, and they're allowing a top-five rate of explosive plays both on the ground and through the air. The Vikings (-3.5) defense isn't much better, but Dan Quinn feels like a man who's going for a long walk on a short plank, and I want to be on the other side of all things Atlanta until they make what seems to be an inevitable coaching change. This total will be at least 54.

• Week 6 is the third straight road game for the Arizona Cardinals (+3.5), who spent back-to-back weeks on the East Coast against the Panthers and Jets (assuming Sunday’s game came happen), and now travel to Dallas (-3.5) Monday night.