NFL look-ahead lines report for Week 2

The 2020 NFL Football season is underway, and the content team here at FTN is ready to put you in a position to make 2020 the most profitable NFL season of your life. 2020 owes us that! It's the least that it could do.

You want to bet on NFL games, that's why you're here. 

The challenge that most casual bettors run into though is their late call to action, i.e., betting moments before a game kicks off. Sure, we want to bet the game that we're watching, but at the end of the day, we want to win! Unfortunately, beating closing lines in the NFL is a long-term -EV proposition. To better understand closing line value, check out Anthony Amico's series from earlier this off-season on the topic. In short, this is where look-ahead lines can be of value.

Each week of the season, I'll be providing a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of look-ahead lines, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Look-ahead lines are typically released on Thursdays and are often taken down shortly after the current week's Thursday night game kicks off, but perhaps your bookmaker handles them differently. This short look-ahead window provides a peek at how teams are valued prior to the start of the week, and it's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of recency bias after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number was. 

Here's a look at the Week 2 spreads:

Noonan's notes:

• I jumped on the 49ers quickly after going through last week’s article, and it’s already moved from 5.5 to 6. I wouldn’t be surprised if it moves again, and I like it still at 6 or 6.5.

• I did the same thing with the Steelers, jumping on them at -5.5 for their home opener against Drew Lock and the Broncos.

• If the Ravens destroy the Browns, this -5.5 against the Texans will close at 7 or higher.

I believe that the game totals market can be exploited, and I think the biggest inefficiency in the market is individual team totals. The majority of bookmakers don't post individual team totals until Saturday or Sunday because they know that the line is inefficient. It's simply derived from subtracting the point spread from the game total, and it isn't something that bookmakers focus specifically on setting. If they believed in the number, they'd post it early in the week with all the other game-specific lines. Focus on totals that are short or over key numbers like 17, 21, 24 and 27.

For the sake of this column, I'll be using the implied-team total until the number is live, but here's a look at Week 2's totals:

Noonan's notes:

• If the 49ers have all their guns on defense in Week 2, I’ll be on the under 18.75 for the Jets team total.

• I’m bullish on this Panthers offense, and I think there’s a chance that their 20-point team total climbs towards the key number of 21 after Week 1’s slate comes to a close.

• The hook will kill you at times, but I’m not a big believer in this Dallas defense. If the line moves here, I’ll be looking closely at the Falcons team total.

• The Chiefs struggled in the red zone at times on Thursday night, and still managed to top 30 points.