Bettings
article featured image background
Article preview

NFL look-ahead lines report for Week 10

NFL Bets

Authors

Share
Contents
Close

You want to win money betting on NFL games, that's why you're here. 

The challenge that most casual bettors run into is their late call to action, i.e., betting moments before a game kicks off. Sure, we want to bet the game that we're watching, but at the end of the day, we want to win! Unfortunately, beating closing lines in the NFL is a long-term -EV proposition.

Each week of the season, I'll be providing a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of look-ahead lines, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Look-ahead lines are typically released Thursdays and are often taken down shortly after the current week's Thursday night game kicks off, though FanDuel seems to be leaving them up through Saturday if you have access to that sportsbook. This short look-ahead window provides a peek at how teams are valued prior to the start of the week, and it's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. 

These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of recency bias after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number was. 

Here's a look at the Week 10 lines, with the spread listed based on the home team:

GAME

PRESEASON LOOKAHEAD LINE (5/18)

CURRENT LOOKAHEAD LINE (11/5)

Colts @ Titans

-1

-1

Bengals @ Steelers

-10

-10.5

Texans @ Browns

-2.5

-2.5

Jaguars @ Packers

-12.5

-13.5

Eagles @ Giants

+5

+3

Buccaneers @ Panthers

+8

+6.5

Washington @ Lions

-5

-4

Bills @ Cardinals

+2.5

-2.5

Broncos @ Raiders

-1.5

-4

Chargers @ Dolphins

+0.5

-1.5

49ers @ Saints

-1.5

-7

Seahawks @ Rams

-0.5

-1

Ravens @ Patriots

+3.5

+6.5

Vikings @ Bears

-0.5

-1.5

Noonan's notes

  • The Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs and Jets have a Week 10 bye.
  • When I'm firing at these spots early, it's because I strongly believe that this number is going to beat the closing line, and perhaps, it ends up being the best of the number. Basically, if I'm right in Week 9, I'm going to have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 10.
  • This Colts (+1) and Titans (-1) game will go a long way in determining the outcome in the AFC South this year. I love the Ravens in Week 9 at Indy, and I expect the Titans to handle business at home against the Bears, so I believe this will open back up at Tennessee -2.5 or 3. If you like the Titans here, act accordingly.
  • Hopefully, the Bengals (+10.5) used their Week 9 bye to get healthy upfront because they're headed to Pittsburgh (-10.5) for the Steelers' first home game in nearly a month. The Bengals were able to hide their OL issues a bit in Week 8 against the Titans, who rank 24th in pressure rate and have the league's worst adjusted sack rate. The Steelers' defense leads the league in both of those categories and will do their best to make Joe Burrow look like a rookie in this spot.
  • I like this spot for Cleveland (-2.5), fresh off a bye, hosting a Texans (+2.5) team that's on the road for the second consecutive week. I believe that a good coach coming off a bye has an advantage, and I'm a Kevin Stefanski believer. With the Texans likely to handle Jacksonville in Week 9, I'm not in a rush to act early because a strong showing from Houston could drive this number down even further.
  • The Buccaneers (-6.5) travel to Charlotte for a Week 2 rematch against the Panthers (+6.5). Tampa cruised in the last meeting, getting up 21-0 at the half. With all that's going with the Buccaneers right now, they're becoming quite a public team. If you lean Tampa Bay here, 6.5 is likely the best of the number.
  • The Rams (-1) come off their bye to host the Seahawks (+1) who are on their second leg of back-to-back road games. The Rams covered both of the 2019 meetings between these clubs, both of which were 1-point spreads as well.
  • The Ravens (-6.5) are on the road again here in Week 10, this time in New England (+6.5). The Patriots haven't been a touchdown 'dog at home in a very long time, but this could work through the seven if the Ravens win big on Sunday against the Colts.
Previous Breaking down the course and the field for the Masters Next English Premier League bets for Matchweek 8