NFL look-ahead lines report for Week 1

Each week of the season, FTN’s Ryan Noonan will be providing a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of look-ahead lines, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

I've started and deleted eight different opening sentences to this, but all I really want to say is FOOOOTTTBALLLL!!!! We're back, baby! The 2020 NFL Football season kicks off in a matter of days, and the content team here at FTN is ready to put you in a position to make 2020 the most profitable NFL season of your life. 2020 owes us that! It's the least that it could do.

You want to bet on NFL games, that's why you're here. After six-plus months of social distancing, constant mask-wearing, hand-washing your groceries before putting them away and being made to feel like you're Bobby Sylvester at a #MeToo rally when you sneeze in public, we finally have real NFL games to watch. Without a live bet or a DFS sweat, watching the Raiders play the Jaguars on a Thursday night is an insufferable experience. God help us all. The good news is that nowadays, depending on your state, you can bet on that game and make it a little more enjoyable. I said a little, let's not get carried away here. 

The challenge that most casual bettors run into though is their late call to action, i.e., betting moments before a game kicks off. Sure, we want to bet the game that we're watching, but at the end of the day, we want to win! Unfortunately, beating closing lines in the NFL is a long-term -EV proposition. To better understand closing line value, check out Anthony Amico's series from earlier this off-season on the topic. In short, this is where look-ahead lines can be of value.

Each week of the season, I'll be providing a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of look-ahead lines, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Look-ahead lines are typically released on Thursdays and are often taken down shortly after the current week's Thursday night game kicks off, but perhaps your bookmaker handles them differently. This short look-ahead window provides a peek at how teams are valued prior to the start of the week, and it's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of recency bias after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number was. 

Week 1 is a bit of a different beast since this market has been available to bet into for months. Here's a look at Week 1:

Noonan's notes:

• Thursday's opening night kick-off game, a playoff rematch between the Texans and Chiefs, has moved off the key number of 10 and is now at 9.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. A half-point move seems small, but when those moves happen around key numbers like 3, 7 and 10, we have to take notice. That's also a huge move if you're into exotics (parlay and teaser bets).

• The Ravens are significant favorites at home in Week 1 against a divisional rival, the Cleveland Browns. This line move, from 10 down to 8, matches season-long optimism that's out there for the Browns.

• The single point move in Minnesota is noteworthy, moving in Green Bay's favor, down from 3.5 through the key number of 3, to 2.5.

• One of the biggest moves is in the Raiders/Panthers game, though a move through zero while staying below the key number of 3 is not as big of a deal as it would seem. If you're on the Panthers, just take their ML bet and skip the 2.5 points.

• After two relatively close high-scoring affairs in 2019, the Cardinals/49ers game has dropped from 9.5 to 7.

• A 2.5-point move in the NFC South showdown between the Buccaneers and Saints stands out but means rather little at the end of the day, with the half point offering lots of value to Tampa Bay backers. Just 8.5% of all NFL games over the past 20 years have finished with a 4- or 5-point margin of victory.

• The most significant move on the board is the first of two Monday night contests, with Pittsburgh now 4-point favorites on the road against the Giants. After opening as a PK back in April, the Steelers are now more-than-a-field-goal favorites in Week 1.

There's no greater overreaction period in sports than the mental gymnastics that take place between Weeks 1 and 2 of the NFL season. Here's a look at the current Week 2 market: